2022 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion

[MNstorms]

Make that 5 CC drops

[Cyclone-68]

Some live webcams of the Appleton/Green Bay Area if anyone is interested:

 

https://www.wearegreenbay.com/skyviewnetwork/

[nwohweather]

23 minutes ago, MNstorms said:

Make that 5 CC drops

5!? SPC definitely called it today

[A-L-E-K]

Late night consolation prize organizing along river

[Indystorm]

17 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Late night consolation prize organizing along river

Skilling thinks 10 p.m. to 2 a.m. will be the time frame.  Wonder if we will go under a svr watch later tonight.

[A-L-E-K]

Madison area crew took nice hit

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Indystorm said:

Skilling thinks 10 p.m. to 2 a.m. will be the time frame.  Wonder if we will go under a svr watch later tonight.

Not optimistic about that stuff making it in here in any respectable condition, but we'll see.

[madwx]

6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Madison area crew took nice hit

Went on a gentleman’s chase.  Was shelfy and outflow dominant the whole time

[Hoosier]

LOT no likey

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
837 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

Bottom Line Up Front:

Convective trends are somewhat unclear through the late evening,
but in the near term (within the next hour or so), signs point
toward a more hostile environment for maintenance or development
severe convection over the CWA. Conditions may eventually become
more favorable, but are thought not to be imminently favorable for
severe storms, so we`re not anticipating a watch until/unless
there is a change in convective trends.

In-Depth Details:

The thinking hasn`t changed significantly from the previous
discussion below. We`ve noted that thunderstorm cores over the DVN
CWA near the MS River have struggled with eastward extent toward
the far northwest CWA. This is likely owing to the mixing out of
dew points that occurred this afternoon and resulting in
increasing stability eastward (lower MLCAPE and increasing MLCIN)
on latest SPC mesoanalysis. With the cold front itself now pushing
into extreme northwest Illinois, the narrow moist axis featuring
strongest instability may be even more narrow than depicted on the
mesoanalysis graphics.

With the above being said, since we`re headed toward sunset and
loss of solar insolation, there is reason to cast doubt on near
term hourly guidance continuing to insist on the instability axis
folding eastward through the late evening, and thus lowers
confidence on an appreciable severe threat extending eastward into
the northwest and western CWA and points east. A mini segment of
convection has fired on the immediate cold front where there is
better boundary layer convergence from northeast Cedar County Iowa
to southwest Jo Daviess County. However, even here the strongest
core is quite small in areal extent, and with north-northeast
motion of individual cores, any threat from this cluster/segment
may stay west of our northwest CWA counties. Furthermore,
convective coverage is much more sparse south of this until
reaching intense convection over far northeast MO and southeast
IA.

Given the instability question and currently more hostile
environment in place approaching sunset, after collaboration with
SPC there are not imminent plans for a watch. We will continue to
closely monitor trends, as favorable deep layer bulk shear for
severe weather will remain in place, so if we see signs of
improving support for convective maintenance and intensification,
watch issuance may become needed for portions of the CWA.

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, madwx said:

Went on a gentleman’s chase.  Was shelfy and outflow dominant the whole time

Same, except I was on my way back after busting in Iowa. Nothing I was on really did anything, except for the cell becoming severe warned as I was coming through Verona and almost home. As I'd feared all the good action was up in the woods, and even that didn't last long in terms of significant/classic supercellular production. That signature near Oakdale around 21Z was gnarly, though. Appears Mauston narrowly avoided a major hit, as well.

At Barneveld just off 151:

 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Some of us could see some interesting stuff on the 4th 

[cyclone77]

Locally we've had some fun back in early March, and a nice hailer in May, but overall the region has been pretty slow this season.  I don't think I've even bothered digging into any model data at all this whole year (for severe), other than a quick glance at the overall setup.  It's just been very benign and uninteresting for the most part.  This region is overdue for a widespread medium to high-end severe setup.  

[CheeselandSkies]

3K NAM gets a little frisky with the MCS over southern WI/northern IL overnight Monday-Tuesday, and fires up another one Tuesday evening.

[CheeselandSkies]

17 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Locally we've had some fun back in early March, and a nice hailer in May, but overall the region has been pretty slow this season.  I don't think I've even bothered digging into any model data at all this whole year (for severe), other than a quick glance at the overall setup.  It's just been very benign and uninteresting for the most part.  This region is overdue for a widespread medium to high-end severe setup.  

We've had the setups, they just always verify up north in the trees (6/15) or something hoses them day of (3/28/20). August marginal risks are where it's at.

[CheeselandSkies]

SPC up to 5% on the prob at 13Z. Looks like another day this year I can't ignore, as much as I might want to (4/30, 5/19, 5/25).

[A-L-E-K]

Feeling dec about getting in on some remnants at minimum 

[CheeselandSkies]

13Z HRRR is, um... interesting.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[A-L-E-K]

Riding it obv

[Chicago Storm]

CAMS look to be useless today, given there’s no agreement.

Gonna have to ride observational trends.

[yoda]

Apparently there was a tornado in last night in Grand Island NE... in a stratiform rain shield

 

 

[Hoosier]

Looks interesting sometime somewhere.

[cyclone77]

Always nice to be within the slight risk in the SPC outlook 3 days in a row. 

[Chinook]

2 hours ago, yoda said:

Apparently there was a tornado in last night in Grand Island NE... in a stratiform rain shield

 

 

I noticed that close to midnight for me (1:00AM central time) and I was pretty surprised this was not associated with a notable individual cell. There must be some damage around US-34 on the edge of the city of Grand Island, and perhaps tracked northeastward for over 1 mile. I usually look at the Day-1 outlook issued at 06z (midnight for me) so I was looking at radar.

[Chicago Storm]

On 7/4/2022 at 10:57 AM, yoda said:

Apparently there was a tornado in last night in Grand Island NE... in a stratiform rain shield
 

 

 

 

On 7/4/2022 at 1:20 PM, Chinook said:

I noticed that close to midnight for me (1:00AM central time) and I was pretty surprised this was not associated with a notable individual cell. There must be some damage around US-34 on the edge of the city of Grand Island, and perhaps tracked northeastward for over 1 mile. I usually look at the Day-1 outlook issued at 06z (midnight for me) so I was looking at radar.

 

There was an embedded supercell.

A very Gulf Coast/land falling TC like situation.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

HRRR seems to be dropping the idea of significant supercells traversing southern Wisconsin this evening, despite some clearing nosing its way into SW WI.

[CheeselandSkies]

Tornado warning with the very HP supercell crossing I-39 just south of I-80. Go figure, rotation looked stronger before the warning went out.

Sporadic reports of minor wind damage with that southeast-moving line segment crossing the WI/IL line.

[CheeselandSkies]

"Here comes the sun..."

[vortex]

Severe warned cell near Thawville little bit ago.  

[CheeselandSkies]

I thought that little guy firing up over by Blanchardville looked suspicious. Could be what the HRRR was hinting at, although the signal weakened somewhat during the day.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1364.html

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Wondering if the less convection tonight could make tomorrow more interesting