ILSNOW Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Chicago NWS .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... Issued at 1102 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Concerns continue to focus on the best timing of possible significant severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall this afternoon into early this evening. A couple of MCV`s, with ongoing convection are present to our west-northwest. The first is located over northeastern IA, with another one farther northwest into MN. Concerns are that the extensive convection over southern MN into northeastern IA in association with these features will mature into one or two east- southeastward forward propagating MCS`s this afternoon into early evening as surface warm front (and the strongly unstable airmass to its south) shifts northward into parts of northern IL and northwestern IN. The airmass within and near the warm sector is already extremely unstable thanks to hot and humid surface conditions (temperatures into the 80s amidst dew points well into the 70s). In fact, MUCAPE was already calculated at nearly 6,000 J/KG on the 12z KILX RAOB, with mid-level lapse rates in excess of 8.5C per km in the EML. The instability gradient is expected to set up right over northern IL and southern WI into Lower Michigan this afternoon, and will essentially offer the pathway for any forward propagating MCS`s this afternoon. However, exactly where any MCS will propagate remains uncertain and will be tied to *when* the system develops. An earlier development over far western Wisconsin would place our area in the crosshairs, while a later development over eastern Wisconsin would favor a path entirely outside our area and in Lower Michigan. At any rate, the MCS will have the potential to produce significant severe winds in excess of 75 mph given the very impressive thermodyamics. Moreover, deep layer shear is expected to be enhanced this afternoon as a 50+ kt enhanced mid- level jet along the southern periphery of the MCVs shifts overhead. Accordingly the threat for damaging hail and tornadoes would exist, as well. And, not to be forgotten, torrential downpours will also accompany these storms given PWATs at or just above 2". It appears the main window of severe threat for the area will be after 2 or 3 pm this afternoon through 7 or 8 pm this evening. KJB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 If nothing else, Radarscope shows prolific lightning occurring along roughly a Reedsburg-La Crosse corridor.Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 53 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: This sub is weird because different parts of it can experience the same season so differently. I remember 2012 as the most boring and stormless summer of my adult life; all those derechos went south/southeast of here. I've experienced a lot more thunderstorms this year than I had by this point in 2021 (although chasing is a part of that, since I drove to some storms I wouldn't have experienced at home), while others like @hardypalmguy are still getting the shaft. Barely any thunder here this year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Just watching SW lower. With no squall line and not a lot of outflow from the elevated activity over WI, the chance for an isolated tornado near the lake breeze seems higher to me. SE winds plus lake breeze plus 50 kts of 0-6 shear would be scary if there is enough surface based instability. That's pretty limited right now, but maybe a tongue of 1000-2000 SBCAPE will come north into the SW corner eventually. The front seems kind of hung up at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Green County, WI warned for a hailer. 50 MPH storm motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 SPC being appallingly behind with the SWODY1 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: SPC being appallingly behind with the SWODY1 again. Not an easy day for them. Too quick to latch on to the squall line CAM solutions earlier today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Blob of nothingburger heading my way. Maybe I'll get a raindrop or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 New outlook out, mentions possible moderate risk upgrade for lower MI later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 48 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said: Barely any thunder here this year. Same. Had one rumbler about a month ago. Outside of that, nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 That little 60 kt 500mb jet will be the thing to watch I think. Maybe some supercells around if the cap breaks just a little southwest of the current elevated activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Should we make a thread for today? I'll make one and if not just delete it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 I'm surprised one hasn't been made yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Here's the link to the thread for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 Looking ahead to Wednesday...00Z HRRR and 3KM NAM are in...both agree that the unchaseable Northwoods get rocked (again) but rather different solutions for southern areas, naturally. Looks like temperatures could still be hot enough that LCLs will be an issue for threat except perhaps if moisture pools along a boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 Day 2 10 percent hatched tor in most of C WI into UP of MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 Not many posters from the biggest threat area, but tomorrow looks nasty in parts of WI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 49 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Not many posters from the biggest threat area, but tomorrow looks nasty in parts of WI. Excited for my late evening squall line. Maybe some QLCS fun 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Not many posters from the biggest threat area, but tomorrow looks nasty in parts of WI. Lots of folks are watching, though. Madison lost power on Monday and I doubt anyone is looking for a repeat performance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 Ryan Hall will be covering it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 i'll take the garden variety+ the nest is selling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 trash forcing and poor diurnal timing aside, should still be a good amount of lingering instability given the airmass in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 ACCAS forming overhead. Always a good sign on severe days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 20 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: trash forcing and poor diurnal timing aside, should still be a good amount of lingering instability given the airmass in place Captain obvious here but the earlier it can get in here, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 MOD risk coming today edit: Chicago lucked out the other day, really thought that storm was going to drop a strong tornado as it moved SE along that front 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 Just now, janetjanet998 said: MOD risk coming today Yep was just about to say that. Mentioned in the latest MD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 15% hatched tornado and 45% hatched wind on new outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 15, 2022 Author Share Posted June 15, 2022 I was 50/50 earlier in regards to heading to SW WI for today. Given terrain and questionable storm mode, opted not to head out. Will continue to watch things evolve through the day, and keep a watch on the border region (Far S WI & Far N IL) should things look more interesting (16z HRRR Environment). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 Models are not optimistic about much action around here until the front is east of Cedar Rapids. Cyclone has a much better shot at getting a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1176.html Let's get wild 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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