2022 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion

[CheeselandSkies]

Not really medium range yet and probably a mirage (August isn't known for it's high-predictability long range severe weather regimes) but SPC gives some hope, although I know @Chicago Storm is not a believer.

 

Quote

By late next week (around Day 8/Friday), some
   guidance suggests that the upper ridge may begin to break down. This
   may eventually allow rich low-level moisture to return northward
   across parts of the central CONUS.

   ..Gleason.. 08/12/2022

 

[Chicago Storm]

2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Not really medium range yet and probably a mirage (August isn't known for it's high-predictability long range severe weather regimes) but SPC gives some hope, although I know @Chicago Storm is not a believer.

 

 

Yea, I'm still not on that train for our sub-forum... ENS support is high for not only the pattern we've seen much of the summer to continue, but only become more significant and deeply entrenched. The below isn't what you want if you're looking for interesting weather (Quality heat or severe). Obviously that doesn't mean we can't see any warmer temps or any severe at all, it's just not a supportive pattern for anything good or consistent as it looks.

[outflow]

Now that the lakes are near or at there warmest I wouldn't mind some unseasonably cool temps for maybe a couple waterspout days.

[bowtie`]

6 hours ago, outflow said:

Now that the lakes are near or at there warmest I wouldn't mind some unseasonably cool temps for maybe a couple waterspout days.

Just the other day I happened to look at this and was surprised just how warm Ontario was.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Surprise marginal risk with 5/5/2 probs. Wasn't even really expecting rain today. Forecasts issued yesterday were like "Partly sunny with a 20% chance of showers," well, that 20% just hit here.

HRRR soundings for this evening look somewhat interesting in the state line region, but it doesn't really break out any supercells. I'll be in the area anyway since I was planning on heading to Illinois Railway Museum for Diesel Days today.

[CheeselandSkies]

This almost looks tornado-warning worthy, despite extremely marginal setup. Apparently there was a report of a funnel cloud with possible brief touchdown earlier in southeast MN.

[MNstorms]

There hasn't been much severe weather to follow as of late. Maybe this weekend will be active.

 

Classic bowling ball on Sunday.

[Hoosier]

CAMs don't look half bad for tomorrow, especially because expectations are low and the boring stretch makes it seem more exciting than it otherwise would be.  My main question is whether it will include this area or if activity won't reach maturity until just south.

[madwx]

Gonna be a tornado in NW Illinois soon

[CheeselandSkies]

12 minutes ago, madwx said:

Gonna be a tornado in NW Illinois soon

lol

[Chicago Storm]

CAMs don't look half bad for tomorrow, especially because expectations are low and the boring stretch makes it seem more exciting than it otherwise would be.  My main question is whether it will include this area or if activity won't reach maturity until just south.

There’s about three different possible solutions in play as well, with placement on each of them in question.

[Chicago Storm]

Gonna be a tornado in NW Illinois soon

Things are very messy overall right now.

Based on some minor digging and research I’ve done over the years… An MCV track of E or ENE is optimal and what you want to see for something more significant/widespread to be possible. A more NE or NNE MCV track hasn’t been as fruitful significant/coverage wise.

[CheeselandSkies]

Still, nice overachiever for a marginal (5% wind) day, which I wasn't even in yet currently am under a severe thunderstorm warning.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Some minor flash flooding in the DeKalb area. 2.16” of rain so far and still pounding. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

38 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Some minor flash flooding in the DeKalb area. 2.16” of rain so far and still pounding. 

3.10” now. Solid. 

[A-L-E-K]

Get it

[cyclone77]

1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

3.10” now. Solid. 

We had a massive mosquito invasion after our 2 incher last week so get ready lol.

[CheeselandSkies]

Out-of-nowhere Enhanced RIsk for northern Illinois. Day 3 outlook issued on Saturday had the area in a 5% (Marginal Risk).

[A-L-E-K]

hoping to avoid a miss south later

[Chicago Storm]

hoping to avoid a miss south later

4th and 8, grossman is your qb.

[A-L-E-K]

hoping for a quick strip and recovery after the int

[Radtechwxman]

Hrrr definitely underestimating current convection strength. Definitely an ofb with this activity pushing east and south. Hard to see with limited radar spacing where it's at currently and visible sat just now coming into light. Extensive cloud shield could really dampen instability into the afternoon but hoping for a quick recovery behind this. Wondering though if outflow from this will shunt threat further south. 

[A-L-E-K]

could be worse i guess

[A-L-E-K]

2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

4th and 8, grossman is your qb.

bust?

 

[WaryWarren]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0527.html

[Hoosier]

HRRR still doesn't have a good handle on the current convection, which suggests that its solution for later on is tossworthy.  Expect the severe threat to include areas north of where the HRRR has it.

[Harry Perry]

Really need to get some instability over here.. still socked in with thick low-level clouds. 14z HRRR out to lunch on current convection. 15z has it but doesn’t look to handle it all. 

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Really need to get some instability over here.. still socked in with thick low-level clouds. 14z HRRR out to lunch on current convection. 15z has it but doesn’t look to handle it all. 

Good observation about the HRRR.  Pretty drastic difference between the 14z and 15z HRRR (the latter of which I had not seen before my previous post).

[Chicago Storm]

For a little while this morning I was on the significant train, but watching how things have evolved the past few hours this morning, I’ve quickly exited the train a while ago.

The environment is fairly good overall, with… Ample moisture, ample instability, a disturbance moving through, a quality plume of higher lapse rates and some clear skies for heating. However, as noted by an expanding low level cloud shield ahead of the line, there is a stable layer in place. This, in part with a few other things (such as lagging shear), is limiting intensification. So instead right now we have a weaker line of t’storms moving east, with outflow racing out ahead. Maybe it’ll change in a few hours, but by then it might be too late for the Chicago area.

[Hoosier]

SPC doesn't sound all that enthused in the 1630z outlook text even though they still have a 30% hatched area.