CheeselandSkies Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 20 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: I somehow missed that gem. LOT doesn’t even have precip in the grids right now, let alone t’storms. Based on current guidance, that’s the way to go for now. I was once told by someone well known that the SPC is “The best at what they do”. Kind of comical, really. Day 4 outlook contains the entire state of WI. Here's MKX's take: Quote A strong shortwave is expected to rotate across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes Tuesday and Tuesday night, bringing a cold front into the area late Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Wind fields are fairly strong for this time of year, but the early morning timing is not particularly favorable for severe weather. Nonetheless, we`ll need to keep an eye on this risk for the midweek time frame, especially of timing speeds up (Tuesday afternoon) or slows down (pushing into the daytime hours Wednesday). They didn't even mention the Day 4 highlight, probably so as to avoid explicitly disagreeing with SPC, but it's pretty rare to see them implicitly do so anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 12 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Day 4 outlook contains the entire state of WI. Here's MKX's take: They didn't even mention the Day 4 highlight, probably so as to avoid explicitly disagreeing with SPC, but it's pretty rare to see them implicitly do so anyway. IWX decided to implicitly disagree with them in their afternoon AFD, citing models being all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Shocker: The Day 3 Outlook is greatly trimmed back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Apparently there was a possible tornado near Circleville, OH yesterday? One injury reported due to an RV being flipped. Damage to site-built structures looked low EF1 at most from video I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 18, 2022 Author Share Posted July 18, 2022 The Fri-Sun timeframe is looking interesting as we get closer. Definitely better ridge placement compared to the 4th of July week period, which likely will help things a bit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 On 7/18/2022 at 5:54 PM, Chicago Storm said: The Fri-Sun timeframe is looking interesting as we get closer. Definitely better ridge placement compared to the 4th of July week period, which likely will help things a bit. Holy shit, the environment on the 12Z NAM which just came into range for Saturday evening. Granted, it's the NAM at the tail end of its range and it doesn't appear to break out any discrete precip in that environment (just a big cluster in WI, presumably a bowing MCS) but I don't believe the model is capable of resolving that, anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 There have been a few tornado warnings today in Michigan and Ohio, and also some severe warned storms in Ontario. This may have been a real tornado, east-southeast of Mansfield. (report of a tree down at this location.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 Day 3 enhanced. One of the most extreme forecast soundings I've seen 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 Would it be too much to ask for a solid severe weather day on Wednesday? (I think I already know) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Would it be too much to ask for a solid severe weather day on Wednesday? (I think I already know) In all honesty, I've seen worse setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 31, 2022 Author Share Posted July 31, 2022 Would it be too much to ask for a solid severe weather day on Wednesday? (I think I already know)heat isn’t looking great (not surprisingly), so moving attention to severe? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: heat isn’t looking great (not surprisingly), so moving attention to severe? Faster timing has made me a little more interested locally. A couple days ago I didn't think there was a prayer of getting anything down here on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 Storms firing up in SE MN/NE IA rolling east overnight. Severe weather not expected, but could get a nice light show when I'm heading in to work (or just get drenched) depending on timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 brutal near miss on the nest, would be photogenic af tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 27 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: brutal near miss on the nest, would be photogenic af tho Seems too far south with initiation imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 Well this was a bit unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 skip job stank 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 Feeling good about today out here. Hoping for a localized windbag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 A severe-warned storm just moved through Cedar Rapids. I estimate the wind maxed at about 50 mph here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 Surprise slight risk upgrade and severe thunderstorm warning here. Not much impact in MBY, though...but it was pretty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 they kind of went crazy with warning polygons 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 14 minutes ago, Chinook said: they kind of went crazy with warning polygons Polypalooza Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 3, 2022 Author Share Posted August 3, 2022 A downburst frenzy with the severe t’storm activity in parts of the metro, as almost every t’storm has had downburst signature at some point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 48mph peak wind gust at O'Hare is sub-severe but pretty strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 3, 2022 Author Share Posted August 3, 2022 48mph peak wind gust at O'Hare is sub-severe but pretty strongPeak wind gust here at ORD today has been 38MPH, but not associated with any t’storm activity…just synoptic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Peak wind gust here at ORD today has been 38MPH, but not associated with any t’storm activity…just synoptic. I think MDW had the 48 mph gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 3, 2022 Author Share Posted August 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I think MDW had the 48 mph gust. Make sense given the action down that way. I haven't had a chance to look at the OBS out of there in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 10 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: skip job stank brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 Some tree damage in West Kankakee from the storms earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomp2mp Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 1.63" of rain here since 6PM. transformer blew up so our power has been out since 6:30. winds weren't too extreme. hope the power comes back on. jeopardy might not be recording on the dvr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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