Stebo Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 1 hour ago, frostfern said: What do y’all think of the chance for supercells tomorrow afternoon over Lower Michigan. Im thinking of driving up to Gaylord as the higher terrain seems more likely to break the cap. I’m thinking if something can get going it has the chance of dropping plains-style hail which is rare around here. It could also be a cap bust though. It's very unchasable. I'd say if you want to chase in the state just chase the thumb and hope something hits there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 1 hour ago, frostfern said: What do y’all think of the chance for supercells tomorrow afternoon over Lower Michigan. Im thinking of driving up to Gaylord as the higher terrain seems more likely to break the cap. I’m thinking if something can get going it has the chance of dropping plains-style hail which is rare around here. It could also be a cap bust though. I'm not trying to talk you out of it, but Stebo's right about crappy chasing territory and SPC's being pretty wishy-washy about the possibility of something popping the cap. But if it happens, Katie bar the door (and protect your windshield). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 11 minutes ago, Stebo said: It's very unchasable. I'd say if you want to chase in the state just chase the thumb and hope something hits there. I don't think anything will get to the thumb until after dark. I need to see what SPC is saying tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 20, 2022 Author Share Posted May 20, 2022 I need to see what SPC is saying tomorrow. don’t waste your time, they suck. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, IWXwx said: I'm not trying to talk you out of it, but Stebo's right about crappy chasing territory and SPC's being pretty wishy-washy about the possibility of something popping the cap. But if it happens, Katie bar the door (and protect your windshield). Almost everywhere in Michigan is crappy chasing territory. I will not drive under any core. In the past I drove up behind a small core and picked some 2" stones off the ground for pictures. Honestly, watching a squall line come in off Lake Michigan is usually what constitutes a good "chase" for me. It just hasn't happened this year so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Pathetic severe weather season yet again, but it can snow through April in Ohio, the new norm. Bring on the extreme torch and end this miserable, laughable season already of rain showers with embedded boring thunder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 1 minute ago, NTXYankee said: Pathetic severe weather season yet again, but it can snow through April in Ohio, the new norm. Bring on the extreme torch and end this miserable, laughable season already of rain showers with embedded boring thunder. I have only heard one semi-close lightning strike this season. Late April I think. All it does is drizzle lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Looks like Broyles 10% hatched nader over IA didn't quite pan out lol. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 35 minutes ago, frostfern said: I have only heard one semi-close lightning strike this season. Late April I think. All it does is drizzle lately. Yep, winter dominates and summer shows up for about 3-4 months up here anymore. It’s really sad when Minnesota can have enhanced risks that pan out and a slight risk barely materializes this way. I stopped looking forward to severe weather season several years ago in central Ohio. Once the snow stops at the end of April just bring on the SE Ridge, it saves frustration, I don’t mind the heat. Thought the early active track would change things, it didn’t. Just blew past us and up north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 This is a tornado in Illinois, very close to the radar outside of Evansville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Parameter space is pretty high end looking across Michigan tomorrow, but residual capping and no obvious forcing mechanism ahead of the cold front suggest any threat is conditional, at best. A few CAMs hint at storm development in northern Lower Michigan, but I think that’s pretty lousy terrain for storm chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 1 hour ago, frostfern said: I don't think anything will get to the thumb until after dark. I need to see what SPC is saying tomorrow. Id gamble on something coming in sooner than expected vs trying the forest north of US-10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 2 hours ago, frostfern said: I'm don't have access to raw model data so that's the best I have to go by. I have a feeling it will all be elevated behind the front and even that might miss north. Typical rare high cape situation going to waste. Hope that the elevated stuff in Wisconsin can survive the night and lay an outflow boundary somewhere toward the us10 area that something could fire and latch on too. Once you get north as others have said it's all hills/trees and a very spotty road network. Chances it happens are not high but it's better then trying to work up north. Or wait for a better day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 5% tornado area on new day 1 outlook. And despite no hatching, definitely agree with what was mentioned in this thread about some very large/sig hail potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 45 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 5% tornado area on new day 1 outlook. And despite no hatching, definitely agree with what was mentioned in this thread about some very large/sig hail potential. Good thing Broyles is finally off duty otherwise there'd be a 90% hatched tor high risk. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 I’ve given up on chasing. Cells will be moving NE way too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Monster circulation headed straight for Gaylord. I didn’t go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, frostfern said: Monster circulation headed straight for Gaylord. I didn’t go. This is/was a big tornado cc drop is large not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, outflow said: This is/was a big tornado cc drop is large not good Its looks bad news. I saw a debris signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Guess its good Im not there. It moved dangerously fast through a lot of trees. Hard to find an escape if caught. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Looks like it’s cycling now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Actually could've used a hatched hail in the OV yesterday. Quite a few 2"+ reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 The clear air CGs are impressive. Also looks like significant hail again. Too bad its in the middle of the woods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Far from the radar but pretty insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Google Maps traffic layer shows quite a bit of traffic right on the main drag in Gaylord. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Multiple injuries some trapped per scanner 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Gaylord Maps pic makes me sick. Looks like Chattanooga after our tornado. Ditto Scanner. Alas, we are still interested in severe and that is OK. We cannot control it. Anyway I am looking at Illinois and Indiana for meso-scale accidents on Saturday. Doubt anything will be learned from 00Z data. It is wake up in the morning and decide if I want to drive 5-6 hours for a low-probability event. Probably not, but I'll check. One scenario is stable rain-out. Other is quick end to morning rain. Leaves boundary south of synoptic front. I'm a fool for outflow boundaries. However the south part creates terrain issues. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Couldn’t quite catch back to to the tornado that hit Gaylord. I was in Mancelona when the supercell was wrapping up and becoming rooted near the surface. Traffic, curvy roads and deep woods proved detrimental. Hope everyone is okay, that was an impressive radar signature, especially for so far north. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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