2022 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion

[Hoosier]

9 minutes ago, frostfern said:

I'm not really expecting much severe, but a wet downburst situation with wind driven quarter size hail is certainly possible where any of the stronger updraft pulses suddenly collapse.  Flash flooding potential is also really high.  Too bad I'm feeling so sick from covid booster yesterday.  Ugh.  There's no way I'm driving around feeling this dizzy.

Been there with those covid shots.  Not very pleasant.  Feel better soon.  You should.  That's the good thing... the effects usually pass within a day or two.

[CheeselandSkies]

SPC has MD out mentioning potential for landspouts over northern IL. There's currently a severe-warned cell nearly stationary over Peru/La Salle.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0724.html

I'm planning to stay home in the A/C and watch the Bucks game.

[madwx]

Splitting supercells on the WI/IL border

[CheeselandSkies]

Splitting supercells on the WI/IL border

SVR EAS alert just interrupted my Bucks game on Spectrum... already more than happened yesterday ofc.

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[frostfern]

9 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Been there with those covid shots.  Not very pleasant.  Feel better soon.  You should.  That's the good thing... the effects usually pass within a day or two.

The first two I hardly noticed anything.  This third one gave me a fever, dizziness, and upset stomach similar to when I had covid after thanksgiving, just without any cough or runny nose.

[Brian D]

Radar is lit! Svr stuff staying in WI, tho. Heavy rain, and plenty of thunder on the door step.

[Powerball]

This unusual Ring of Fire setup has been very underrated, in the midst of talks about the drought and the heat...

[Powerball]

Also, derechos are one thing, but it's rare that you see one moving NNE like today in the Upper Midwest.

[madwx]

4 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Also, derechos are one thing, but it's rare that you see one moving NNE like today in the Upper Midwest.

It’s been rare until the past two years.  Now it’s happened 3 times.  6/6/20, 12/15/21 and today 

[Hoosier]

17 minutes ago, madwx said:

It’s been rare until the past two years.  Now it’s happened 3 times.  6/6/20, 12/15/21 and today 

This sounds out of place every time it's brought up.  What a crazy anomalous historic event it was.

[WeatherMonger]

2 confirmed tornados ongoing in west central IL. No watch out and SPC doesn't even have 2% chance in SWODY 1

[hawkeye_wx]

There is a strong storm with a nice hail core crawling right over Cyclone's house.

[cyclone77]

37 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

There is a strong storm with a nice hail core crawling right over Cyclone's house.

Yeah, a solid performer.  Picked up 1.25" of rain so far.  Had hail falling for over 15 mins, mostly peas with a period of nickels.  Lots of leaf pieces on the ground from the hail hitting the new tender leaves.

Down to a refreshing 66 degrees after hitting 96 earlier.  

[WeatherMonger]

Bit odd seeing a pulse squall line, thing has made very little progress east as it starts to weaken in the midsection.

 

Was worried about some dirt track races getting rained out, shouldn't be a problem at all. At least for the ones I'm wanting to watch.

[CheeselandSkies]

Haven't seen a drop here on the far west side, Storms training NNE just to my east. But my Bucks game keeps getting interrupted by warnings, mostly for other counties. Spectrum has got to get SAME technology, like weather radios have had for quite some time now.

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[cyclone77]

Been thundering for over 3hrs now.  Still raining.

[hawkeye_wx]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Been thundering for over 3hrs now.  Still raining.

Cedar Rapids may go the first three weeks of May without a rumble.  May/June is a bad time of year to get stuck in an unfavorable t-storm pattern.

[Chicago Storm]

2 confirmed tornados ongoing in west central IL. No watch out and SPC doesn't even have 2% chance in SWODY 1

They were landspouts.

[hlcater]

On 5/13/2022 at 8:20 PM, hawkeye_wx said:

Cedar Rapids may go the first three weeks of May without a rumble.  May/June is a bad time of year to get stuck in an unfavorable t-storm pattern.

It's looking up for us over the next 10 days or so.

 

System traversing the country Wed-Fri should yield tstm and perhaps severe wx opportunities.

[frostfern]

On 5/15/2022 at 12:30 PM, hlcater said:

It's looking up for us over the next 10 days or so.

 

System traversing the country Wed-Fri should yield tstm and perhaps severe wx opportunities.

The timing is bad for me as is usually the case.  Typical Michigan.  I pray to at least get SOME rain.  

[Hoosier]

Pulled up this forecast sounding for my area for Friday.  This EML would do the Plains proud

[Hoosier]

LOT not overly optimistic about Friday

 

The forecast guidance diverges significantly Thursday night into
Friday with the timing of an approaching cold front and associated
convective chances. For the 12z cycle, the GFS and a solid
majority of GEFS ensemble members were distinctly faster (~12-18
hours) than the remainder of the available guidance. While we`re
at a lead time in which we can`t completely discount the GFS/GEFS
solution, it is currently an outlier. A fairly complex interaction
with a strong ejecting trough near the Northern Plains/Canadian
Prairies border and additional short-wave energy across the High
Plains will determine the ultimate evolution of the strong surface
low tracking across the Northern Lakes into Friday and the timing
of its trailing cold front.

For now, while we`re carrying some PoPs, especially north after
midnight from GFS/GEFS influence in the NBM blend, the rest of the
gridded database leans toward the non-GFS consensus, for a
mild/warm and breezy Thursday night. With an extremely impressive
EML plume advecting northeastward across the area, that would seem
to argue for a dry/capped night barring a much faster frontal
timing, though on the other hand with the steep mid-level lapse
rate plume, can`t completely rule out convection, so have some
slight chance thunder mention.

On Friday, the pieces *could* come together for a severe threat in
the region, but confidence is fairly low due to the exceptionally
hot/dry/strong EML expected to be in place. In the currently
preferred frontal timing of the mid-late afternoon into the
evening, the stronger large scale forcing is off to the northwest,
with neutral to even slight mid-level height rises. The aforementioned
hot/dry EML advecting overhead atop low to mid 60s dewpoints in
the boundary layer looks to result in formidable capping that
appears pretty unbreakable through the early afternoon hours even
as a cold front begins to make inroads across northwest Illinois.

For this reason, thunder chances were capped at slight chance
until the late afternoon. The big question in this set-up (again
assuming the much faster GFS-like scenario doesn`t verify), is if
capping can be broken in the frontal zone warm sector. With the
aforementioned height rises, any lifting and cooling of the
capping inversion would be unlikely to occur until the late day if
not early evening. And that`s an if, as there does appear to be
potential for most convection to be elevated and post-frontal
(anafrontal), which itself would still pose some hail and wind
threat due to the very steep lapse rates, effective bulk shear up
to 35-40 kt, and low-level storm relative flow around 30 kt.
We`ll need to watch for any trend toward convectively induced
impulses that could work to break the cap earlier in the warm
sector, and up the ante for a surface based severe threat.

The above being said, while a severe weather threat certainly
exists later Friday afternoon and evening, with shear forecast to
trend to mainly boundary-parallel by the evening, and
north/northwesterly storm-relative winds suggesting the cold
front will have a tendency to undercut incipient updrafts, the
primary risk may actually be heavy rainfall as convective cores
re-develop and train. Broad ascent will only increase through the
evening as the main trough swoops in overhead, and this may keep
shower and diminishing thunderstorm chances going through the
overnight and increasingly likely through the day on Saturday
before moisture is finally scoured out Saturday night. The cooler
air mass north of the front along with waves of rain/showers could
make for a rather inclement day (especially coming off the recent
mainly warm stretch) on Saturday, with highs only in the mid 50s-
lower 60s.

[A-L-E-K]

dry fropa

[Brian D]

Svr watch went up. Nice line of stms moving in. Could get a little frisky.

[frostfern]

23 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

dry fropa

Most likely for me too.  These strong EML caps don't break over Lake Michigan during the afternoon.  The convection will probably happen after dark to the SE because the front slows down.

[WaryWarren]

40 minutes ago, Brian D said:

frisky

 

[Baum]

LOT new AFD: if,maybe,would,could,perhaps,possibility,chance.

BOLD.

[Hoosier]

While no one was looking, there are dual enhanced risks poking into the sub today.

[Chinook]

Today is already somewhat active with a few warnings near Evansville/Louisville and a couple in Minnesota and Missouri. SPC dropped the 10% risk for tornadoes up north and replaced it with 5%

[frostfern]

What do y’all think of the chance for supercells tomorrow afternoon over Lower Michigan.  Im thinking of driving up to Gaylord as the higher terrain seems more likely to break the cap.  I’m thinking if something can get going it has the chance of dropping plains-style hail which is rare around here.  It could also be a cap bust though.