Chicago Storm Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 34 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: . The main severe threat should be shifted east this season with the drought out west. Mildly optimistic about things especially as we head into summer. for this weekend, looking at a strongly forced line to push nw out of Iowa and give us some gusty winds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Yeah, for Saturday surface/500 mb look intriguing and have for quite a while, but paltry instability values have also been a consistent aspect of the model forecasts despite relatively high dewpoints for the latitude and time of year. As I've mentioned, it can happen but it takes absolutely on point kinematics and really cold air aloft (3/15/16 being a good example). At this point not really seeing a strong signal toward that, SPC's areal outline seems more like a "hedge our bets" type of forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 NAM suggests even more meager instability than the GFS despite what appear to be decent lapse rates ahead of the cold front...looks like Saturday will be a "save the gas and enjoy the rain" kind of day at this point. Would like to bottle that forecast 500mb pattern and repeat it in about 6-8 weeks, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: NAM suggests even more meager instability than the GFS despite what appear to be decent lapse rates ahead of the cold front...looks like Saturday will be a "save the gas and enjoy the rain" kind of day at this point. Would like to bottle that forecast 500mb pattern and repeat it in about 6-8 weeks, though. The NAM often struggles in the boundary layer for some reason at this time of year. I don't know if it thinks there's going to be snowcover or something. Would definitely side with warmer guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 I hope this isn't too far off topic. We have a La Nina winter, once again. Don't you think it is about time that a La Nina winter would bring about some springtime patterns favorable for greater than average tornadoes? I mean this possibly could be anywhere from the standard tornado alley all the way through "Ohio Valley Alley." The unusual part of this is that, this La Nina winter did bring about tornadoes, in WINTER, on December 10th and 15th. So you could argue that some of the Midwest is way above average for springtime tornadoes if you count December 1st as the beginning of springtime. on to the topic the 18z NAM has this in Iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Chinook said: I hope this isn't too far off topic. We have a La Nina winter, once again. Don't you think it is about time that a La Nina winter would bring about some springtime patterns favorable for greater than average tornadoes? I mean this possibly could be anywhere from the standard tornado alley all the way through "Ohio Valley Alley." The unusual part of this is that, this La Nina winter did bring about tornadoes, in WINTER, on December 10th and 15th. So you could argue that some of the Midwest is way above average for springtime tornadoes if you count December 1st as the beginning of springtime. on to the topic the 18z NAM has this in Iowa At a glance, that sounding ironically has a lot more CAPE than earlier runs, but wonky directional shear and paltry SRH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Who's heading to Iowa this afternoon/evening? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 3 hours ago, IWXwx said: Who's heading to Iowa this afternoon/evening? Thought about it, but the best action looks to be a little too far west for my liking and there are issues with the setup besides marginal moisture that decrease my confidence in more than transient supercellular mode. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Mildly interested in what happens later this evening locally. Can actually see some CAMs showing an enhanced area of gusts asssociated with a line near the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 SPC went up to 10% on the 20Z outlook for parts of SW/SC IA. Tornado watch out. As usual, going to make me bite my nails on choosing not to go, but I stand my my assertion that the window for quality tornadic supercells, if any, will be quite narrow. They also added a 70% contour to the general thunder outlook, which Madison is on the eastern extent of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 As I suspected, looks like a mess already with tons of left splits and storms crashing into each other. Even so, there's been a tornado reported near Emerson, IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Tail-end Charlie getting it done near Corning, approaching Prescott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 There has also now been a confirmed tor near Corning in sw IA. That makes two confirmed. Was not really expecting tors out of this set up but will have to watch. Increasing tor threat over south central IA per recent meso discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Corning/Prescott storm looks like it may became to become dominant enough to produce a more significant tornado, at least for a little while. It's on track for the southern part of the Des Moines area but not sure if it'll stay in a tornadic mode that long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Some low 60 dews showing up in sw and south central IA. If accurate that surprised me. Winterset now under threat with confirmed tor heading their way. Watch those covered bridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 IAC001-121-052300- /O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220305T2300Z/ MADISON IA-ADAIR IA- 421 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CST FOR MADISON AND SOUTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTIES... AT 421 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF GREEN VALLEY LAKE, OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF CRESTON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND TWO INCH HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WINTERSET, EAST PERU, MACKSBURG AND WINTERSET-MADISON COUNTY AIRPORT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 5, 2022 Author Share Posted March 5, 2022 Large tornado near Winterset recently.Was wondering if something interesting was ever going to happen.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Atmosphere making me eat my words today. Edit @Chicago Stormbeat me to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 439 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022 IAC049-121-153-181-052315- /O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220305T2315Z/ POLK IA-MADISON IA-DALLAS IA-WARREN IA- 439 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CST FOR SOUTHWESTERN POLK...NORTHEASTERN MADISON...SOUTHEASTERN DALLAS AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES... AT 439 PM CST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER WINTERSET, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES, BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DES MOINES, WEST DES MOINES, INDIANOLA, NORWALK, PLEASANT HILL, WINTERSET, WINDSOR HEIGHTS, CARLISLE, SAYLORVILLE, SOUTHRIDGE MALL, IOWA STATE FAIRGROUNDS, PRINCIPAL PARK, DES MOINES INT'L AIRPORT, DRAKE STADIUM AND KNAPP CENTER, IOWA EVENTS CE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Fine time for GR Level 3 to stop updating the radar data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Southern metro Des Moines looks under the gun if the large tor is still on the ground. Will a tornado emergency be declared? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 451 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022 IAC049-121-153-181-052315- /O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220305T2315Z/ POLK IA-MADISON IA-DALLAS IA-WARREN IA- 451 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CST FOR SOUTHWESTERN POLK...NORTHEASTERN MADISON...SOUTHEASTERN DALLAS AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES... AT 451 PM CST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF AVENUE OF THE SAINTS EVENT CENTER, OR 8 MILES EAST OF WINTERSET, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED NEAR THE WINTERSET AREA AND JUST SOUTH. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES, BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DES MOINES, WEST DES MOINES, INDIANOLA, NORWALK, PLEASANT HILL, WINDSOR HEIGHTS, CARLISLE, SAYLORVILLE, SOUTHRIDGE MALL, IOWA STATE FAIRGROUNDS, PRINCIPAL PARK, DES MOINES INT'L AIRPORT, DRAKE STADIUM AND KNAPP CENTER, IOWA EVENTS CENTER, HARTFORD, MARTENSDALE, CUMMING, PATTERSON, BEVINGTON AND SPRING HILL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 5, 2022 Author Share Posted March 5, 2022 It’s still OTG currently.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Brother in Des Moines just got one of those automated “take shelter” messages on his phone. Edit: Sirens going off now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 5, 2022 Author Share Posted March 5, 2022 KDSM 052259Z 12008KT 10SM +FC TS BKN018CB BKN100 OVC250 16/14 A2947 RMK TORNADO B58 AO2 LTG DSNT SW-N PRESFR TORNADO B57 10 SW MOV NE FRQ LTGICCG SW-NW TS SW-NW MOV NE T01610139. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 505 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA... WESTERN JASPER COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA... NORTH CENTRAL WARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA... * UNTIL 545 PM CST. * AT 505 PM CST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER NORWALK, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES, BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... DES MOINES INT'L AIRPORT AROUND 510 PM CST. SOUTHRIDGE MALL, PRINCIPAL PARK AND IOWA EVENTS CENTER AROUND 515 PM CST. DES MOINES, PLEASANT HILL, CARLISLE AND IOWA STATE FAIRGROUNDS AROUND 520 PM CST. PRAIRIE MEADOWS AND ADVENTURELAND AMUSEMENT PARK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 5, 2022 Author Share Posted March 5, 2022 TOG in souther DSM metro still.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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