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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2022 OBS Thread


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23 minutes ago, RedSky said:

GFS looks to have way way overestimated cold air the last 10 days of March, should have known it was the old bias. We still get a cold shot on the ECM but looks limited and late in the period. 

 

I hope it's real late in the period, our white magnolia started to flower today. Way early!

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4 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

I hope it's real late in the period, our white magnolia started to flower today. Way early!

There is one (I think it is a star magnolia) that had budded up and is started to bloom not far from my house...  Definitely early!  There are also some cherries around the area that are blooming (although those seem to have sporadic blooms on and off all year including winter if there is a long enough warm spell).

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1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

There is one (I think it is a star magnolia) that had budded up and is started to bloom not far from my house...  Definitely early!  There are also some cherries around the area that are blooming (although those seem to have sporadic blooms on and off all year including winter if there is a long enough warm spell).

Seems like normally a tall order to avoid a freeze for the last 2 weeks of March, but next week looks okay at least.

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7 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

I'm looking at it now, thru a thin haze of clouds. Looks good. Is this an onion moon?

Worm moon and I know the robins have been having a feast! :lol:

Am currently overcast and 56 with dp 53. Will see if it gets unstable today if the sun manages to appear before the cold front and possible convection later this afternoon.

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I saw some data posted by Adam Joseph from 6 ABC that highlighted the "warming" springs since 1970 at Philadelphia International Airport. I of course could not resist the chance to see what a longer period of raw un-adjusted records back to the 1890's for the 3 longest running Chester County sites might show?
Of interest the average temperature changes from the prior decade showed (Coatesville with 6 warmer and 6 colder decades / West Chester 7 colder vs. 5 warmer decades / Phoenixville 6 warmer and 6 colder decades). Overall 2 of the 3 sites show no warming based on trend lines. Of course there can be no doubt that we have been in a warmer cycle since 1970....but failure to show what happened during the prior 7 decades before 1970 may not be painting the most accurate picture. Is climate change real? of course our climate is and will be always changing! But is it simply the normal ebbs and flows of warming vs. cooling cycles? We should never just look at trends since 1970 to make such a call IMHO. image.thumb.png.41d1024e25d93a907e6960a5b8c67f6a.png
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