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March Discobs 2022


George BM
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I remember one March/April from several years ago where there were cold core convective showers around. We were in the car on 95 and car thermometer was 48/49 when we got hit by one. Giant huge snowflakes and temp dropped to like 36 in moments. 

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57 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

You beat me to it.  I remember a fun Mar/Apr event a few years back that was a convective graupel shower.  Would not be surprised if someone gets that on Saturday.

edit - 3/22/2029

Predicting 7 years in advance. Impressive 

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5 hours ago, George BM said:

With cold temperature profiles and steep surface to 600mb lapse rates some of the most intense showers on Saturday could contain some graupel despite surface temps reaching 50+F. A rogue lightning discharge or two may even occur should any convection get deep enough.

             Very clear convective threat with graupel and lightning Saturday.    That is an intense upper system coming through at the right time of day - lapse rates are going to be terrific, and freezing levels will be low.

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4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I remember one March/April from several years ago where there were cold core convective showers around. We were in the car on 95 and car thermometer was 48/49 when we got hit by one. Giant huge snowflakes and temp dropped to like 36 in moments. 

That reminds me of this from March 2003…

 

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43 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Down to 37/33 here with light rain.  3-5” WWA through Saturday evening with a few more inches Saturday night. Probably looking at 6-8” total. 
 

@RIC_WX

eta: got some wet snow flakes mixing in. 

It’s not the spring weather you want but still should be a great weekend. Hope you get to enjoy a hot toddy and snow falling just one more time.

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47 here with a light sprinkle passing through.

Disco from Mount Holly for this afternoon-

Ahead of the reinforcing cold front passage later on today, scattered showers are expected to develop across the area. The environment will be a bit moisture starved to support any appreciable or particularly widespread convection with PWats only around 0.3-0.4 inches. Nevertheless, guidance remains consistent in showing light scattered QPF, including the CAMs. The HRRR remains the most aggressive CAM with this activity. The shortwave and upper divergence will undoubtedly provide plenty of support for scattered convection, and the cold mid-levels arriving ahead of the surface front will provide very steep lapse rates (7-8C/km) resulting in a couple hundred J/kg of MLCAPE. However, the convection will be battling dry air (owing to lack of any return flow and broad scale downsloping in the westerly surface flow) and I suspect this will hamper the convection`s ability to get very organized or widespread. Given low level lapse rates exceeding 9C/km and cold air aloft (700 mb temps around -15C), any convection that materializes will be capable of producing small hail/graupel, isolated lightning/thunder, and wind gusts perhaps into the 30-40 mph range. Thus, I have maintained a mention of this for the entire forecast area with this update.

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