nj2va Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 I wonder if this upcoming “cold blast” will consist of two days in the 40s in DC followed by seasonal spring temps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 2 hours ago, Ji said: Ggem ftw That’s the #2 ranked model right there!! Lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 14 minutes ago, nj2va said: I wonder if this upcoming “cold blast” will consist of two days in the 40s in DC followed by seasonal spring temps. and one day with a low of 34 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: As a hillbilly I can tell you that is spot on. If that attitude is detected there or here for that matter, you’ll immediately become an outcast and will not be liked or tolerated. No one should demean anyone over cultural differences. Humans need to get over our ingrained tribalism. I also wish EVERY culture, especually my own, could be more introspective about both the positives and negatives. Every culture has things worth defending but also things that are inexcusable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 43 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: and one day with a low of 34 I’m not surprised given the NAO in our struggles to max out snow potential this year. But what’s more concerning imo is the cold was kinda weak sauce for the most part too. We discussed this before the pac pattern set in. It was perfect for arctic shots yet we really only ever got typical cold. It seems really difficult to get a true arctic cold shot here lately even when the pattern is aligned right for it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 WB 12Z GFS is weak and south on midweek storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Yeah but isn't the concern a bit premature given that this was the first winter in like 6 years with a favorable PAC? And aren't the real single-digit low cold shots only when the TPV gets displaced a certain way? In general, I do hope it's just too early to draw any conclusions. I mean...7 years ain't exactly a long time in the larger scale of things...is it? I mean...do we have other periods the last 4-5 decades to compare to? I'd like to see some temperature maps and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m not surprised given the NAO in our struggles to max out snow potential this year. But what’s more concerning imo is the cold was kinda weak sauce for the most part too. We discussed this before the pac pattern set in. It was perfect for arctic shots yet we really only ever got typical cold. It seems really difficult to get a true arctic cold shot here lately even when the pattern is aligned right for it. It's all relative but we had some decent cold this winter, mostly in January. Last winter I never recorded a temp below 20, even during Feb with snow/sleet otg and clear skies at night. I had at least 2 single digit lows this winter following the 2 bigger snow events- a low of 7 and 3. Also managed to keep snow otg for longer stretches. Part of the reason we didn't get any super cold air is the progressive nature of the pattern, which you touched on. The legit cold we did get was a 2-3 day shot then quickly modifying as the trough departed, then rinse and repeat. The longwave pattern never stayed aligned long enough to get cold air in place, and then reinforcing shots of cold. We typically need help up top for that. Even though the ens means sometimes suggested it, we never had anything close to a 2014 type delivery of true arctic air, and definitely not with any persistence. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: It's all relative but we had some decent cold this winter, mostly in January. Last winter I never recorded a temp below 20, even during Feb with snow/sleet otg and clear skies at night. I had at least 2 single digit lows this winter following the 2 bigger snow events- a low of 7 and 3. Also managed to keep snow otg for longer stretches. Part of the reason we didn't get any super cold air is the progressive nature of the pattern, which you touched on. The legit cold we did get was a 2-3 day shot then quickly modifying as the trough departed, then rinse and repeat. The longwave pattern never stayed aligned long enough to get cold air in place, and then reinforcing shots of cold. We typically need help up top for that. Even though the ens means sometimes suggested it, we never had anything close to a 2014 type delivery of true arctic air, and definitely not with any persistence. This is a matter of degrees type discussion. I agree with help up top AND the pac we had it would have been better. I don’t doubt it’s still possible to get cold. But we used to get arctic shots from an epo pattern without Atlantic help. Snow was harder to come by in those. But some of our coldest shots were in pac driven years without a lot of seasonal snow to snow for it. It just seems we need more and more of the dominoes to fall in our favor now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Washington Post perspective for January The average temperature of 34.6 degrees was 2.9 degrees below the most-recent 30-year normal. While chilly in our current climate, it ranked as just the 66th-coldest since 1872 (tied with 1962) and would have been a pretty typical January a century ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Hug the WB 12Z Canadian at 12Z for midweek 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I’m not surprised given the NAO in our struggles to max out snow potential this year. But what’s more concerning imo is the cold was kinda weak sauce for the most part too. We discussed this before the pac pattern set in. It was perfect for arctic shots yet we really only ever got typical cold. It seems really difficult to get a true arctic cold shot here lately even when the pattern is aligned right for it. Was far better then the last 2 winters though when we couldn’t even get into the 10s. But still nothing really remarkable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 27 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Hug the WB 12Z Canadian at 12Z for midweek Oh yeah. Daytime, rate-dependent, March snowfall with temps 34-36. Lock that up! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS is weak and south on midweek storm. The GFS is lost like it usually is at this range IMO regardless if it's showing rain or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 WB 12Z GEPS 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 WB 12Z EPS for midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 I keep showing Wed. Because a bird in the hand as small as it is, is worth two in the bush especially when the bush is on fire…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 41 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS for midweek. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 WB 12Z EPS for midweek.Best chance since mid January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Looking over the latest ensemble runs for the Friday-Saturday deal.. the GEFS took a major step towards the Euro/EPS and CMC ens in emphasizing a primary low tracking into the OV and NW of our region. Something to watch(and maybe the best chance for frozen with this event the way things look right now) is a developing coastal low later Saturday as the colder air comes in. Hard to tell on the ensembles if this is due to trailing energy on the front, or a low developing offshore of the coast in response lowering h5 heights as the main trough approaches. Probably the latter. The ops are pretty messy looking with the vorticity at h5, and it will change, so not worth further analysis at this time, at least from me lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 18Z GFS wants no part of the Canadian snowy scenario for midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 18Z GFS wants no part of the Canadian snowy scenario for midweek. Meh…November will be here before you know it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 23 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 18Z GFS wants no part of the Canadian snowy scenario for midweek. And also has another snow storm within days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Not to mention the GFS drops a beast of a snow storm at the end of its run. 2 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 As I discussed in my previous post, this may be the period for the highest probability for frozen in our area from mid week through next weekend. This is clearly the most favorable window on the 18z GEFS. As for the midweek 'threat', it is still there but imo it is marginal at best, and the most likely outcome will be some showers for the coastal plain and if the wave tracks far enough north, maybe some wet snow or rain/ snow mix for NW areas. Doesn't look like anything too significant to me at this point, but I could be wrong. Sorry CMC huggers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said: Not to mention the GFS drops a beast of a snow storm at the end of its run. On 21 March. Makes me chuckle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: On 21 March. Makes me chuckle Atmospheric memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 2018 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 WB 18Z EURO at hour 90 looks more like the Canadian than GFS for midweek. Marginal temps but only storm to watch the next 6 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 Hopefully the midweek system hangs around on guidance and we can do a zoom early this week. Sorry I haven’t been around much lately. I’ve been dealing with some stuff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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