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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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10 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

 It is a cold climate variety that is grown all the way up in Wisconsin.  The constant false start to spring and then return to deep winter cold is the culprit.  

Yeah there’s lots of varieties. I suspect many have the Virginia species and perhaps some even the southern species. 

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2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I was in front royal for both.  37" in 96 and 21" total from both parts of 03 (4" Friday night, 17" Saturday evening thru Sunday afternoon).

 

You see that little tiny ass bubble of sub 20 inch snow from 96 out here close to OKV? Yeah. That is my house.

http://s7d2.scene7.com/is/image/TWCNews/Blizzard96Snowfall

Now compare the 03 storm here. I had 8-10 inches more in 03

Major Winter Storms

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For next week, there are some differences between the EPS and GEFS wrt any colder air initially moving into the region- mostly associated with the timing and exact location of the pieces of energy being shed off the TPV and rotating down. The GEFS suggests a wave mid week with the boundary close to us, thus some potential for a little frozen. EPS has that wave but a little later and a bit warmer. On the heels of that the main trough approaches and there is the potential for a bigger storm heading into next weekend. For now it looks like there will be an initial LP tracking into the OV with a coastal low developing. Way too soon to discuss details, but this is the look on the latest GEFS-

 

1647032400-ZsAEflopFiE.png1647032400-etnD1xxYtao.png

 

 

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For next week, there are some differences between the EPS and GEFS wrt any colder air initially moving into the region- mostly associated with the timing and exact location of the pieces of energy being shed off the TPV and rotating down. The GEFS suggests a wave mid week with the boundary close to us, thus some potential for a little frozen. EPS has that wave but a little later and a bit warmer. On the heels of that the main trough approaches and there is the potential for a bigger storm heading into next weekend. For now it looks like there will be an initial LP tracking into the OV with a coastal low developing. Way too soon to discuss details, but this is the look on the latest GEFS-
 
1647032400-ZsAEflopFiE.png1647032400-etnD1xxYtao.png
 
 
Yea....no. maybe d10
6cf58514fb62d3e3a1408589b7a0cf78.jpg
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39 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This one will happen. I’ll be in the air omw home from a quick work. At least I’ll land in snow! 

 

39 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

That’s the one I’m waiting for.  

You should probably start thread. :lol:

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

That's an improvement over 0z :popcorn:

Yup…will see if we can get a storm to trend our way over the next week.  The week of the 13th has potential but very chaotic with individual ensembles keying in on different waves.  Jury out on that week so I am focusing on the day 6 wave for now.

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This is the time of season where you can easily tell where posters live. I am of the same mindset as @losetoa6  calm, cool and collected, knowing more snows likely coming by the end of the month. Perhaps multiple. Ji? Well… you know he’s from wherever warmchaserchuck’s from in his mind - which is prob. eastern loudon county. 
 

Feeling decent about our chances of seeing a paste bomb in the 3/10-3/14 timeframe - especially for the north of 70 crew up, into psuland and clskinsfanland… which is the time period when we appear to have the best combination of having cold air around and having an active jet stream. Love these extreme boundary patterns where you have 10s and 20s in the north and 80s and 90s in the south. It is currently 1 degree in Caribou ME and in the 80s in the south. This is how we get moisture-laden storms that ring out into cold air domes.
 

March sucks for snow climo wise, but boy, when it works out, it often works out well. As big chill stated on the previous page, these setups, like all others, obviously don’t often pan out —  especially with it being  March in the mid Atlantic —  but when they do,  you can see a situation unfold where a slow moving 1005mb low off the coast can  dump a foot of goop on us. You don’t need all of the synoptic magic we saw back in January when the coast got slammed with that blizzard. The temp gradient and propensity for more intense, slower moving storms does a lot of the work for us. Climo becomes even more important as we head closer to official spring, as the type of pattern were entering is conducive of the types of snowstorms that can dump 6-12” up north and nothing but white rain near the UHI.

I know some of you out there made moves further north toward mappyland USA and the snow capital of central Maryland Carroll county this winter… and while this winter as a whole has been subpar… there’s a decent chance you will soon find out why your move was a good one with multiple marginal events ahead of us  

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16 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Screw the cold coming.  I'm more interested in what's after that - with this pattern below, I'd expect more seasonal to slightly above temps (given how we overperform on temps anyways).

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

It’s forecasted to be 78-80 in dc on Monday depending on the model lol 

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The general setup for late next week would certainly favor inland areas at elevation for potential frozen. Ji might be more interested if he wasn't stuck in eastern Loudoun county.

I was about to comment that by the time this upcoming warm shot is done, everyone except elevation and/or much farther west need something relatively anomalous to see appreciable snow. And by that time, most folks will just want mild weather to stay for good.

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