Weather Will Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 WB 6Z EURO. Note temps now fall below freezing at noon rather than 1 in NW suburbs; back at 12Z… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 Still going with 6-8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Still going with 6-8 Possible in the higher elevations and MD/PA border north east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Still going with 6-8 A lock at your place in Canaan. With winds of 40 mph and crashing temps. Would be a shame to stay in Winchester and be disappointed again. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 WB 9Z NMB: note below freezing 10 am NW burbs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 12 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 9Z NMB: note below freezing 10 am NW burbs What model is this lol. No snow for western PA where all other models crush that area. Is this Model ran out of Loudon County? Leesburg? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: What model is this lol. No snow for western PA where all other models crush that area. Is this Model ran out of Loudon County? Leesburg? It’s the DMV model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, Chris78 said: What model is this lol. No snow for western PA where all other models crush that area. Is this Model ran out of Loudon County? Leesburg? National Model Blend SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 24 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 9Z NMB: note below freezing 10 am NW burbs Finally a snow map that makes sense, fits climo favored areas, and will likely be the FINAL solution...hats off to you sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: It doesn’t mean there won’t be cold air outbreaks again, just that they are rarer and less potent then they would have been 20-50-100 years ago. Take any daily temp anomaly threshold you want: +/-5F, 10F, 20F whatever. Look back over the last many years and compare how often you get that level warm anomaly vs cold anomaly. Warm always wins. You can look at this winter as an example. I’d have to double check, but I don’t think there were any -20F or greater daily departures at BWI in DJF. But there was like ~8 days with +20F. And yes yes, UHI exists, but UHI doesn’t take a “normal” day in rural/suburbs to +10 or +20 at the airport. It cuts both ways around here imho too. Moisture transport benefits greatly from just modest rises in base temps. That + strong baroclonicty with warm ocean/cold continent is most likely the primary driver behind the series of outsized east coast storms since 2009. That will likely continue for years. But being right in between cold/warm climo regions, we're also going to continue to suffer fails that wouldn't fail before. We had a lot of boring mild winter wx in the 80s. Especially the first half before the 87 storms. Reminds me very much of the last couple winters here. We really did struggle to get good snow between 1980-87. It was warm A LOT too. Maybe not the new normal warm but just boring and crappy. If you lived here between the blizzard of 79 and 87 back to backers you would have absolutely hated this hobby. I'm sure of that. There are cycles in cycles in cycles with longwave patterns. I'll reserve my personal fear and concerns for another 5 years or so. Back in the 50s there was a stretch of ungodly warm winters iirc. Maybe we're in that cycle and it's being exasperated by a warming planet. Beats me. I'm kinda old so when it stops snowing entirely around here IWGAF cuz I'm doing dead things by then 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Solution Man said: It’s the DMV model The ONLY model that matters! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 hours ago, mappy said: cold chasing precip? okay. ALWAYS works out. We'll be fine. I'.m 100% sure I will be getting 2 to 4 inches of snow in mid march in the afternoon. Why are you so negative?!!? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 58 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Still going with 6-8 We'll take that, would be nice to get those 6 to 8 flakes at night tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 10 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: But how do you know the PAC firehose wasn't the reason for that? Was there not a general lack of cold air last season? This season we had cold air but no blocking...we have this last year and it's different. And as far as not having an article outbreak, to me, Jan 2017 wasn't that long ago, lol I just wonder if it's premature to sound the alarm. This is exactly what I was talking about. Everytime I bring up a marginal event that went the wrong way someone brings up the reasons it wasn’t colder because every factor wasn’t perfect. We’ve snowed in a -NAO but flawed pac pattern before. The airmass wasn’t putrid in early Feb. There had been an injection of some attic air from brief cross polar flow in late January. It wasn’t a fresh arctic airmass by then but that setup has worked plenty of times. It worked in Feb 2010!!! Im not sure exactly what you’re point is. Are you denying it’s several degrees warmer now than it was? Are you denying the fact that being warmer means some storms that would have worked and been a 32/33 degree snow before is rain now? That seems a pretty simple and obvious conclusion. Our falling snow means bear it out. What’s more troubling is our median is dropping like a rock. The mean is being propped up some by an uptick (until recently) of big storms and big years. But the % of single digit snow years is way higher now than any past periods in records. Everytine I bring up a synoptic event that I feel should have been snow based on historical norms someone basically says “but it didn’t snow because it was too warm for this or that reason”. Well ya! My point is but if it’s 3 degrees warmer now and it was a 36 degree rain event…well do the math! Maybe instead of it being slightly too warm because of whatever imperfections you being up 50 years ago it was just cold enough to overcome it. The vast majority of past snow events in Baltimore were flawed and we had to overcome something not right about the pattern. We won’t snow often if we need a perfect setup. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 I hate these setups. Rain changing to snow soon after onset of precip is fun. Anafrontal setups is watching rain (sometimes heavy) streaming down the street along with our tears of what could have been… only to get pity snow after the climax of precipitation. Yawn. Win lose or draw, thank you all for another great winter of online analysis, comment and banter. Anticipation awaits for severe season and RadarScope watching. And then tropical season. And then we shall meet again and I hope next winter doesn’t suck as much as this one. At least you DC folks got the early Jan storm. Up here in Mappy territory the last good one was 2016. Another miss this year. Too long. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m in your camp. I think it’s very premature to sound alarms. Not trying to sound an alarm. I don’t even think what I’m saying is some profound revelation. I’m not saying we can’t get snowstorms. Not saying we can’t get a big year. Just saying we are getting less. We’re losing some snow on the margins. Is that controversial? If we know it’s 2-4 degrees warmer isn’t that just “duh”? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Buy the event or not, when the EPS is slowly trending better run after run, that's enough to suggest something might be happening, imo. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 24 minutes ago, Weather Will said: SREF Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 I’m riding this lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 If the 12Z runs hold course, I would like to start a thread…. Any objections? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m riding this lol Will didn't even share the weeniest map. For shame. Enjoy this one. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 You can’t make this up 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: If the 12Z runs hold course, I would like to start a thread…. Any objections? Wait until Sunday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Will didn't even share the weeniest map. For shame. Enjoy this one. I actually have taken to heart the criticism on the snow maps. So I have refined my snow map criteria to within 5 days, and whether temps actually support it. With this storm I am just trying to post the depth maps since temps don’t support snow sticking without heavy rates before mid to late morning and the snow will be falling on wet, soggy ground. If I get 2 inches and any coverage on the roads I will score it a win in SW Frederick County. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 I like it when my forecast reads snow, possibly heavy at times 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, Weather Will said: If the 12Z runs hold course, I would like to start a thread…. Any objections? Just start it whenever dude. we're 48 hours away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I like it when my forecast reads snow, possibly heavy at times Yep. Mine says that too lol. Nws does seem on board with the a period of accumulating snow.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Lol, super long range HRRR has the N/W crew flipping to snow at 12z 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 New thread is there… fingers crossed that everyone has a wintry Saturday!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Going to be in Carlisle PA for this event due to a swim meet, excited that a storm will be impacting the area around then and I will be further north to maximize the potential. Unfortunately it is in a valley so I don't got that sweet elevation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now