March Medium/Long Range Discussion

[vastateofmind]

4 hours ago, Scraff said:

I’ll take my mulch topper and like it. Hell of a winter. 

For most recent winters, I've taken your tack:

1. Digital, or real, snow forecasted.
2. Fails to materialize, in almost all real-world cases here in the NoVA 'burbs to S/E of I-95.
3. When the (insert frozen precip) fails to materialize here, I look in my fridge for one of my most hi-test IPAs (like @Scraff typically keeps HIS fridge stocked with), pop that sucker open, and throw it back while reading the reports of N/W frozen precip.
4. SCORE.
 

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

I am totally content with this winter honestly. January was about as good as it can get here, so even though December was a snowless torch( the usual) and February was nearly snowless, I exceeded the the long term annual mean, and it all fell during the best month climatologically for combo of cold and snow and low sun angle. The pattern was generally cold and the snow stayed around awhile too.

So, our experience in this part of the world was much like yours this season. I said in the days immediately following 1/3/2022 -- when we received just shy of a foot of snow -- that I wouldn't bitch about the rest of this winter, and I think I've been true to that. That 1/3 snow lasted a good while here, too, and it was generally cold well into mid-late February, too. I'm ready to move onto spring and severe season....but honestly, I can't personally complain about a bad 2021-22 winter at all here.

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

HH GFS has my yard as the east of the mountains jackpot!

Sorry @Weather WillI couldn't resist.

Really, @CAPE, after this winter....I can totally believe that darker gray blob could possibly bring you up to an inch.   

[Scraff]

4 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

For most recent winters, I've taken your tack:

1. Digital, or real, snow forecasted.
2. Fails to materialize, in almost all real-world cases here in the NoVA 'burbs to S/E of I-95.
3. When the (insert frozen precip) fails to materialize here, I look in my fridge for one of my most hi-test IPAs (like @Scraff typically keeps HIS fridge stocked with), pop that sucker open, and throw it back while reading the reports of N/W frozen precip.
4. SCORE.
 

So, our experience in this part of the world was much like yours this season. I said in the days immediately following 1/3/2022 -- when we received just shy of a foot of snow -- that I wouldn't bitch about the rest of this winter, and I think I've been true to that. That 1/3 snow lasted a good while here, too, and it was generally cold well into mid-late February, too. I'm ready to move onto spring....but honestly, I can't personally complain about a bad 2021-22 winter at all here.

Really, @CAPE, after this winter....I can totally believe that darker gray blob could possibly bring you up to an inch.   

My appropriate DIPA for this evening.  
 

So maybe Moodoki El Niño next year? 
 

 

 

 

 

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, Scraff said:

My appropriate DIPA for this evening.  
 

So maybe Moodoki El Niño next year? 
 

 

 

 

 

Nice!

I am sipping on a 120. Shocker I know lol. But as long as I can get em, I will. They only brew it once or twice a year. Only one place locally that even has them, and they sell them as singles for 9 bucks.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO….model battle!!!

[WinterWxLuvr]

WPC and NWS are pretty bullish on snow out here Saturday. Surprisingly so

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z…. Saturday storm will decide which global model gets the crown going into next season….

[Weather Will]

A closer look at the EURO shows temps going below freezing about 1 pm Saturday in NW suburbs which is actually about the same time as the GFS but on the EURO it is still snowing.  Note that the EURO snow depth map is actually much less impressive.

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

A closer look at the EURO shows temps going below freezing about 1 pm Saturday in NW suburbs which is actually about the same time as the GFS but on the EURO it is still snowing.  Note that the EURO snow depth map is actually much less impressive.

I always ask myself wwjid. ( what would JI do) 

Go with the model that shows the least amount of snow and you can't go wrong.

[CAPE]

lol at weather models getting crowns. Pretty insane.

 

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z…. Saturday storm will decide which global model gets the crown going into next season….

You realize how minor the differences are here synoptically? You really do need to break the addiction to model snow maps before next winter dude. The answers to the ultimate outcome are not gleaned by looking at this crap.

[Weather Will]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You realize how minor the differences are here synoptically? You really do need to break the addiction to model snow maps before next winter dude. The answers to the ultimate outcome are not gleaned by looking at this crap.

I see it…but GFS is more progressive.

[Chris78]

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You realize how minor the differences are here synoptically? You really do need to break the addiction to model snow maps before next winter dude. The answers to the ultimate outcome are not gleaned by looking at this crap.

Snow maps are fine when it's 25 degrees and snow with no mixing concerns.

In marginal events there rarely accurate. 

Take today for example.  The euro kuchie maps from last night had my yard getting 2 to 4 inches. all I got was some mangled flakes for a few hours.  

I've learned over the years when your on the southern edge with snow your probably getting screwed.

I get excited for my yard when I see snow on the models  all the way down 81 into South West VA. That's when I know I'm in good shape and can withstand the eventual north shift in the last 36 hours.

My guess is Saturday ends the same way with the mountains and western PA ,western NY and on up into the NE gets hammered while we get wind and maybe some flurries. 

We all know what set ups work for our yard and cold chasing rain isn't one of them lol.

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Snow maps are fine when it's 25 degrees and snow with no mixing concerns.

In marginal events there rarely accurate. 

Take today for example.  The euro kuchie maps from last night had my yard getting 2 to 4 inches. all I got was some mangled flakes for a few hours.  

I've learned over the years when your on the southern edge with snow your probably getting screwed.

I get excited for my yard when I see snow on the models  all the way down 81 into South West VA. That's when I know I'm in good shape and can withstand the eventual north shift in the last 36 hours.

My guess is Saturday ends the same way with the mountains and western PA ,western NY and on up into the NE gets hammered while we get wind and maybe some flurries. 

We all know what set ups work for our yard and cold chasing rain isn't one of them lol.

I agree with most of what you say here.

The Euro and GFS have both been a bit "noisy" from run to run with the Saturday deal. Frankly the CMC has depicted(most consistently) what I think is the right idea given the set up, which is cold air chasing precip.

[Scraff]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

lol at weather models getting crowns. Pretty insane.

 

Super Bowl / Weather Model Saturday. Final game of the year!  Who will be crowned winter 2021/22 champ!? Euro or GFS?  I’ll bet on the one with less snow right the F**K now. 

 

ETA: Wish the the CRAS had made it to the end….

[Solution Man]

46 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Super Bowl / Weather Model Saturday. Final game of the year!  Who will be crowned winter 2021/22 champ!? Euro or GFS?  I’ll bet on the one with less snow right the F**K now. 

 

ETA: Wish the the CRAS had made it to the end….

We all know how this is going to end 

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

We all know how this is going to end 

Chris78 said it all.  This set up blows.  We need to refresh like Subway.  

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, WesternFringe said:

Washington DC has annual snowfall data going back to 1888.  When I get a chance, I will enter in all the annual totals and run a linear regression to find the line of best fit.  By the slope of that line, we will be able to quantify any change in snowfall totals relative to the totals of the late 1880s, or from any point in time since for that matter.

I can then overlay and/or add other cities and do likewise.  It should be interesting to see how the cities may differ or not and what the slope is when starting with different points in time.

 

We know that snowfall is decreasing in DC and Baltimore. What’s harder to quantify is exactly what impact warming is having on specific events. It’s impossible to calculate because temps don’t act in isolation. Change the global thermal profile and the whole pattern changes and the storm isn’t even there at all anymore. But common sense would reason that it’s hurting us with marginal events most of all. I would bet your stats will show snow is being hurt most along that fringes of where its typically cold enough to snow. Like here!   Get far enough north and averages might even go up as warming causes more precip and it’s still cold enough. 

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

My take on today's event specifically is it was simply a bad setup for our latitude. The lower levels were complete crap with with really no mechanism for colder or drier air to advect in for any significant cooling. Most guidance had just about all locations wet bulbing above freezing. Dynamic cooling gets talked up a lot but it cant work miracles, and in this instance we would have needed some hella rates for a long duration to get it done even in areas with some elevation. Just because a low tracks along/off the coast to our south doesn't mean we snow simply because temps are marginal and "should cool" enough. 

Except that is actually how it used to work up here!  And it still does more than on the coastal plain. I hope people don’t think I’m complaining about MBY. Ya this year sucked but last year I was a regional max for snow!  I have no right to complain. I do fine in the longer run. But there have been more and more of these “marginal” events that break wrong even up here lately.  I’m not saying they all should have worked out. But I log them in my mind and I do think even up here marginal events are bleeding the wrong way some. That super bowl Sunday storm last winter for example. Imo that should have been a 3-6” snow in DC and 6-10 up here.  The track was perfect and the storm was a trailing wave right behind a cold front in early February. There was no excuse for the boundary layer to be torched like that. Yea people point out the surface temps were just too warm but my point is based on the pattern it shouldn’t have been. But it was 38 degree white rain in DC and 5” of 34 degree wet slop up here. 

[Maestrobjwa]

12 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea people point out the surface temps were just too warm but my point is based on the pattern it shouldn’t have been. But it was 38 degree white rain in DC and 5” of 34 degree wet slop up here

But how do you know the PAC firehose wasn't the reason for that? Was there not a general lack of cold air last season? This season we had cold air but no blocking...we have this last year and it's different. And as far as not having an arctic outbreak, to me, Jan 2017 wasn't that long ago, lol I just wonder if it's premature to sound the alarm.

[Chris78]

The icon sucks

But looks more euroesk for Saturday 

Nice change from previous runs

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, Chris78 said:

The euro kuchie maps from last night had my yard getting 2 to 4 inches. all I got was some mangled flakes for a few hours.

See if you can guess why I had a good laugh at the first sentence...lol

[nj2va]

LWX added heavy snow into the mountain zone forecasts.  First call by them.

[yoda]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
336 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2022

MDZ001-VAZ503-WVZ501-505-101645-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0006.220312T0800Z-220313T0600Z/
Garrett-Western Highland-Western Grant-Western Pendleton-
336 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations of
  6 to 10 inches possible. Northwest winds around 40 to 55 mph are
  most likely, with the strongest winds Saturday afternoon and
  evenining.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett County. In Virginia, Western
  Highland County. In West Virginia, Western Grant and Western
  Pendleton Counties.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through late Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Gusty winds could
  bring down tree branches. The cold wind chills as low as 15
  below zero could result in hypothermia if precautions are not
  taken.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The combination of snow and blowing snow
  may reduce visibility to around a quarter mile or less at times,
  especially Saturday afternoon and evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare for possible blizzard conditions. Continue to monitor the
latest forecasts for updates on this 

[yoda]

Morning AFD from LWX on the threat on Saturday 

The low will rapidly intensify as it passes through the area
Saturday morning along with the strong cold front. A strong
northwest wind will develop behind this system, bringing in much
colder air. Temperatures in the 40s and 50s ahead of the front
will fall rapidly into the 20s and 30s behind the front Saturday
afternoon (teens and single digits along the ridge tops). The
potent upper-level trough will pass through the area behind the
cold front Saturday afternoon/early evening. Given the strong
dynamics with the upper-level trough, this does cause an
anafrontal setup, where a period of precipitation is expected to
occur on the cold side of the boundary. Therefore, rain is
likely to end as a period of snow for most areas. There is still
some uncertainty as to how much precipitation will be left by
the time the cold air arrives, but it does appear increasingly
likely that there will be accumulating snow in the farther
northern and western suburbs  of Washington/Baltimore toward
the Allegheny Highlands. The farther west you go, the higher the
confidence is and that`s because the cold air will arrive
sooner, and those areas are in a more favorable location given
the synoptics (left exit of upper-level jet and just northwest
of the 850mb lows track). A Winter Storm Watch has been issued
for locations along and west of the Allegheny Front, where
several inches of snow are possible. Additional advisories may
be needed farther east. For Washington/Baltimore, there is still
a chance for accumulating snow, but confidence decreases a bit.
Will continue to monitor closely, because any slight change in
the track of the low or timing of the cold air will have a
significant impact on the potential for wintry precipitation.

Another element to the snow for locations along/west of the
Allegheny Front will be upslope Saturday afternoon and evening.
With very cold air along with the potent upper-level trough,
there is a deep saturated mixing layer with temperatures in the
DGZ layer. This combined with some instability suggests that
heavier burst of snow showers are likely behind the low Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night. Given the strong winds, very cold
air, and potential for heavier bursts of snow, blizzard
conditions are possible along the ridge tops.

Strong winds are expected behind the cold front later Saturday
morning/afternoon through at least Saturday evening. Strong cold
advection coupled with rapidly rising pressure behind the cold
front and a deep mixing layer suggests that 50 to 55 mph are
likely across much of the area during this time. Some higher
gusts around 60 mph cannot be ruled out, especially in the
ridges. Wind headlines will likely be needed during this time.
Dangerously low wind chills around -10 to -20 degrees are
possible along the ridges later Saturday afternoon/Saturday
night. Elsewhere, wind chills near zero are most likely west of
the Blue Ridge Mountains with single digits and teens elsewhere.

[Weather Will]

1pm Sat WB 6Z 3K NAM:  all the models overnight and so far this am moved toward the EURO solution. (Faster transition to wintry precip in NW zones)

[mappy]

cold chasing precip? okay. 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS.   After the weekend wintry shot, temps rebound to above normal and on the dry side.  Gardening weather…

[WinterWxLuvr]

8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But how do you know the PAC firehose wasn't the reason for that? Was there not a general lack of cold air last season? This season we had cold air but no blocking...we have this last year and it's different. And as far as not having an article outbreak, to me, Jan 2017 wasn't that long ago, lol I just wonder if it's premature to sound the alarm.

I’m in your camp. I think it’s very premature to sound alarms.

[H2O]

43 minutes ago, mappy said:

cold chasing precip? okay. 

It only works when precip chases cold

[WxUSAF]

9 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But how do you know the PAC firehose wasn't the reason for that? Was there not a general lack of cold air last season? This season we had cold air but no blocking...we have this last year and it's different. And as far as not having an article outbreak, to me, Jan 2017 wasn't that long ago, lol I just wonder if it's premature to sound the alarm.

It doesn’t mean there won’t be cold air outbreaks again, just that they are rarer and less potent then they would have been 20-50-100 years ago. Take any daily temp anomaly threshold you want: +/-5F, 10F, 20F whatever. Look back over the last many years and compare how often you get that level warm anomaly vs cold anomaly. Warm always wins. You can look at this winter as an example. I’d have to double check, but I don’t think there were any -20F or greater daily departures at BWI in DJF. But there was like ~8 days with +20F. And yes yes, UHI exists, but UHI doesn’t take a “normal” day in rural/suburbs to +10 or +20 at the airport.