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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The recent trends across guidance are in the wrong direction. The wave(s) of interest will form along/ahead of the front, but recent runs of the globals are delaying the progression of the trough a bit, so the low pressure track is further west, thus warmer aloft and at the surface for much of our region while precip is falling as the cold is delayed. The general outcome that had been advertised before the more recent 'trend to better' was almost all of the precip falling ahead of the front in the warm sector. Lets see where we go from here. In general the further NW, the better if you want to see some significant snow.

Great explanos.   Science without emotion.  You deserve daffodils now and snow next winter...

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50 minutes ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said:

Is there any upslope still cranking in the Alleghany's at this hour?

With the energy swinging through and winds out of the NW, I'd be surprised if it wasn't still snowing (even if lightly/mood flakes) throughout the night on Saturday.  I've seen it plenty of times out there play out like that in spite of what the models are showing.

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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Probably should at this point, so we can focus on the next threat in the LR, except there isn't one. :yikes:

Looks a lot like Spring on the ens means.

I was thinking that we wouldn’t really need to start a thread since it seems like this is our last chance. If we could get a  a decent storm with this one, and then Spring would likely be welcome by many in here. 

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6 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

I was thinking that we wouldn’t really need to start a thread since it seems like this is our last chance. If we could get a  a decent storm with this one, and then Spring would likely be welcome by many in here. 

Yeah there really isn't a need to start another thread. The Saturday threat, such that it is, is the only game in town here at this point.

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15 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

I was thinking that we wouldn’t really need to start a thread since it seems like this is our last chance. If we could get a  a decent storm with this one, and then Spring would likely be welcome by many in here. 

You also thought we should start a new long range thread because the page numbers were too high.

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

If you define the seasons more on weather patterns than the calendar, it seems to me that spring starts after this weekends cold shot. Cold air retreats well north next week and no sign of it returning.

it will come back when we don't want it...frost/freeze warnings in April during spring break week

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6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

it will come back when we don't want it...frost/freeze warnings in April during spring break week

Just because there’s no cold pattern on the horizon after Sunday doesn’t mean it won’t hit freezing again! Last freeze even in the cities is usually at least late March? 

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