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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I was expecting this post lol.

LOL!!  Yeah, the only forecast that's easy to make and be 100% correct about!

The 18Z doesn't look overly different if you compare to the 06Z or even 00Z, at least in terms of what it shows for sensible weather.  Obviously 12Z was a "better look."  The trough axis looks kind of different each cycle, which I'm sure plays some role.  As well as how rapidly the cold air comes in.  It's a bit warmer at 18Z Saturday in this run, compared to the 12Z run.

ETA:  The low of interest is also more southwest of here at 12Z, and deeper, for what that is worth at this point.

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9 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

This has a chance to drop a decent thump of snow for the familiar late season folks N & W. Would be a nice way to go out after a hard fought winter for scraps in our region. Can the Euro score a coup on this last event of the winter? 

I have observed that the snowiest model caves to the least snowiest as time gets closer.   

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27 minutes ago, CAPE said:

CMC has been the least snowiest, and HH GFS resembles that depiction at the surface, but not quite as shitty. Any guesses how the next couple runs of the Euro will trend? :rolleyes:

Less snow more dog turd?  That is my final answer 

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The recent trends across guidance are in the wrong direction. The wave(s) of interest will form along/ahead of the front, but recent runs of the globals are delaying the progression of the trough a bit, so the low pressure track is further west, thus warmer aloft and at the surface for much of our region while precip is falling as the cold is delayed. The general outcome that had been advertised before the more recent 'trend to better' was almost all of the precip falling ahead of the front in the warm sector. Lets see where we go from here. In general the further NW, the better if you want to see some significant snow.

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