CAPE Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 Progressive flow continues to rule. Not expecting the GFS to score a coup here given its recent issues at range, but who knows. Sometimes everything does align and time perfectly. We definitely need a HL/NA atmospheric block up in here. Maybe next year, with a Nino. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 23 minutes ago, CAPE said: Maybe next year, with a Nino. Spring predictability barrier, etc, but the latest enso plumes are 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 HH GFS looks just a tad different for next weekend lol. Almost a full cave to the Euro/CMC depiction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 40 minutes ago, CAPE said: Maybe next year, with a Nino. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: A nice warm late Fall, per usual. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 21 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 21st century December climo 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 21st century December climo In the last 15 years, DCA has exceeded 3" and IAD/BWI have exceeded 5" in December exactly once. All three airports average more snow in March than December. It just isn't a core winter month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 The sooner folks start to realize that, the better for our forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Spring predictability barrier, etc, but the latest enso plumes are Man don't even...why trolleth ye? We are NOT getting a third Nina in a row. I ain't even speakin' that into existence, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: 21st century December climo Winter 22-23 cancel already? Damn I don’t have that many left…my kids are making sure of that 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 23-24…that’s our winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 WB 18Z EURO…snow tv watch in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO…snow tv watch in effect. Was just going to post the 18z euro looks better for some some on Wednesday. Definitely juiced up. Around .5 qpf into northern MD. 850s at 0 or below and 2 m temps in the 34 to 36 range all day. Needs to shave a few degrees off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Just now, Ji said: sweet! We're at the cross roads. Which way do you think we go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ji said: sweet! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 14 minutes ago, Chris78 said: We're at the cross roads. Which way do you think we go? the wrong way but i like digital snow more than real snow so im good with just model runs giving us snow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 3 hours ago, CAPE said: HH GFS looks just a tad different for next weekend lol. Almost a full cave to the Euro/CMC depiction. I haven’t seen it. Power outage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 I support the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 The Wed deal looks like classic snow tv. Very marginal low level temps and warm ground with no mechanism to bring colder air in at the surface other than elevation + rates. No one should be paying much attention snow maps as the ratios will probably be something like 5 or 6:1 for places where it manages to accumulate. The positive snow depth change map on the 3km NAM would probably be close to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 8 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: I haven’t seen it. Power outage. Hope it came back quickly. GFS has fully caved, as we knew it would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 51 minutes ago, CAPE said: Hope it came back quickly. GFS has fully caved, as we knew it would. WB 6Z GEFS actually shifted east again. Some members now bring snow to area Saturday. Not quite ready to throw in the towel yet… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Eps now with a few members liking at least a period of snow Sat fwiw Saturday looks like a wild day weather wise regardless. Warm, wind, maybe thunder, then sharp drop in temps. Maybe we can get some snow showers with the front but with the progressive look, any low that might form along the front as the cold comes in would probably end up too far east. That GFS run with the perfect phase and sharp negatively tilted trough would have done it, but it now looks similar to the Euro, although not quite as positively tilted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs 6z am I wrong to say that looks pretty good? can I say that? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 15 minutes ago, BristowWx said: am I wrong to say that looks pretty good? can I say that? 17 members…looks as good as any chance we had this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 am I wrong to say that looks pretty good? can I say that?Is this all rain to a period ending as a bit of snow scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ji said: 57 minutes ago, BristowWx said: am I wrong to say that looks pretty good? can I say that? Is this all rain to a period ending as a bit of snow scenario? Yes...yes it is..still it beats the alternative which was this weekend...hope we can avoid that for a while longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Yes...yes it is..still it beats the alternative which was this weekend...hope we can avoid that for a while longer Even though the weekend storm coming up looks to be west of us, I still like the look at h 5. I may have jinxed myself buy winterizing the toy too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: Even though the weekend storm coming up looks to be west of us, I still like the look at h 5. I may have jinxed myself buy winterizing the toy too early. Nah…I wouldn’t worry brother. I know snow happens in March but I’m still not a believer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 I don’t know…this is for Wednesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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