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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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Progressive flow continues to rule. Not expecting the GFS to score a coup here given its recent issues at range, but who knows. Sometimes everything does align and time perfectly.

We definitely need a HL/NA atmospheric block up in here. Maybe next year, with a Nino. :wub:

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5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO…snow tv watch in effect.

FA42D21C-4D13-4269-A011-B9EE6156D113.png

ABA5E8A5-DB52-4A97-B078-B28CA66690A4.png

Was just going to post the 18z euro looks better for some some on Wednesday.

 

Definitely juiced up. Around .5 qpf into northern MD.

850s at 0 or below and 2 m temps in the 34 to 36 range all day.

Needs to shave a few degrees off.

 

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The Wed deal looks like classic snow tv. Very marginal low level temps and warm ground with no mechanism to bring colder air in at the surface other than elevation + rates. No one should be paying much attention snow maps as the ratios will probably be something like 5 or 6:1 for places where it manages to accumulate. The positive snow depth change map on the 3km NAM would probably be close to reality. 

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps now with a few members liking at least a period of snow Sat fwiw 

Saturday looks like a wild day weather wise regardless. Warm, wind, maybe thunder, then sharp drop in temps. Maybe we can get some snow showers with the front but with the progressive look, any low that might form along the front as the cold comes in would probably end up too far east. That GFS run with the perfect phase and sharp negatively tilted trough would have done it, but it now looks similar to the Euro, although not quite as positively tilted.

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7 minutes ago, Ji said:
57 minutes ago, BristowWx said:
am I wrong to say that looks pretty good?  can I say that?

Is this all rain to a period ending as a bit of snow scenario?

Yes...yes it is..still it beats the alternative which was this weekend...hope we can avoid that for a while longer

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8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yes...yes it is..still it beats the alternative which was this weekend...hope we can avoid that for a while longer

Even though the weekend storm coming up looks to be west of us, I still like the look at h 5. I may have jinxed myself buy winterizing the toy too early.

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1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

Even though the weekend storm coming up looks to be west of us, I still like the look at h 5. I may have jinxed myself buy winterizing the toy too early.

Nah…I wouldn’t worry brother.  I know snow happens in March but I’m still not a believer. 

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