Chris78 Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO at hour 90 looks more like the Canadian than GFS for midweek. Marginal temps but only storm to watch the next 6 days. Certainly does. It'd a bit warm though. With 850s and surface freezing line up in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Nam'd incoming extraping lol Man now you know that'd be slidin' off the coast right below us, lolol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nah...definitely hit DC and burbs at minimum and probably just miss Bmore Fixed, lol This has been a weird "just miss Bmore and skunk n/nw" winter! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 WB 6Z 10K Can keeps Wed on life support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 GFS/GEFS is back to emphasizing low pressure along the coast, in contrast to the Euro/CMC, which have a low tracking to our NW late week. I mentioned the best chance for frozen looked like it might be Saturday with some sort of coastal development, and the 6z GFS does exactly that. GEFS still hinting at it. CMC and EPS ens indicate some sort of trailing low but looks very progressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 WB 6Z GFS Wave 2 for Saturday….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 The Euro has temps into the 60s next Saturday, with heavy rain showers ahead of the front, then the cold comes in later in the day, while the GFS has temps falling into the 30s with a developing coastal low and rain changing to an accumulating snow. Some modest support on the GEFS. Kinda hard to buy into the GFS idea given how progressive the longwave pattern looks, and ofc its recent track history with being overly aggressive with the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 The midweek deal looks a little underwhelming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 49 minutes ago, CAPE said: The midweek deal looks a little underwhelming. Unfortunately agreed, not enough cold air to put us in the game for midweek. Chilly rain on tap according to WB 6Z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Unfortunately agreed, not enough cold air to put us in the game for midweek. Chilly rain on tap according to WB 6Z EURO It's uncertain how much qpf this will even generate. Looks like a fairly weak wave, and the GFS keeps the precip mostly south. We know the deal this time of year- weak lift/light precip and marginal temps is a non starter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 We got Nam'd but no one cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 I’m interested in the first day of spring fling ding-a-ling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 So we just gonna be quiet about the GFS? Midweek shit looks like shit (I hope it fails...ill be in the air on the way back here). Saturday is where it's at! Gooo CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: 12z Gfs Sat at h5 looks decently impressive at 132 Build on the good look it had at 6z. ICON went the same direction at h5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: So we just gonna be quiet about the GFS? Midweek shit looks like shit (I hope it fails...ill be in the air on the way back here). Saturday is where it's at! Gooo CAPE I’m in for one last ride 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So we just gonna be quiet about the GFS? Midweek shit looks like shit (I hope it fails...ill be in the air on the way back here). Saturday is where it's at! Gooo CAPE Would be nice to see the other globals to move towards the GFS idea. We shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 That looks like a fun Saturday Morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 The GFS is phasing the NS energy with the southern vorticity sooner, and leaving no energy behind, so the trough is sharp and goes neutral then slightly negative, which allows a surface low to form and and track up along the coast. The CMC and Euro don't have that clean interplay and the trough is broader and positively tilted, so any low that forms just gets shunted out. The GEFS is a little in between, but given the character/orientation of the trough and the location of the coastal low(offshore) depicted on the mean, it is leaning more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 15 minutes ago, CAPE said: The GFS is phasing the NS energy with the southern vorticity sooner, and leaving no energy behind, so the trough is sharp and goes neutral then slightly negative, which allows a surface low to form and and track up along the coast. The CMC and Euro don't have that clean interplay and the trough is broader and positively tilted, so any low that forms just gets shunted out. The GEFS is a little in between, but given the character/orientation of the trough and the location of the coastal low(offshore) depicted on the mean, it is leaning more progressive. In other words...the seasonal progressive tendency lingers into March! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 12z Canadian, compared to the 12z GFS at h5.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 Slightly different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Slightly different. A tad lol. GFS gets it done with fine precision- the timing, the dig, the tilt, and it leaves nothing behind. I'm confident that will work out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: A tad lol. GFS gets it done with fine precision- the timing, the dig, the tilt, and it leaves nothing behind. I'm confident that will work out. This winter needed a No Energy Left Behind act... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: This winter needed a No Energy Left Behind act... This comment deserves way more than one like. Nicely done. As it stands right now, I have no interest in the Wednesday event. Precip chasing marginal cold air after multiple days in the 70s? Non starter for me. Even up here in “snowy” Carroll county. Gonna need to head to buffalo for that one if you want to catch a few sloppy inches at best. The storm, if you can even call it that at this point, has continued to trend weaker. The QPF and precip intensity being advertised won’t get it done Saturday? That’s a bit of a different story. My interest is low to medium level for that timeframe. Doesn’t help that the GFS is the only model that is REALLY advertising such a quick advance of cold air (hmm.. where have we heard that before?) ahead of the storm and near perfect timing at h5. With the development of a coastal low and snow almost being entirely dependent on timing, phasing, etc… it’s not very comforting to only have the GFS honking. Good news is we are still a long way out so this is by no means set in stone. It’s hard to imagine us being able to pull this off in mid-March, when we couldn’t do it all winter long, but crazier things have certainly happened. Let’s see the euro and Canadian move toward the GFS in the coming days and then I’m in for the tracking 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 The Euro and CMC(and their ensembles) are sticking with the warm-wet followed by cold-dry outcome for now. Check out the Euro vs the GFS for Sat afternoon. It is snowing moderately on the GFS here with falling temps verbatim, while the rain is pushing east and the cold front is about to move through on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 The Euro and CMC(and their ensembles) are sticking with the warm-wet followed by cold-dry outcome for now. Check out the Euro vs the GFS for Sat afternoon. It is snowing moderately on the GFS here with falling temps verbatim, while the rain is pushing east and the cold front is about to move through on the Euro.The no snow models are complete bs imo.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 34 minutes ago, Ji said: The no snow models are complete bs imo.... Hmm. I wonder which one will be correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Hmm. I wonder which one will be correct. Need to insert the meme of Morgan Freeman in Shawshank where he gets up from the table 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 Snippet from Mount Holly AFD regarding Friday into the weekend.. A robust cold front approaching from the west is expected to pass through eastern Pennsylvania, eastern Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey around Saturday morning. The boundary will likely bring additional showers along with a sharp drop in temperatures. A drying trend and below normal temperatures are anticipated for Saturday night and Sunday. Doesn't seem like they are too concerned with the GFS idea, and to be fair it is not depicting a major snowstorm, but it is markedly colder/more wintry. Either way their thinking is some showers followed by a cold front, much like the Euro/CMC depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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