March Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Solution Man]

13 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

For us it's probably go home. 

I’ve been home for a few weeks

[CAPE]

51 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That has a familiar look to it lol

I'm skeptical of that period being cold enough at this point. Possible, but not sure how cold we can actually get in the Wed-Thursday timeframe. It will definitely feel cold after the prior few days though.

[Ji]

the euro sucks

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That has a familiar look to it lol

The no-blocking typical Nina wants to get in one more laugh...lol I mean that Screencast is the winter right thete! (Only fun part is that even I happened not to be wrong about this winter...albeit my reasoning was a bit too general. But this winter fit the "problem with ninas" to a T!)

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

the euro sucks

12z EPS isn't any better. It tracks everything to our NW then brings the cold in next Sunday, so we get mild and wet followed by a couple days of transient cold and dry. The higher elevations of western VA/WV/W MD would probably see some frozen during the Thursday-Sunday period verbatim.

[CAPE]

Canadian ens looks much more like the EPS than the GEFS. Who wants to ride the colder GFS/GEFS look at range? 

[CAPE]

26 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

The no-blocking typical Nina wants to get in one more laugh...lol I mean that Screencast is the winter right thete! (Only fun part is that even I happened not to be wrong about this winter...albeit my reasoning was a bit too general. But this winter fit the "problem with ninas" to a T!)

Be careful with that association. Ninas can feature blocking, but they almost never have a persistent/prominent stj. That feature is characteristic of a Nino and allows for storm development further south/SW so as to have greater impacts at our latitude, in conjunction with HL blocking(encourages storms to track underneath and keeps cold locked in).

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Be careful with that association. Ninas can feature blocking, but they almost never have a persistent/prominent stj. That feature is characteristic of a Nino and allows for storm development further south/SW so as to have greater impacts at our latitude, in conjunction with HL blocking(encourages storms to track underneath and keeps cold locked in).

Oh yeah I didn't mean to imply that ninas can't have blocking (I know we had that last year...but the dang PAC, lol). I just meant that this was a typical nina AND we had no blocking.

Now about the stj...Now when at the beginning of Jan we saw that it would be unusually present in this nina, I got a bit more enthused. But then we saw that even despite that after the first week we still couldn't time up waves, and the NS interfered with (i.e the storm with a perfect stj wave that got yanked inland) or squashed everything south or southeast! (Of course for your yard that worked out fine, haha) So still that typical Nina NS dominance was an issue. Now I'm wondering if we had had last year's blocking with this year's stj and cold...we would've seen a better result.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh yeah I didn't mean to imply that ninas can't have blocking (I know we had that last year...but the dang PAC, lol). I just meant that this was a typical nina AND had no blocking.

Now about the stj...Now when at the beginning of Jan we saw that it would be unusually present in this nina, I got a bit more enthused. But then we saw that even despite that after the first week we still couldn't time up waves, and the NS interfered with/squashed everything south or southeast! (Of course for your yard that worked out fine, haha) So still that typical Nina NS dominance was an issue. Now I'm wondering if we had had last year's blocking with this year's stj and cold...we would've seen a better result.

Possibly. During the January period when we had some good cold available, the pattern was progressive(minimal to no blocking) so it all came down to timing, and it happened to work out for places further east with later developing coastal lows. I would argue that it was not really a true STJ though- we had a bit of a split flow at times, but the amplified pattern allowed shortwaves entering near AK to dig further southward than is typical, so in some cases those became our 'southern' waves.

[IronTy]

So is winter still over?  Just wired the money over for my Garrett county mountain.  So I'll be ready for next winter. In the meantime it's time to de-winterize the Ducati and get ready for spring.   

[poolz1]

47 minutes ago, IronTy said:

So is winter still over?  Just wired the money over for my Garrett county mountain.  So I'll be ready for next winter. In the meantime it's time to de-winterize the Ducati and get ready for spring.   

Those locals in Garrett Co should welcome you and your Ducati with open arms! lol

[IronTy]

14 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Those locals in Garrett Co should welcome you and your Ducati with open arms! lol

It's all about pretending to be hillbilly.    

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

It's all about pretending to be hillbilly.    

I heard a man say once that where he came from there were two kinds of people … hillbillies and son of a bitches.

I happen to agree.

[RIC_WX]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

It's all about pretending to be hillbilly.    

You can’t fake it up here, but I have gotten surprisingly good at it and made some friends in unlikely places.  People are motivated by different things up here for sure though.  The early lessons were hard.

[AU74]

6 hours ago, Ji said:

the euro sucks

Not as much as the Ruble.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EPS Day 6

[Yeoman]

Hows it looking for Thanksgiving?

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS for Wed.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z ensembles for Day 11 storm Tues 15th. Again, which has been the period of interest for a big one since mid February.

[CAPE]

There are pretty big differences between the GEFS and EPS wrt the trough position at the end of next week, and thus why the EPS has the primary low pressure tracking inland/NW of our region, while the GFS/GEFS emphasizes more of a coastal low tracking along/offshore of the coast. The latter would be the colder solution and be more conducive for frozen. The Canadians side more with the Europeans at this juncture. This may again be another case of the GFS being too aggressive with advancing colder air masses at range.

[CAPE]

For the midweek potential system, we get some colder air working in behind the early week rainstorm as a piece of NS energy slides across to our north. This flattens the ridge and sets the stage for a wave to move along the boundary just to the south. Right now it looks fairly modest, and the northern/western areas of our region would be favored for some wet snow. GFS/GEFS is further south with the wave than the Euro/CMC and their ensemble means.

[baldereagle]

12 hours ago, IronTy said:

It's all about pretending to be hillbilly.    

 Hillbilly from the country here with a couple tips:

This viewpoint won’t endear country folks anywhere, and I’ll just bet they’ll be smart enough  to figure out who’s a pretender. People from all walks of life can recognize those who believe themselves superior to others. “Hillbillies” hate that attitude, and hate phony ostentatious behavior.

People who openly imply that people from the country  are stupid rubes are, in fact, are thoroughly demonstrating their own ignorance.

Country folks know where stupid people come from. It surely isn’t from the country. 
You probably should just sell your property and dwell among smart and classy people such as yourself.

Bless your heart.

 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

7 minutes ago, baldereagle said:

This viewpoint won’t endear country folks anywhere, and I’ll just bet they’ll be smart enough  to figure out who’s a pretender. People from all walks of life can recognize those who believe themselves superior to others. “Hillbillies” hate that attitude, and hate phony ostentatious behavior.

As a hillbilly I can tell you that is spot on. If that attitude is detected there or here for that matter, you’ll immediately become an outcast and will not be liked or tolerated.

[WinterWxLuvr]

9 minutes ago, baldereagle said:

 Hillbilly from the country here with a couple tips:

This viewpoint won’t endear country folks anywhere, and I’ll just bet they’ll be smart enough  to figure out who’s a pretender. People from all walks of life can recognize those who believe themselves superior to others. “Hillbillies” hate that attitude, and hate phony ostentatious behavior.

People who openly imply that people from the country  are stupid rubes are, in fact, are thoroughly demonstrating their own ignorance.

Country folks know where stupid people come from. It surely isn’t from the country. 
You probably should just sell your property and dwell among smart and classy people such as yourself.

Bless your heart.

 

 

This post is great.

[Ji]

For the midweek potential system, we get some colder air working in behind the early week rainstorm as a piece of NS energy slides across to our north. This flattens the ridge and sets the stage for a wave to move along the boundary just to the south. Right now it looks fairly modest, and the northern/western areas of our region would be favored for some wet snow. GFS/GEFS is further south with the wave than the Euro/CMC and their ensemble means.

Ggem ftw

[WinterWxLuvr]

But our big storm follows this one correct?

[IronTy]

49 minutes ago, baldereagle said:

 Hillbilly from the country here with a couple tips:

This viewpoint won’t endear country folks anywhere, and I’ll just bet they’ll be smart enough  to figure out who’s a pretender. People from all walks of life can recognize those who believe themselves superior to others. “Hillbillies” hate that attitude, and hate phony ostentatious behavior.

People who openly imply that people from the country  are stupid rubes are, in fact, are thoroughly demonstrating their own ignorance.

Country folks know where stupid people come from. It surely isn’t from the country. 
You probably should just sell your property and dwell among smart and classy people such as yourself.

Bless your heart.

 

 

I think you're taking this a wee bit too serious.  I'll get along with my neighbors just fine.  

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

As a hillbilly I can tell you that is spot on. If that attitude is detected there or here for that matter, you’ll immediately become an outcast and will not be liked or tolerated.

I'm a genetic country person apparently. Never accepted it fully until past few years. I'm sick of the chase here man. My patience tank for this place is just about empty. You might have heard me drop ideas about moving to Kerr or Gaston lake area. That's changed. We're looking at 50 acre properties just east of Smith Mtn lake. I don't think I'll ever forgive myself if I don't lay family roots on land that can be hunted, fished, and farmed for generations. I should have done this 20 years ago but I was trained to think a certain way growing up here. The older I get, the more I realize my mistake. Better late than never tho

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

6 hours ago, Yeoman said:

Hows it looking for Thanksgiving?

I saw some probability maps and there's a 90% chance of having a turkey >= 10 lbs. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 hours ago, baldereagle said:

 

Bless your heart.

 

I lived in Atlanta for some years (while in grad school and after).  Not being from "the South" originally myself, I never heard this expression before and didn't know quite what it meant.  But knew it wasn't complimentary.  I then learned it basically was the "Southern polite" way of saying "F-you" or calling someone a moron!!  What a great, sarcastic phrase!!  Reminiscent of how the British can insult you in a very polite manner, LOL!

Another expression I heard from a friend of mine in the area, not sure if it's a "Southern" thing.  But on a very hot, ugly humid day, he once said "It's hotter than two rats f**ing in a wool sock!"  Which pretty well described it!