March Medium/Long Range Discussion

[IceCAPS]

12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Only one year recently did April snow in my yard...2014--where we went on basically a two-month heater from Feb on!!

Well then, we're due! Longshot, I know but springtime brings such a roller-coaster of temp swings that almost anything is possible. 90 degrees one day followed by a chance at frozen on its heels.

[wxdude64]

26 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Only one year recently did April snow in my yard...2014--where we went on basically a two-month heater from Feb on!!

A TINY bit in 2020, 0.2 on 4/11, 1.7 on 4/9-10 2018 and 1.5 4/9-10 2016 here

[Roger Smith]

Got a good feeling about mid-March, all this cold air continuing to spread south on a regular basis can't keep missing cyclogenesis every single time, or can it? 

The current 360h GFS shows a large energy peak on the east coast, all its other details can be safely ignored at this time range but the timing seems about right, March 13 is after all a date with some pedigree for storms on the east coast (both 1993 and 1888 overlapped it). 

It just seems like this winter wants to go for it but can't quite put it all together, maybe at the buzzer it will sink a three-pointer (great March madness imagery, or am I just mad? Beware the ideas of March). 

[Ji]

Damn...just saw this.  Northern tier approves..

It trended south

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS for Day 5.  Note: GEFS support is minimal.

[CAPE]

Fun times tracking another small scale event lol. As advertised it is probably about a 50-75 mile wide area of decent precip. At h5 there really isn't a shortwave, and the upper jet as advertised isn't all that favorable. Appears this would mostly be driven by the sharp temperature gradient across the Artic boundary with fgen forcing at h7 and h85. I am sure the models have the location of that boundary (and forcing) nailed. 

[MD Snow]

48 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Fun times tracking another small scale event lol. As advertised it is probably about a 50-75 mile wide area of decent precip. At h5 there really isn't a shortwave, and the upper jet as advertised isn't all that favorable. Appears this would mostly be driven by the sharp temperature gradient across the Artic boundary with fgen forcing at h7 and h85. I am sure the models have the location of that boundary (and forcing) nailed. 

At this juncture, it would be nice to keep the boundary slightly south of us for a few more days before the bleed north as the Euro and CMC currently have it. 

[CAPE]

42 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

At this juncture, it would be nice to keep the boundary slightly south of us for a few more days before the bleed north as the Euro and CMC currently have it. 

This has been pretty persistent on the GFS op runs, but it's an odd set up. Basically a glancing blow type frontal boundary with some colder air behind it, but I have my doubts about how far south it actually gets, the degree of cold, and the mechanism for any significant precip. Probably the most likely outcome is an uneventful brief cool down before we warm again next weekend.

The 6z GEFS suggests maybe a light coating of snow, but not much of anything on the CMC ens or the EPS.

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This has been pretty persistent on the GFS op runs, but it's an odd set up. Basically a glancing blow type frontal boundary with some colder air behind it, but I have my doubts about how far south it actually gets, the degree of cold, and the mechanism for any significant precip. Probably the most likely outcome is an uneventful brief cool down before we warm again next weekend.

The 6z GEFS suggests maybe a light coating of snow, but not much of anything on the CMC ens or the EPS.

Its exceptionally tuff to feel a lick of good about any event that approaches downhill from the west. Almost always a phantom as it's a fight instead of a dance to create lift/precip. I know you know this. General comment. I'd gladly take whatever but this is a really bad way in general to get anything done

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Its exceptionally tuff to feel a lick of good about any event that approaches downhill from the west. Almost always a phantom as it's a fight instead of a dance to create lift/precip. I know you know this. General comment. I'd gladly take whatever but this is a really bad way in general to get anything done

Exactly. I made a post the other day when it first showed up on the GFS saying the same thing. This sort of a deal might work better for places further NE, but pretty low probability around here east of the mountains.

[Bob Chill]

36 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Exactly. I made a post the other day when it first showed up on the GFS saying the same thing. This sort of a deal might work better for places further NE, but pretty low probability around here east of the mountains.

On another note, your posting style has changed last few years and I personally love it. I'm so over cheerleading parties. Around here, with our copious problems getting things to work, it's like having a pep rally at a school with no clubs or teams. Just rah rah. Lol 

You have been straight calling it like you see it. Good, bad, or ugly and condensed/to the point. I've def been part of the rah rah over the years but not the last 4-5 years. Brutal honesty and mindfulness of bias is a powerful way to to look at anything really. You saved me a lot of time this year and it is much appreciated. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

On another note, your posting style has changed last few years and I personally love it. I'm so over cheerleading parties. Around here, with our copious problems getting things to work, it's like having a pep rally at a school with no clubs or teams. Just rah rah. Lol 

You have been straight calling it like you see it. Good, bad, or ugly and condensed/to the point. I've def been part of the rah rah over the years but not the last 4-5 years. Brutal honesty and mindfulness of bias is a powerful way to to look at anything really. You saved me a lot of time this year and it is much appreciated. 

Thanks. I just try to do objective analysis as much as possible without debbing or cheer leading. Years ago on Eastern I came across as too much the former for trying to call it as I saw it. Probably too heavy handed. I simply wasn't as good a poster then either, but most here can probably look back and say that. It was a different environment back then too, with no sub-forums and generally more weenies and model hugging (I think) without knowing/caring about the physics.

[Chris78]

12z gfs still has that streak of snow. This time just south of DC. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GFS….

[stormtracker]

36 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS….

This is how it will play out.

[Maestrobjwa]

52 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I simply wasn't as good a poster then either, but most here can probably look back and say that.

Hard to imagine you or the other great posters like...NOT being great posters at one point! I always thought it was something ya kinda had or didn't have. I feel a little better now, lol

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hard to imagine you or the other great posters like...NOT being great posters at one point! I always thought it was something ya kinda had or didn't have. I feel a little better now, lol

It's all relative lol, but in general, better with age and experience.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

This is how it will play out.

 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hard to imagine you or the other great posters like...NOT being great posters at one point! I always thought it was something ya kinda had or didn't have. I feel a little better now, lol

Ultimately, there's only 1 way in niche forums.. And it is very bumpy and bruisy. It's super fun at first getting involved with storms in at any level. Then you slowly get battered and bruised by the sadistic nature of winter wx here and old timers like messing with new people. It's painful really but a rite of passage. You'll get made fun of along the way to add insult to injury.

Only once you reach capitulation can you become a good poster top to bottom. When your expectations start lining up with the type of event regardless of what models say, you're halfway there. I'm not talking about schleprock downer expectations. Just reasonable ones that have a high probability of being in line with ground truth. Model watching alone will set you up for failure nearly every time. You have to apply what the models shows to the brutal honest reality of where you live. Until you capitulate there, it's hard to have fun. Very. And if you're never having fun here, everybody that can read a room knows/sees it and it's not a good look.

The harder part of becoming a good poster in any corner of the internet is being able to read a room. I mean read it for real and do it quick and accurately. If you're not getting the results out of the experience you think you deserve, the answer lies within. Blame cannot be pointed outward. If it is, the solution is getting further away and not closer. I got beat up pretty good at eastern and rightfully so. You earn everything in forums like this. Million different ways to do it. It all starts with reading a room properly and adding value. Value comes in all shapes and forms. Technical wx analysis is only a piece of it.  All posts can't be good. I've made 1000s of crappy ones. But I added a lot of value to more than offset that. Value comes easy when your primary goal for participation is to have fun no matter what the outcome. Think about that. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEPS has a few good looks the next two weeks…

[BristowWx]

We’ll get one event that will look great and fall just short

[EastCoast NPZ]

5 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

On another note, your posting style has changed last few years and I personally love it. I'm so over cheerleading parties. Around here, with our copious problems getting things to work, it's like having a pep rally at a school with no clubs or teams. Just rah rah. Lol 

You have been straight calling it like you see it. Good, bad, or ugly and condensed/to the point. I've def been part of the rah rah over the years but not the last 4-5 years. Brutal honesty and mindfulness of bias is a powerful way to to look at anything really. You saved me a lot of time this year and it is much appreciated. 

Cape 2024!

[Stormfly]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GEPS has a few good looks the next two weeks…

Everyone wants 02 but will get 16.

[IceCAPS]

2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Cape 2024!

He'll yes! Anyone but... 

[CAPE]

Where's Ji?

HH GFS was a disaster!

[Chris78]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Where's Ji?

HH GFS was a disaster!

Not a disaster.  Just looks like winter is over. 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Ultimately, there's only 1 way in niche forums.. And it is very bumpy and bruisy. It's super fun at first getting involved with storms in at any level. Then you slowly get battered and bruised by the sadistic nature of winter wx here and old timers like messing with new people. It's painful really but a rite of passage. You'll get made fun of along the way to add insult to injury.

Only once you reach capitulation can you become a good poster top to bottom. When your expectations start lining up with the type of event regardless of what models say, you're halfway there. I'm not talking about schleprock downer expectations. Just reasonable ones that have a high probability of being in line with ground truth. Model watching alone will set you up for failure nearly every time. You have to apply what the models shows to the brutal honest reality of where you live. Until you capitulate there, it's hard to have fun. Very. And if you're never having fun here, everybody that can read a room knows/sees it and it's not a good look.

The harder part of becoming a good poster in any corner of the internet is being able to read a room. I mean read it for real and do it quick and accurately. If you're not getting the results out of the experience you think you deserve, the answer lies within. Blame cannot be pointed outward. If it is, the solution is getting further away and not closer. I got beat up pretty good at eastern and rightfully so. You earn everything in forums like this. Million different ways to do it. It all starts with reading a room properly and adding value. Value comes in all shapes and forms. Technical wx analysis is only a piece of it.  All posts can't be good. I've made 1000s of crappy ones. But I added a lot of value to more than offset that. Value comes easy when your primary goal for participation is to have fun no matter what the outcome. Think about that. 

I think this needs to be pinned at the top of something, lol But seriously...newbs/young uns' like me don't know what they're getting into when coming on a forum like this! What ya described is exactly where I'm at. I feel a little less shame now knowing that other folks have gone through the process (the shame part it tough) and I'm also seeing that there is a lot of stuff within that needs to be looked at. Teaching me that I got long ways to go with how I process stuff in general. And it has been bruising and painful...and I ain't handled it great (mostly because if shame. I learn from criticism but get defensive because of shame).

I am not sure how good I'll ever be at posting about technical details...but I'm almost sure I'll be able to pick up on tendencies (like what progressive patterns without blocking do...or no do in this case, lol). I think I can get better at reading H5 and such, though.

Anyway, thank you so much for your post--ya always keep it 100.

[Maestrobjwa]

On another note (A--which in fixes do is la..la nina, lol).....Now, I got ridden pretty hard for kinda dismissing this winter as another mediocre la nina for my yard. And...the first week of January, it looked like my prediction was gonna fail miserably, lol But lo and behold...by snowfall amount, the nina did exactly what I thought it would! 13-15" through mostly WAA events, with closer to the beaches having a better shot! I mean, on paper, that's just like 2017-18 to me. 

But I realize that we can have different circumstances produce equal results--like the 18" of 2017-18 being from literal 1-2 inchers striking at rush hour, and a rare March pasting of a few inches,! Whereas this year it was made of one active yet underpeforming week...(for my yard and n/nw) and then 1 or 2 nickel and dimes, lol

But yet the NS was still dominant and progressive, and we didn't have blocking (I do wanna look up Ninas and whether ENSO correlates with blocking, though). Now someone can correct me on whether the ENSO state was the reason for our woes, or whether there were other non-related reasons.

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Where's Ji?

HH GFS was a disaster!

He’s still lamenting that southern slider that gave him about 6” and then promptly disappeared after he trashed it.

[87storms]

too early for post-winter analysis, but it really does seem like it followed a la nina to a tee (aside from a couple of january events).  just couldn't get a consistent southern stream to get going.  with that said, i did expect more in the way of clippers, especially based off of the november pattern.  that part surprised me a bit given the fact that the northern stream was the primary player.