LibertyBell Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: There are two March snowfall peaks. The larger one is from March 1st to 10th when most of the heaviest snow has fallen in the 1991-2020 climate normals period. There is a smaller but still significant period from March 13th to 21st. So it looks like we will miss the first interval in early March. But the models are hinting that it could snow here during the 13th to 21st period.There is a very sharp fall off in snowfall after the 21st. Heaviest March snowfall days at ISP from 1991 to 2020 3-1….11.7 3-2…22.7 3-3….6.3 3-5….7.4 3-7….10.0 3-8….7.9 3-10…6.1 3-13…14.4 3-15….7.8 3-16….6.5 3-21….17.5 Chris, what do you think of the early April peak? There are two April snowstorms that would make the top 10 March list too. I find April snowstorms to be more memorable than what I've seen in March. Does the early April peak result in major snowstorms like either of the March peaks (4"+)? Let's use the airports as a base. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s not anything like the two snowfall peaks in March. So I am not sure we can really call it a peak. There have only been 3 years with widespread 4”+ amounts in April since 1991. The 3 years were 1996, 2003, and 2018. The one common denominator between those years are seasonal snowfall totals in excess of 50” in spots around the area. So a reflection of seasons with extraordinary snowfall output. 2018 stands out because it was an extreme backloaded season while the others were snowy throughout. I figured you'd say April 1982 stands out too because how cold and snowy that storm was, as great as any of the top 10 in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 10 days out.......but here we go in the words of Mr. MC Hammer--- this threat is...... "too legit to quit" 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 19 minutes ago, bluewave said: I was just looking at the 1991-2020 climate normals period. The April 1982 blizzard was probably a 100 year event. We haven’t seen true blizzard conditions and record cold combined in April since then. Almost like a leftover from the Little Ice Age like the 76-77 record cold winter. That was right around the time our warming began to really accelerate. Indeed-- I strongly believe April 1982 was more rare than March 1993 was and more historic too as well as more rare and historic than Sandy was. Do you find the October 2011 event to be equally as rare and historic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 44 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Indeed-- I strongly believe April 1982 was more rare than March 1993 was and more historic too as well as more rare and historic than Sandy was. Do you find the October 2011 event to be equally as rare and historic? I would…1982, 1976-2002 April heat…January 2011 February 2010 snows… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Indeed-- I strongly believe April 1982 was more rare than March 1993 was and more historic too as well as more rare and historic than Sandy was. Do you find the October 2011 event to be equally as rare and historic? Sandy has by far the highest reoccurrence rate of any of the above at 1-600 years. The others are probably closer to 1-100 years. what I would love to see is a repeat of the March 1993 event triple phaser displaced 100 miles to the east. That would be our all time snow event 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks. People should respect how great April 1982 was in that it would almost make the list of Top 10 March snowfalls too! And the April 1910 storm (I hope I have the year right?) would be in the top 10 too. I should remember this storm ..6.9" 3/8-9/1984 But I do not.... all snow? And I definitely dont remember this ..8.6" 3/5/1981 too young, April 1982 which happened the following year was my first snowfall memory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Wow Craig Allen has been at this for almost 40 years 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 2 hours ago, Doorman said: 10 days out.......but here we go in the words of Mr. MC Hammer--- this threat is...... "too legit to quit" Yep that timeframe looks good for something to pop. AO falling with a nice negative epo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 16 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: Wow Craig Allen has been at this for almost 40 years indeed he has and he still looks young for his age... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yep that timeframe looks good for something to pop. AO falling with a nice negative epo. This is for you Ant!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Ton of powder at Belleayre today from overnight snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 A trackable high power storm would be a dream, but I’d gladly take a 1-2” widespread coating event. Just want to see a little more cold white stuff before I go back to sweating like a maniac for six months in work attire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 So we went from seeing March looking warm then suddenly Everly went to the cold view, now we're back to warmer? Someone please give a summary of what things are currently hinting/ suggesting. Please and thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Did get a coating of snow on cars and grass last night. 38 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Did get a coating of snow on cars and grass last night. 38 right now. I just had ice on my car and the roads were icy but no snow near me and I am over in Beekman. I did see snow on some cars going down to the city for my commute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Nice to see the far interior finally starting to make up for an awful winter. Hopefully that snow line can move down to near NYC and the NW suburbs at some point this month. SE of NYC has already gone well over seasonal averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The 12z Euro is on steroids with a cutter dropping to 940mb in SE Canada day 10. love the signal for a big-time event --------- Textbook -EPO from the 12z GEFS adds to our weenie fuel supply 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 37 minutes ago, Doorman said: How did the last major “snowstorm” (or should I say sleet storm) you predicted work out for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 stay tuned..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Cooler air started pushing into the region following passage of a strong cold front early this morning. In the Southeast, there was near record and record warmth. At Atlanta, the temperature reached 80°, which tied the record set in 1992. At Charlotte, the mercury reached 85°, which broke the old record of 84° from 1976. That was also Charlotte's earliest 85° or above temperature on record. Tomorrow will be fair but unseasonably cold. Temperatures will likely start in the teens outside the major cities of the northern Middle Atlantic region and lower 20s elsewhere and then recover to only the middle and upper 30s. However, a sharp rebound in temperatures is likely on Sunday. Sunday and Monday could provide an early preview of springlike readings across much of the region. Afterward, readings could cool, but remain above seasonable levels until after March 10th. Then, there is growing model consensus that a noticeably colder pattern could develop. The development and duration of such a pattern remain somewhat uncertain. Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal. There may also be one or two opportunities for at least some measurable snow in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around February 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least late March. The SOI was +18.43 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.169. On March 1 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.468 (RMM). The February 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.563 (RMM). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 10 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Well at least we have a range of dates to focus on....between March 10 to March 20. Anything after that would likely be insignificant to minor (under 4"). But I think people on here dont care as long as it's something it's considered a snowy pattern. Go back to 1979 and count all the major NYC snowstorms that occurred after 3/15 over that 43 year period, shouldn’t take you long at all. This is why I’m at a loss when I look at all these “great snow pattern coming mid-month (3/15) and beyond”….maybe central and northern New England score? Even among those freak/fluke, anomalous big NYC snowstorms post 3/15 over the last 43 years, almost every single one of them had solid -NAO blocking, which isn’t happening this time around. Not sure what the hype and excitement is about, despite what JB and his followers are saying on twitter 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 The way I interpret this Snowman is that it’s a pattern conducive to snow. Nothing more, nothing less. Of course that doesn’t mean a snowstorm here is likely or will happen by any means; just that it could. It’s good enough for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Currently 33F here. 44F was the high for the day, which occured shortly before 2 this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Record highs possible on Sunday. Newark 3/6 69 in 1935 64 in 2004 62 in 1976+ 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 some analog year winter monthly average temp...mild Dec...cold Jan...mild Feb... winter.........Dec....Jan....Feb....Mar....total snowfall... 2021-22.....43.8...30.3...37.3....................17.5"... 1956-57.....40.9...28.5...37.3...41.9..........21.9"... 1953-54.....41.3...30.8...40.1...41.6..........15.8"... 1984-85.....43.8...28.8...36.6...45.1..........24.1"... 1999-00.....40.0...31.3...37.3...47.2..........16.3"... 1996-97.....41.3...32.2...40.0...41.9..........10.0"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 10 hours ago, Doorman said: 10 days out.......but here we go in the words of Mr. MC Hammer--- this threat is...... "too legit to quit" Hail Mary full of grace,,,,,,,,,,, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 The pattern shown on the operational models through 3/15 demonstrates the importance of having -NAO block in place….when you don’t, you get this as a result: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2022030406&fh=264&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 16F here currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 45degs.(38/53), or +5. Reached 44 yesterday during early AM, just 42 during the day. Today: 36-39, wind w., m. clear, 30 tomorrow AM. 22*(47%RH) here at 6am. 25* at 9am. 29* at Noon. 35* at 3pm. Reached 41* bet. 4pm-5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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