March 2022

[Volcanic Winter]

Thanks Bluewave. 
 

Let me get one more decent cold shot mid month and I’ll be happy to call this winter a wrap, snow or no snow. Just want to be reminded I don’t live in South Carolina. 

[MJO812]

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, uncle W said:

in my lifetime it snowed on my Birthday March 28th or the day after a few times...

1959...27-28th...1" snow and sleet...

1970...29th...4" rain changing to snow...

1974...29th...3-4" rain changing to snow...

1984...28th-29th...3-4" snow/rain/sleet/snow...

1996...28th-29th...4" snow/rain/snow...

1996 was outstanding with three 4"+ events in March and another one in April here.

When did it snow here in March 1999 and how much did we get?

[MJO812]

Pattern is conducive mid month for sure with the big negative epo

[uncle W]

46 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1996 was outstanding with three 4"+ events in March and another one in April here.

When did it snow here in March 1999 and how much did we get?

mid March 1999...end of March 1997...First day of Spring 1998...April snow 2000...four straight bad winters with late snow chances...

[SnoSki14]

The 10-20th period looks interesting. EPO supplying cold air and there's some western ridging. Even a bit of Atlantic blocking too. 

[Fantom X]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

1996 was outstanding with three 4"+ events in March and another one in April here.

When did it snow here in March 1999 and how much did we get?

4-6" mid march 1999

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, uncle W said:

mid March 1999...end of March 1997...First day of Spring 1998...April snow 2000...four straight bad winters with late snow chances...

April 1990 too....

 

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

1996 was outstanding with three 4"+ events in March and another one in April here.

When did it snow here in March 1999 and how much did we get?

 

It was Sunday night 10pm-6am Monday AM.  I got 7.5 in Nassau.  Most places saw 6-10 I think on LI with 3-6 in Queens/NYC though the airports due to it being 32-33 measured low.  I think models simply could not resolve how well the lower level cold air would advect in...it was like 48-50 degrees at 6pm.  I recall clearly the 4pm update Upton dropped the WSW which was out entirely.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

It was Sunday night 10pm-6am Monday AM.  I got 7.5 in Nassau.  Most places saw 6-10 I think on LI with 3-6 in Queens/NYC though the airports due to it being 32-33 measured low.  I think models simply could not resolve how well the lower level cold air would advect in...it was like 48-50 degrees at 6pm.  I recall clearly the 4pm update Upton dropped the WSW which was out entirely.

Seems like a lot of our March events.

Funnily, we then have early April events which drop a lot more snow during the day like April 2003 and April 2018

 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Seems like a lot of our March events.

Funnily, we then have early April events which drop a lot more snow during the day like April 2003 and April 2018

 

There is a notable snow min 3/15-3/30 then a second peak 4/1-4/10...I don't know if thats purely by chance as we are only talking about a period of 130 years or it may be a factor of continued shortening wavelengths leading to better chance a system is not able to wrap up and go inland or along the coast in April leading to better chance of a favorable snow track

[brooklynwx99]

we're likely going to see another legit threat or two if this pattern comes to fruition

elongated TPV over SE Canada, EPO blocking, western ridging, and even some indications of ridging into Greenland. this is a very cold, active pattern

the next week or so will be quiet, but winter is definitely not over

[donsutherland1]

Another shot of cold air will arrive tomorrow. Cool conditions will likely continue into the start of the weekend. The height of the cold will be on Friday where temperatures could start in the teens outside the major cities of the northern Middle Atlantic region and lower 20s elsewhere.

However, a sharp rebound in temperatures is likely on Sunday. Sunday and Monday could provide an early preview of springlike readings across much of the region. Afterward, readings could cool, but remain above seasonable levels.

Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal. There may also be one or two opportunities for at least some measurable snow in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around February 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least late March.

The SOI was +16.18 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.661.

On February 28 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.558 (RMM). The February 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.716 (RMM).

 

[uncle W]

17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There is a notable snow min 3/15-3/30 then a second peak 4/1-4/10...I don't know if thats purely by chance as we are only talking about a period of 130 years or it may be a factor of continued shortening wavelengths leading to better chance a system is not able to wrap up and go inland or along the coast in April leading to better chance of a favorable snow track

I know on March 6th there have been 15 snowfalls 2" or more on that date...2001 had 1.5" on 3/6...It could be the most 2" or more snowfall for any date throughout the season...

[bluewave]

52 minutes ago, uncle W said:

mid March 1999...end of March 1997...First day of Spring 1998...April snow 2000...four straight bad winters with late snow chances...

3-15-99 was one of my favorite snowstorms of the 96-97 to 99-00 snow drought era. Very heavy wet snow resulted in numerous broken branches. Some parts of the region had power outages. Most of Long Island finished in 6-10” range. Great west based -AO block and evaporational  cooling did the job. 
 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...FINAL SNOWFALL TOTALS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1050 PM EST MON MAR 15 1999

LOCATION                    COUNTY          SNOWFALL AMOUNT (IN)

NEW YORK...
CENTRAL PARK                NEW YORK        4.0   
JFK AIRPORT                 QUEENS          4.0   
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT           QUEENS          4.0
SOUTH NYACK                 ROCKLAND        9.0
OCEANSIDE                   NASSAU          5.8
DEER PARK                   SUFFOLK         8.0
HUNTINGTON STATION          SUFFOLK         7.5
RIDGE                       SUFFOLK         7.0
COPIAGUE                    SUFFOLK         5.5
SOUTHHAMPTON                SUFFOLK         9.0
STATEN ISLAND               RICHMOND        4.5
WEST BABYLON                SUFFOLK         6.5
LAKE RONKONKOMA             SUFFOLK         9.5
CENTERPORT                  SUFFOLK         9.2
FARMINGVILLE                SUFFOLK         7.0
MASSAPEQUA                  NASSAU          6.5
HICKSVILLE                  NASSAU          6.1
ALBERTSON                   NASSAU          6.4
BRIDGEHAMPTON               SUFFOLK         9.0
NORWICH                     NASSAU          7.0
MINEOLA                     NASSAU          6.0
WHITE PLAINS                WESTCHESTER     5.6
YORKTOWN HEIGHTS            WESTCHESTER    10.0  
ROCKY POINT                 SUFFOLK         6.5
LYNBROOK                    NASSAU          6.0
WADING RIVER                SUFFOLK         7.0 
ISLIP AIRPORT               SUFFOLK         7.5
KINGS PARK                  SUFFOLK        11.0
SOUTH SETAUKET              SUFFOLK         9.2
MT SINAI                    SUFFOLK         9.0
PORT JEFFERSON              SUFFOLK        10.0
MEDFORD                     SUFFOLK         8.0
GRAVESEND                   KINGS           5.3
PATCHOGUE                   SUFFOLK         7.6
RONKONKOMA                  SUFFOLK         7.5
HOLBROOK                    SUFFOLK         8.0   
NWS BROOKHAVEN              SUFFOLK         8.0
CHESTER                     ORANGE          9.0
WARWICK                     ORANGE          9.0  
PLUM ISLAND          

WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE ACROSS THE AREA AND 
SOME POWER OUTAGES.

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There is a notable snow min 3/15-3/30 then a second peak 4/1-4/10...I don't know if thats purely by chance as we are only talking about a period of 130 years or it may be a factor of continued shortening wavelengths leading to better chance a system is not able to wrap up and go inland or along the coast in April leading to better chance of a favorable snow track

thats weird I thought the snow min was after the 22nd, as I remember a few events right around the equinox.

dont we also have an interesting lack of 100 degree days in the last week of July?

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

3-15-99 was one of my favorite snowstorms of the 96-97 to 99-00 snow drought era. Very heavy wet snow resulted in numerous broken branches. Some parts of the region had power outages. Most of Long Island finished in 6-10” range. Great west based -AO block and evaporational  cooling did the job. 
 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...FINAL SNOWFALL TOTALS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1050 PM EST MON MAR 15 1999

LOCATION                    COUNTY          SNOWFALL AMOUNT (IN)

NEW YORK...
CENTRAL PARK                NEW YORK        4.0   
JFK AIRPORT                 QUEENS          4.0   
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT           QUEENS          4.0
SOUTH NYACK                 ROCKLAND        9.0
OCEANSIDE                   NASSAU          5.8
DEER PARK                   SUFFOLK         8.0
HUNTINGTON STATION          SUFFOLK         7.5
RIDGE                       SUFFOLK         7.0
COPIAGUE                    SUFFOLK         5.5
SOUTHHAMPTON                SUFFOLK         9.0
STATEN ISLAND               RICHMOND        4.5
WEST BABYLON                SUFFOLK         6.5
LAKE RONKONKOMA             SUFFOLK         9.5
CENTERPORT                  SUFFOLK         9.2
FARMINGVILLE                SUFFOLK         7.0
MASSAPEQUA                  NASSAU          6.5
HICKSVILLE                  NASSAU          6.1
ALBERTSON                   NASSAU          6.4
BRIDGEHAMPTON               SUFFOLK         9.0
NORWICH                     NASSAU          7.0
MINEOLA                     NASSAU          6.0
WHITE PLAINS                WESTCHESTER     5.6
YORKTOWN HEIGHTS            WESTCHESTER    10.0  
ROCKY POINT                 SUFFOLK         6.5
LYNBROOK                    NASSAU          6.0
WADING RIVER                SUFFOLK         7.0 
ISLIP AIRPORT               SUFFOLK         7.5
KINGS PARK                  SUFFOLK        11.0
SOUTH SETAUKET              SUFFOLK         9.2
MT SINAI                    SUFFOLK         9.0
PORT JEFFERSON              SUFFOLK        10.0
MEDFORD                     SUFFOLK         8.0
GRAVESEND                   KINGS           5.3
PATCHOGUE                   SUFFOLK         7.6
RONKONKOMA                  SUFFOLK         7.5
HOLBROOK                    SUFFOLK         8.0   
NWS BROOKHAVEN              SUFFOLK         8.0
CHESTER                     ORANGE          9.0
WARWICK                     ORANGE          9.0  
PLUM ISLAND          

WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE ACROSS THE AREA AND 
SOME POWER OUTAGES.

I had to do a double and triple take..... NYC, JFK AND LGA WERE ALL 4.0"?  HOW IS THAT EVEN POSSIBLE?

Looks like we had 6" here and there was close to a foot of snow on the north shore of LI

[uncle W]

March dates with the most 3" snowfalls...

3/2...6

3/6...7

3/15...5

3/16...5

3/22...6

3/29...4

[CIK62]

LOOK AT THIS.      MOSES COMES DOWN FROM THE MOUNTAIN GRADUALLY,  BUT THEN FALLS INTO A CREVICE AND SMASHES HIS TABLETS TO BITS.        THE  "0" COMES WITH 15" OF SNOW..........................

[Volcanic Winter]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

we're likely going to see another legit threat or two if this pattern comes to fruition

elongated TPV over SE Canada, EPO blocking, western ridging, and even some indications of ridging into Greenland. this is a very cold, active pattern

the next week or so will be quiet, but winter is definitely not over

My hero. Looking spicy!

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, uncle W said:

March dates with the most 3" snowfalls...

3/2...6

3/6...7

3/15...5

3/16...5

3/22...6

3/29...4

Got anything for the 12-13....looks like that period is favored on the models

What are the days with the most 6" snowfalls?

[snowman19]

12 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Pattern is conducive mid month for sure with the big negative epo

The great snowstorm pattern is only 12-15 days away! Problem is when it’s March and it stays 12-15 days away in time, you run out of time very quickly. This isn’t December or January or February when you can keep moving the goal posts forward in time and kick the can down the road and still have viable climo winter left. In 12-15 days we are past 3/15, once past that date, good luck getting a major snowstorm in NYC, we aren’t central and northern New England. Climo, sun angle and length of day are big issues come mid-month at our latitude 

[LoboLeader1]

37 here currently, topped out at 48 yesterday.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will become partly sunny. Temperatures will fall sharply this evening. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 44°

Newark: 45°

Philadelphia: 50°

Tomorrow will be blustery and cold.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 45.8°; 15-Year: 46.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 46.9°; 15-Year: 47.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 48.7°; 15-Year: 48.9°

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 43degs.(35/52) or +3.

Reached 54 here yesterday.

Today: 40-42, steady during  daytime,  down to 20 overnight, wind nw., breezy, clearing skies.

CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1" SNOW is zero until the 13th., and only about 50-50 overall:

40*(70%RH) here at 6am.{was 44* at 4am}    39* at 7am.       42* at 3pm.       30* at 9pm.      28* at 10pm.

[uncle W]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Got anything for the 12-13....looks like that period is favored on the models

What are the days with the most 6" snowfalls?

Biggest snowfalls
21.0" 3/12-14/1888
18.1" 3/7-8/1941
14.5" 3/3-4/1960
14.5" 3/1-2/1914
12.0" 3/15-16/1896
11.8" 3/20-21/1958
11.6" 3/18-19/1956
10.6" 3/13-14/1993

10.0" 3/2/1896
..9.8" 3/21-22/1967

..9.4" 2/28-3/1 1949

..8.6" 3/5/1981

..8.4" 3/21-22/2018

..8.3" 3/1-2/2009

..8.0" 3/18-19/1892

..7.7" 3/6-7 1915

..7.7" 2/28-3/1 2005

..7.6" 3/6-7/1916

..7.6" 3/14/2017

..7.5" 3/5/2015

..7.3" 3/6-7/1923

..6.9" 3/8-9/1984

..6.7" 3/4-5/1917

..6.7" 3/16-17/1956

..6.6" 2/29-3/1/ 1968

..6.5" 3/5/1902

..6.2" 3/19/1992

..6.0" 3/6-7/1870

..6.0" 3/19/1890

..6.0" 3/10/1907

..6.0" 3/15/1906

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The great snowstorm pattern is only 12-15 days away! Problem is when it’s March and it stays 12-15 days away in time, you run out of time very quickly. This isn’t December or January or February when you can keep moving the goal posts forward in time and kick the can down the road and still have viable climo winter left. In 12-15 days we are past 3/15, once past that date, good luck getting a major snowstorm in NYC, we aren’t central and northern New England. Climo, sun angle and length of day are big issues come mid-month at our latitude 

Well at least we have a range of dates to focus on....between March 10 to March 20.  Anything after that would likely be insignificant to minor (under 4").  But I think people on here dont care as long as it's something it's considered a snowy pattern.

 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, uncle W said:

Biggest snowfalls
21.0" 3/12-14/1888
18.1" 3/7-8/1941
14.5" 3/3-4/1960
14.5" 3/1-2/1914
12.0" 3/15-16/1896
11.8" 3/20-21/1958
11.6" 3/18-19/1956
10.6" 3/13-14/1993

10.0" 3/2/1896
..9.8" 3/21-22/1967

..9.4" 2/28-3/1 1949

..8.6" 3/5/1981

..8.4" 3/21-22/2018

..8.3" 3/1-2/2009

..8.0" 3/18-19/1892

..7.7" 3/6-7 1915

..7.7" 2/28-3/1 2005

..7.6" 3/6-7/1916

..7.6" 3/14/2017

..7.5" 3/5/2015

..7.3" 3/6-7/1923

..6.9" 3/8-9/1984

..6.7" 3/4-5/1917

..6.7" 3/16-17/1956

..6.6" 2/29-3/1/ 1968

..6.5" 3/5/1902

..6.2" 3/19/1992

..6.0" 3/6-7/1870

..6.0" 3/19/1890

..6.0" 3/10/1907

..6.0" 3/15/1906

I remember this one so vividly

..6.2" 3/19/1992

It was NYC first 6"+ snowfall in YEARS, here it kept changing back and forth between snow and rain and we got like 4"...can you check the JFK numbers for this storm, please?

Wasn't there another one in the early 90s when we had two snow events in March, I remember one was forecast to be 5-8" but we ended up with 3-5" instead....was that also in March 1992 or a different year?

 

[uncle W]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember this one so vividly

..6.2" 3/19/1992

It was NYC first 6"+ snowfall in YEARS, here it kept changing back and forth between snow and rain and we got like 4"...can you check the JFK numbers for this storm, please?

Wasn't there another one in the early 90s when we had two snow events in March, I remember one was forecast to be 5-8" but we ended up with 3-5" instead....was that also in March 1992 or a different year?

 

you can find all jfk numbers here...

Climate (weather.gov)

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, uncle W said:

you can find all jfk numbers here...

Climate (weather.gov)

Thanks.  People should respect how great April 1982 was in that it would almost make the list of Top 10 March snowfalls too!  And the April 1910 storm (I hope I have the year right?) would be in the top 10 too.

I should remember this storm

..6.9" 3/8-9/1984

But I do not.... all snow?

And I definitely dont remember this

..8.6" 3/5/1981

too young, April 1982 which happened the following year was my first snowfall memory.