donsutherland1 Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 Tomorrow will be fair and mild before another shot of cold air arrives for late in the week and the start of the weekend. However, a sharp rebound in temperatures is likely starting Sunday. Sunday through Tuesday could provide an early taste of springlike readings across much of the region. Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal. There may also be one or two opportunities for at least some measurable snow in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around February 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least late March. The SOI was +11.97 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.819. On February 27 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.713 (RMM). The February 26-adjusted amplitude was 0.684 (RMM). 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 Pretty cold on the gfs mid month 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 24 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Pretty cold on the gfs mid month Hopefully not. Cold in mid-late March is cloudy, usually with a chilly rain & low 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 6 hours ago, snowman19 said: You can set your watch to it, feels like it happens every late March anymore. There are growing signs showing up on guidance that after mid-month, a -AO/-NAO shows up, especially closer to the Equinox (3/20) on the other models. Hopefully that is dead wrong, no one wants to be backdoored with chilly, rainy crap weather at the end of March going into April I’m rooting for that to be right. I’d like to see a late March early April nor’easter/blizzard, and it looks like we could have a shot at it this year. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Hopefully not. Cold in mid-late March is cloudy, usually with a chilly rain & low 40s. For some strange reason NYC has climatological holes in snow from 1/1-1/6 and also 3/19-3/27 or so despite having big events before and after that..I'll never figure that one out, especially the early April max 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: For some strange reason NYC has climatological holes in snow from 1/1-1/6 and also 3/19-3/27 or so despite having big events before and after that..I'll never figure that one out, especially the early April max early April snow is AMAZING 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: early April snow is AMAZING The amazing part is that it’s totally gone in less than 12 hours 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Pretty cold on the gfs mid month Too little too late and it’s the GFS which means it’s almost guaranteed to be wrong. A laughably horrible model 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 28 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The amazing part is that it’s totally gone in less than 12 hours yup lol thats true too, but the amazing part for me is actually knowing it's the last time I'll see it for 6+ months so when you know it's the last time you enjoy it more. I think the April 2018 6" snowstorm was gone a day later but the one in April 2003 (also 6" here) was actually around for 3 days afterwards....not that it actually mattered, getting an all day snowstorm in April was what was amazing about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 On 2/27/2022 at 8:30 PM, MJO812 said: I'm going to inquire about other state police departments. I don't like NYC . Sorry, I missed this. Best wishes! I look forward to seeing where you end up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Too little too late and it’s the GFS which means it’s almost guaranteed to be wrong. A laughably horrible model The cold will be back Deal with it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 So much for that stratospheric warming and weakening, splitting SPV come mid-March hype….it recovers and goes right back to being strong as hell. Those -AO forecasts post 3/15 should be viewed with extreme skepticism 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: The cold will be back Deal with it It's your own fault for responding 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: So much for that stratospheric warming and weakening, splitting SPV come mid-March hype….it recovers and goes right back to being strong as hell. Those -AO forecasts post 3/15 should be viewed with extreme skepticism There has to be something other than this that would bring about an -AO? Dont singular AO regimes have a limited lifespan anyway....after a few weeks they revert back to what they were before? What exactly is it that would keep the +AO going....does it feedback into something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: It's your own fault for responding Neither of them have any control over the weather, so it's not even worth arguing about. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and mild. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Some areas could reach the middle 50s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 49° Newark: 50° Philadelphia: 57° Colder air will return tomorrow and persist into the start of the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 45.6°; 15-Year: 45.9° Newark: 30-Year: 46.6°; 15-Year: 47.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 48.1°; 15-Year: 48.2° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Currently 39 here after an overnite low of 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 47degs.(38/55) or +7. Reached 47 here yesterday around 11pm. Today: 48-51, wind sw., few clouds. 43*(68%RH) here at 6am. 42* at 7am. 50* at 2pm. 53* at 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 I miss winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 6 hours ago, snowman19 said: Tick tock, tick tock, tick tock……. Yeah. Im in agreement with you. 37F at 8 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: I miss winter Good morning Anthony. The wait/anticipation for its return will be enjoyable with a partner by your side. I miss my partner more than winter and when that loss arrives there is no return. Stay well and look forward to the happiness of your warm season. As always ….. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 13 hours ago, LibertyBell said: yup lol thats true too, but the amazing part for me is actually knowing it's the last time I'll see it for 6+ months so when you know it's the last time you enjoy it more. I think the April 2018 6" snowstorm was gone a day later but the one in April 2003 (also 6" here) was actually around for 3 days afterwards....not that it actually mattered, getting an all day snowstorm in April was what was amazing about it. Nothing will ever beat 4/6/82 for April snow IMHO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: I miss winter It'll be back before too long. Personally, I'm all about late-season snow. But if it's not gonna happen, then I'm all for some nice Spring weather. Nothing worse than cold, dreary, BDCF-ridden Springs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 3 hours ago, bluewave said: March 1-10 snowfall in NYC has been a good indicator over the last 30 years on how snowy March will be. There is currently no measurable snowfall in the forecast through the 10th. All the years this has happened since 2010 have featured below normal snowfall for the month. 2004 was the last time there was a 4.0” or more total for the month. 1990s El Niño’s featured the best outcomes since they are backloaded by nature. But there was one La Niña year in 1999 that surpassed 4.0”. So maybe a 1999 type outcome could be our best hope with the La Niña in the mix this winter. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Mar 1 to Mar 10 March Snowfall 1 2021-03-10 0.0 T - 2020-03-10 0.0 T - 2012-03-10 0.0 0.0 - 2011-03-10 0.0 1.0 - 2002-03-10 0.0 T - 2000-03-10 0.0 0.4 - 1998-03-10 0.0 5.0 - 1992-03-10 0.0 9.4 - 1991-03-10 0.0 0.2 10 2010-03-10 T T - 2008-03-10 T T - 2004-03-10 T 4.8 - 1999-03-10 T 4.5 - 1995-03-10 T T in my lifetime it snowed on my Birthday March 28th or the day after a few times... 1959...27-28th...1" snow and sleet... 1970...29th...4" rain changing to snow... 1974...29th...3-4" rain changing to snow... 1984...28th-29th...3-4" snow/rain/sleet/snow... 1996...28th-29th...4" snow/rain/snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Gfs says winter isn't over yet 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs says winter isn't over yet The GFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 15 hours ago, LibertyBell said: early April snow is AMAZING If we get it, at least it won't affect any baseball games this year...but that's an entirely different discussion. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Being I work for state parks I'll take a cold crappie less warm sunny weather for a long as possible! Keeps all the crazy people, city people, tourists away lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 5 hours ago, rclab said: Good morning Anthony. The wait/anticipation for its return will be enjoyable with a partner by your side. I miss my partner more than winter and when that loss arrives there is no return. Stay well and look forward to the happiness of your warm season. As always ….. rclab, I could not have said it better. I feel and know your pain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Similar theme as recent days on the 12z EPS. Warmer than average pattern for early March with a dominant SE Ridge. Maybe the first run on 70° this spring for the warm spots on Sunday. The EPS gradually weakens the SE Ridge in mid-March with colder temperatures filtering in from the west. The monthly departure will probably be decided by the late month pattern which is still outside the best model range. We’ll probably get some clues from the March 5 Euro monthly update. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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