March 2022

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Yes but we also have a negative epo

Which is too far west for us to benefit from 

[binbisso]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

This season is a very sharp reversal of last winter for snow. The bonanza zones in E PA and N NJ are way below average this year and New England way better. Boston taking Central Park to the woodshed with over 50” so far, above normal and Central Park 17.5” which I’d say is well below. Last year both were tied. In many respects this winter is acting more like a typical Nina other than the couple of suppressed systems. The +AO shafted us. 

 Most of Western and northern New England are well  Below Seasonal snowfall so this is not your typical LA Nina which favors those places.  Coastal New England and Eastern mid Atlantic were the jackpot zones this year. 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Which is too far west for us to benefit from 

We will get bouts of cold air

Mid month is our best chance 

[snowman19]

 

[wishcast_hater]

3 hours ago, binbisso said:

 Most of Western and northern New England are well  Below Seasonal snowfall so this is not your typical LA Nina which favors those places.  Coastal New England and Eastern mid Atlantic were the jackpot zones this year. 

What is a normal La Nina? I'm not calling you out but just saying that we have maybe 100-150 years worth of weather data to go by and in the grand scheme of things its such a small window of time to call anything normal. Maybe I'm wrong.  Just my 2 cents.

[the_other_guy]

8 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

I am really starting to wonder if NYC will see any snow again this winter season. Looks like no threats for next few weeks and then we are in mid March. 

I said this 2 weeks ago.

Never say never, but pretty sure it’s over

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I said this 2 weeks ago.

Never say never, but pretty sure it’s over

Mid March possible snow 

Other than that it's over 

[LoboLeader1]

Made it to 32 today, it's currently 26.

[uncle W]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

ISP is our only major station so far to exceed the new higher 1991-2020 seasonal snowfall normals. 
 

Station…..2021-2022 snowfall….1991-2020 average

NYC….17.5….29.8….-12.3

JFK….21.2….25.9……-4.7

LGA….23.7….29.8…..-6.1

ISP…..35.4….31.8……+3.6

EWR….17.1…..31.5…..-14.4

BDR….25.7….33.6…..-7.9

if NYC gets no more snow it would be like these winters...

2021-22...17.5"...8.3" biggest storm...

1961-62...18.1"...6.2" biggest storm...

1962-63...16.3"...4.2" biggest storm...

1967-68...19.5"...6.6" biggest storm...

1975-76...17.3"...4.2" biggest storm...

1980-81...19.4"...8.6" biggest storm...

1987-88...19.1"...5.8" biggest storm...

1999-00...16.3"...5.5" biggest storm...

Of all eight winters listed I like 1961-62 the best because its biggest snowfall came Christmas eve...Now if we get more snow before its over throw out this list...I still think NYC ends up with over 20" of snow...

 

[gravitylover]

IOW a winter similar to what we used to get before the supercharged transition era? Yeah. 

[snowman19]

11 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Last week of March probably 

Yea, there are some hints in the super long range that a -AO/-NAO may develop (post 3/21), but that’s way too far out to speculate about yet and by then we will be past the Equinox and it would most likely result in a chilly, rainy backdoor pattern that no one will want at the end of March, IF it were to even happen. 3 weeks out, so we’ll see…. In the meantime, Happy Meteorological Spring everyone!! :-)

[mattinpa]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Mid March possible snow 

Other than that it's over 

A window in mid and possibly late March. Maybe we’ll get a rogue big storm in an otherwise mild month like the Old Farmer’s Almanac  predicted. Those publications are never reliable, but it does seem like it might be that kind of month. If not, I’m ready for spring and hoping for a better winter for my location next winter. NYC wasn’t too bad.

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Works better in places further for the ocean. Here in the north east, with NYC really being the Dividing line  March is still a cold season month. Having lived in Maryland for 4 years for college, spring really does start to our Sw a few weeks earlier. 
wasted cold this week, I would happily take some spring like weather over cold and dry this time of year

Tempwise I remember it was stated that for the coldest 90 day period of the year, it's really the end of the first week of December to the end of the first week of March.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, uncle W said:

if NYC gets no more snow it would be like these winters...

2021-22...17.5"...8.3" biggest storm...

1961-62...18.1"...6.2" biggest storm...

1962-63...16.3"...4.2" biggest storm...

1967-68...19.5"...6.6" biggest storm...

1975-76...17.3"...4.2" biggest storm...

1980-81...19.4"...8.6" biggest storm...

1987-88...19.1"...5.8" biggest storm...

1999-00...16.3"...5.5" biggest storm...

Of all eight winters listed I like 1961-62 the best because its biggest snowfall came Christmas eve...Now if we get more snow before its over throw out this list...I still think NYC ends up with over 20" of snow...

 

fwiw this winter was better than any of those....first of all NYC undermeasured snow this season and secondly most people live near either JFK or LGA and both saw more snow (over 20 inches) and both saw double digits snowstorms as their biggest events.  NYC was the outlier.

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, jm1220 said:

This season is a very sharp reversal of last winter for snow. The bonanza zones in E PA and N NJ are way below average this year and New England way better. Boston taking Central Park to the woodshed with over 50” so far, above normal and Central Park 17.5” which I’d say is well below. Last year both were tied. In many respects this winter is acting more like a typical Nina other than the couple of suppressed systems. The +AO shafted us. 

Forget Boston.... Atlantic City took us to the woodshed!  Chris should list their snowfall amt and averages too.

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, bluewave said:

This year looks like the NYC snowfall totals are accurate. The area around Manhattan, Staten Island, and NE NJ all had similar amounts. A bit of a local snow hole there.

NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	17.5
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	17.4
NJ	TENAFLY 1.3 W	CoCoRaHS	17.4
CT	DARIEN 2.4 NW	CoCoRaHS	17.4
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	17.1
NJ	LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.5 WNW	CoCoRaHS	17.1
NY	SHELTER ISLAND HEIGHTS 2.1 SSW	CoCoRaHS	17.0
CT	HIGGANUM 0.8 NE	CoCoRaHS	16.8
NY	STATEN ISLAND 1.4 SE	CoCoRaHS	16.3
NY	BROOKLYN 3.1 NW	CoCoRaHS	16.3
CT	EAST HAVEN 3.5 SSW	CoCoRaHS	16.2
NJ	FAIR LAWN 1.2 SE	CoCoRaHS	16.1
NJ	NEW PROVIDENCE 0.8 ESE	CoCoRaHS	16.0
NJ	CLARK TWP 1.3 ENE	CoCoRaHS	15.5
NJ	MONTCLAIR 0.7 N	CoCoRaHS	15.4
NJ	OAKLAND 0.9 SSE	CoCoRaHS	15.3

 

LGA and JFK are far more representative of New York City snowfall impacts (and it's where people live).  NYC is representative of office buildings.

Can you post ACY numbers and norms too, Chris? It would be a useful comparison.

[LoboLeader1]

27 here as of 6:30 this AM, after an overnite low of 24. Temps to range in the low to mid 40's today.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Tempwise I remember it was stated that for the coldest 90 day period of the year, it's really the end of the first week of December to the end of the first week of March.

Historically maybe, but I can guarantee the last few years that has begun to change as a function of lack of arctic sea ice. Also, for Long Island even historically. Bluewave could produce the numbers for ISP. 

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

LGA and JFK are far more representative of New York City snowfall impacts (and it's where people live).  NYC is representative of office buildings.

Can you post ACY numbers and norms too, Chris? It would be a useful comparison.

The extreme snowfall departure dipole betweenACY and BGM tells the story of the regional snowfall. It was the 10th snowiest season  in ACY. But BGM was the 2nd least snowiest.Coastal sections right into New England did much better than the interior. 
 

Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1	2010-04-30	58.1	0
2	1967-04-30	46.9	0
3	1996-04-30	46.4	0
4	2014-04-30	43.8	0
5	1979-04-30	43.1	0
6	2003-04-30	42.3	0
7	1964-04-30	38.1	0
8	2011-04-30	38.0	0
9	2018-04-30	34.1	0
10	2022-04-30	33.3	62
-	1987-04-30	33.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for Binghamton Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1	2016-04-30	32.0	0
2	2012-04-30	43.5	0
3	2022-04-30	44.9	61
4	1989-04-30	46.4	0
5	1969-04-30	52.0	0
6	1995-04-30	52.8	0
7	1992-04-30	56.0	0
8	1980-04-30	56.8	0
9	1981-04-30	59.3	0
10	2002-04-30	61.9	0

[CIK62]

February ended at  37.3[+1.4].

Winter ended at +0.9.

The first 8 days of March are averaging  40degs.(34/45) or about Normal.

Reached 40 here yesterday.

Today: 45-48, wind s. to w. to n., cloudy, 39 by tomorrow AM.

First half of March looks boring.

37*(63%RH) here at 6am.{was 34 at midnight}.     45* at 3pm.       47* at 11pm.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be mostly cloudy and mild. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. The temperature will rise into the 50s in southeastern Pennsylvania. Likely high temperatures include:

New York City (Central Park): 46°
Newark: 48°
Philadelphia: 54°

Tomorrow will be another mild day before a fresh shot of cold air arrives.

Normals:
New York City: 30-Year: 45.3°; 15-Year: 45.6°
Newark: 30-Year: 46.3°; 15-Year: 46.8°
Philadelphia: 30-Year: 47.9°; 15-Year: 47.9°

30-Day Verification:

New York City (Central Park):
Average daily forecast: 42.8°
Average temperature: 43.5°
Average error: 2.1°

Newark:
Average daily forecast: 43.4°
Average temperature: 44.0°
Average error: 1.8°

Philadelphia:
Average daily forecast: 47.1°
Average temperature: 47.7°
Average error: 1.4°

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The extreme snowfall departure dipole betweenACY and BGM tells the story of the regional snowfall. It was the 10th snowiest season  in ACY. But BGM was the 2nd least snowiest.Coastal sections right into New England did much better than the interior. 
 

Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1	2010-04-30	58.1	0
2	1967-04-30	46.9	0
3	1996-04-30	46.4	0
4	2014-04-30	43.8	0
5	1979-04-30	43.1	0
6	2003-04-30	42.3	0
7	1964-04-30	38.1	0
8	2011-04-30	38.0	0
9	2018-04-30	34.1	0
10	2022-04-30	33.3	62
-	1987-04-30	33.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for Binghamton Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1	2016-04-30	32.0	0
2	2012-04-30	43.5	0
3	2022-04-30	44.9	61
4	1989-04-30	46.4	0
5	1969-04-30	52.0	0
6	1995-04-30	52.8	0
7	1992-04-30	56.0	0
8	1980-04-30	56.8	0
9	1981-04-30	59.3	0
10	2002-04-30	61.9	0

I'm looking through that ACY list to see which of their top winters had much less snow here and they were all blockbuster snowfall winters for us except for 1979 (because of the original Presidents' Day snowstorm I presume?), 1986-87 (right in the middle of the 80s snow drought, impressive!), and of course this winter.  It's amazing that 1978-79 was even more snowy at ACY than 1977-78 was!  1978-79 stands out as the largest aberration, followed by this winter.

It's also interesting to see 1988-89 on this list for BGM as that also bears similarities to this winter....did ACY also have a lot of snow that year, I remember the big February bust where they got over a foot of snow and we got a foot of virga lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the warm spots may try to make a run on 70° from Sunday into Monday. The early part of the month should be dominated by the -PNA and SE Ridge. But all the ensembles now have a neutral to weak +PNA  weak- AO blocking over the pole in mid-March. So we should see a temperature step down around that time.

 

 

Chris how long should that cold Mid March period last before we get back into a warmer pattern?

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It may take a while if we get an earlier final dynamic warming with more blocking in mid to late March. But it’s a bit early for details beyond mid-March. We may get some hints with the new Euro monthly on March 5th. 
 

 

Do you think this will be a big blow to the warm March forecasts and especially the forecasts that the second half of March would be warmer compared to normal than the first half?

 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s very difficult to guess a monthly departure before we see what the Euro monthly comes up with on the 5th. It has done a good job since November. The only indicator we have now is the November to March patterns have been similar last 10 years. 8 out of the last 10 years featured November and March having similar departures. But during 19-20 and 16-17 there was no relationship. This November had slightly below average temperatures. So it’s still to early to know if the relationship will hold this year.

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Season
2021-2022	46.2	43.8	30.3	37.3	M	39.4
2020-2021	53.0	39.2	34.8	34.2	45.8	41.4
2019-2020	43.9	38.3	39.1	40.1	48.0	41.9
2018-2019	44.4	40.1	32.5	36.2	41.7	39.0
2017-2018	46.6	35.0	31.7	42.0	40.1	39.1
2016-2017	49.8	38.3	38.0	41.6	39.2	41.4
2015-2016	52.8	50.8	34.5	37.7	48.9	44.9
2014-2015	45.3	40.5	29.9	23.9	38.1	35.5
2013-2014	45.3	38.5	28.6	31.6	37.7	36.3
2012-2013	43.9	41.5	35.1	33.9	40.1	38.9
2011-2012	51.9	43.3	37.3	40.9	50.9	44.9

Well thats interesting, do you have a similar chart for November and March departures, Chris?  So both are usually similar and on the same side of 0?  That puts a new wrinkle into things.

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the warm spots may try to make a run on 70° from Sunday into Monday. The early part of the month should be dominated by the -PNA and SE Ridge. But all the ensembles now have a neutral to weak +PNA  weak- AO blocking over the pole in mid-March. So we should see a temperature step down around that time.

 

 

You can set your watch to it, feels like it happens every late March anymore. There are growing signs showing up on guidance that after mid-month, a -AO/-NAO shows up, especially closer to the Equinox (3/20) on the other models. Hopefully that is dead wrong, no one wants to be backdoored with chilly, rainy crap weather at the end of March going into April 

[the_other_guy]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You can set your watch to it, feels like it happens every late March anymore. There are growing signs showing up on guidance that after mid-month, a -AO/-NAO shows up, especially closer to the Equinox (3/20) on the other models. Hopefully that is dead wrong, no one wants to be backdoored with chilly, rainy crap weather at the end of March going into April 

I actually kind of like it.

We have been bombarded with humidity, heat, and endless bugs from late June through October. 

Frankly, I find our new endless summer climate disgusting.

I rather enjoy the cool springs.

But this is all opinion and conjecture, and one should never assume that there is a universal opinion on these things.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

You can set your watch to it, feels like it happens every late March anymore. There are growing signs showing up on guidance that after mid-month, a -AO/-NAO shows up, especially closer to the Equinox (3/20) on the other models. Hopefully that is dead wrong, no one wants to be backdoored with chilly, rainy crap weather at the end of March going into April 

No reason that cant be snow though....after April 10th chances of significant accumulating snow are done

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the November to March departure relationship in NYC has worked for 8 out of the last 10 years. 19-20 and 16-17 were the 2 exceptions so far. 19-20 was the only really warm March to follow a cold November. 
 

NYC

Year….Nov…Mar

20-21…+5.3…+3.3

19-20…-3.8….+5.5

18-19….-3.3….-0.8

17-18….-1.1…..-2.4

16-17….+2.1….-3.3

15-16….+5.1….+6.4

14-15….-2.4…..-4.4

13-14….-2.4…..-4.8

12-13…..-3.8….-2.4

11-12…..+4.2 …+8.4

and last November was around -2 wasn't it?

 

[bluewave]

On 3/1/2022 at 2:11 PM, LibertyBell said:

and last November was around -2 wasn't it?

 

We’ll have a good idea of what the March departure may look like when the Euro monthly is released on the 5th. It has been doing a really good job lately.