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26 minutes ago, uncle W said:

most of the outer boroughs were built up in the early 1920's...We can start with 1930...we would still have the hottest temp on record from 1936 and the coldest temp from 1934...

UHI peaked at Central Park in 1910 before declining and then slowly rising again. 

https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2008/2008_Gaffin_ga00100w.pdf

 

EAE58728-1DEB-454B-8625-E285CE3E1D14.thumb.jpeg.d1c6bd75824c2e537e7c32b4fe581c69.jpeg

 

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7 hours ago, Snowlover11 said:

Hopefully we are done with the 20’s after tonight.  It’s been a brutal 72 hours.  if it isn’t going to snow these sub freezing temps can kindly go. ;)

Yeah time to close the curtain on this. These dewpoints are brutal too..5 degrees or so, air that dry plus allergy season is a brutal assault on the sinus. Even temps in the 40s have alot more chill to it with humidity so low.

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39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

UHI peaked at Central Park in 1910 before declining and then slowly rising again. 

https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2008/2008_Gaffin_ga00100w.pdf

 

EAE58728-1DEB-454B-8625-E285CE3E1D14.thumb.jpeg.d1c6bd75824c2e537e7c32b4fe581c69.jpeg

 

the heat island is much broader today...like the little towns that became big towns or cities the heat islands became connected...the cold air is modified sooner traveling over NE Jersey before hitting NYC...I'm just talking heat island here...

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1 minute ago, uncle W said:

the heat island is much broader today...like the little towns that became big towns or cities the heat islands became connected...the cold air is modified sooner traveling over NE Jersey before hitting NYC...I'm just talking heat island here...

The heat Island around the 5 boroughs and Newark pretty much maxed out by the 1930s and 1940s.The nearby suburbs filled out in the 1951-1980 climate normals period. So the 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 climate normals periods warming were fully a result of the warming climate. 

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In the past 10-20 years there has been a big change in the city skyline with numerous skyscrapers being built not only in Manhattan but especially in western Queens and Brooklyn. Not sure what affect this has in respect to the heat island affect but it makes sense that it must have some affect. Hopefully the greener buildings and materials being used to construct the buildings will minimize the affect on the local climate.

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27 minutes ago, lee59 said:

In the past 10-20 years there has been a big change in the city skyline with numerous skyscrapers being built not only in Manhattan but especially in western Queens and Brooklyn. Not sure what affect this has in respect to the heat island affect but it makes sense that it must have some affect. Hopefully the greener buildings and materials being used to construct the buildings will minimize the affect on the local climate.

The taller buildings actually cool the surrounding areas since they cast very large shadows. 

https://mdpi-res.com/d_attachment/remotesensing/remotesensing-13-03797/article_deploy/remotesensing-13-03797-v2.pdf

5. Discussion
Three factors, trees, building heights, and impervious surfaces, including bright surfaces, are primarily responsible for surface temperature heterogeneity in our study site. The replacement of vegetation by heat-trapping and non-porous urban materials alters surface conditions such as albedo, thermal capacity, and heat conductivity. Such transformation alters radiative fluxes between the surfaces and the lower atmosphere [4].
Trees reduce heat in two ways. Firstly, the shadows resulting from the tree control the total amount of radiation absorbed per unit surface area of heat-trapping materials. Secondly, trees return more surface heat to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration and reduce surface temperatures. Similarly, shadows cast by high-rise buildings reduce the amount of solar energy absorbed by the urban heat-trapping surfaces, and so there will be less heating effect. Guo et al. [14] observed a positive impact of building height and density on land surface temperature. They further observed higher land surface temperature associated with medium building height and a lower building density. Krüger et al. [39] showed a direct link between urban climate and building heights. Similarly, we found a slightly higher surface temperature in medium-height buildings (ranging between 10 and 15 m), but the temperature decreases when the heights increase beyond 15 m together with its variability. This indicates that the relationships between surface temperature and urban structure are more likely associated with urban types. Generally, the shadows cast by tall buildings cover large urban impervious surfaces in the areas having more height variability. In addition, because the Sun is at a lower elevation in September cause longer shadows in comparison with the summer seasons. Likewise, Zheng et al. [40] observed adverse effects of building heights on land surface temperature in residential areas of Beijing. However, the shadow effect on surface temperature varies with the time of the day and the day of the year.
The shadows from high-rise buildings influence temperature, similar to how vegeta- tion affects surface temperature [41]. Mutual shadows created by tall vegetation, such as in forests, eliminate any existing gaps in forests. Even if some gaps exist between high-rise buildings in cities like New York, the mutual shadows cast on the wall of the buildings and the ground reduces heating effects. Additionally, when the height variability increases, the shadows can effectively cover the adjacent building walls up to hundreds of meters away depending on the Sun’s azimuth [42]. Under such conditions, less incident radiation will likely be absorbed on the urban surfaces (horizontal and/or vertical), leading to cooler urban surfaces. Wang and Xu [12] also indicate that land surface temperature decreases significantly with building height differences and brings a cooling effect.
Our results show that surface temperature increases with increasing fractions of imper- vious cover (both impervious-medium and dark surfaces). This indicates that dark urban surfaces, mainly low-rise multi-family walk-up buildings with an average number of floors of 3.15, produce fewer shadows contribute to the urban heat. Surfaces with brighter covers show an increasing surface temperature trend. Usually, bright surfaces increase surface albedo, i.e., reflect more and absorb less solar radiation than other impervious surface materials [43]. It is expected that surface temperature would decrease with bright surface cover due to its high albedo. However, due to its low heat capacity, even the bright impervious surface can heat the surface easily and quickly. Most bright surfaces are rooftops and industrial plants, which are constantly exposed to the Sun. Moreover, the bright surface is surrounded by dark and medium-dark heat-trapping surfaces. The presence of these heat-trapping darker materials may amplify the surface temperature. For the impervious-dark and impervious-medium surfaces and roofs, not much light penetrates the surfaces, incident radiation is not reflected back to the atmosphere is used to heat the surfaces, causing increased surface temperature. Using high spatial resolution satellite data, we characterized the shadows, green vegetation, impervious surfaces, and their brightness and identified each component’s impact on surface temperature in our study site

 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The taller buildings actually cool the surrounding areas since they cast very large shadows. 

https://mdpi-res.com/d_attachment/remotesensing/remotesensing-13-03797/article_deploy/remotesensing-13-03797-v2.pdf

5. Discussion
Three factors, trees, building heights, and impervious surfaces, including bright surfaces, are primarily responsible for surface temperature heterogeneity in our study site. The replacement of vegetation by heat-trapping and non-porous urban materials alters surface conditions such as albedo, thermal capacity, and heat conductivity. Such transformation alters radiative fluxes between the surfaces and the lower atmosphere [4].
Trees reduce heat in two ways. Firstly, the shadows resulting from the tree control the total amount of radiation absorbed per unit surface area of heat-trapping materials. Secondly, trees return more surface heat to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration and reduce surface temperatures. Similarly, shadows cast by high-rise buildings reduce the amount of solar energy absorbed by the urban heat-trapping surfaces, and so there will be less heating effect. Guo et al. [14] observed a positive impact of building height and density on land surface temperature. They further observed higher land surface temperature associated with medium building height and a lower building density. Krüger et al. [39] showed a direct link between urban climate and building heights. Similarly, we found a slightly higher surface temperature in medium-height buildings (ranging between 10 and 15 m), but the temperature decreases when the heights increase beyond 15 m together with its variability. This indicates that the relationships between surface temperature and urban structure are more likely associated with urban types. Generally, the shadows cast by tall buildings cover large urban impervious surfaces in the areas having more height variability. In addition, because the Sun is at a lower elevation in September cause longer shadows in comparison with the summer seasons. Likewise, Zheng et al. [40] observed adverse effects of building heights on land surface temperature in residential areas of Beijing. However, the shadow effect on surface temperature varies with the time of the day and the day of the year.
The shadows from high-rise buildings influence temperature, similar to how vegeta- tion affects surface temperature [41]. Mutual shadows created by tall vegetation, such as in forests, eliminate any existing gaps in forests. Even if some gaps exist between high-rise buildings in cities like New York, the mutual shadows cast on the wall of the buildings and the ground reduces heating effects. Additionally, when the height variability increases, the shadows can effectively cover the adjacent building walls up to hundreds of meters away depending on the Sun’s azimuth [42]. Under such conditions, less incident radiation will likely be absorbed on the urban surfaces (horizontal and/or vertical), leading to cooler urban surfaces. Wang and Xu [12] also indicate that land surface temperature decreases significantly with building height differences and brings a cooling effect.
Our results show that surface temperature increases with increasing fractions of imper- vious cover (both impervious-medium and dark surfaces). This indicates that dark urban surfaces, mainly low-rise multi-family walk-up buildings with an average number of floors of 3.15, produce fewer shadows contribute to the urban heat. Surfaces with brighter covers show an increasing surface temperature trend. Usually, bright surfaces increase surface albedo, i.e., reflect more and absorb less solar radiation than other impervious surface materials [43]. It is expected that surface temperature would decrease with bright surface cover due to its high albedo. However, due to its low heat capacity, even the bright impervious surface can heat the surface easily and quickly. Most bright surfaces are rooftops and industrial plants, which are constantly exposed to the Sun. Moreover, the bright surface is surrounded by dark and medium-dark heat-trapping surfaces. The presence of these heat-trapping darker materials may amplify the surface temperature. For the impervious-dark and impervious-medium surfaces and roofs, not much light penetrates the surfaces, incident radiation is not reflected back to the atmosphere is used to heat the surfaces, causing increased surface temperature. Using high spatial resolution satellite data, we characterized the shadows, green vegetation, impervious surfaces, and their brightness and identified each component’s impact on surface temperature in our study site

 

taller buildings will cast a longer shadow but needs to be heated in the winter and cooled in Summer...they add to the heat both ways...

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40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The taller buildings actually cool the surrounding areas since they cast very large shadows. 

https://mdpi-res.com/d_attachment/remotesensing/remotesensing-13-03797/article_deploy/remotesensing-13-03797-v2.pdf

5. Discussion
Three factors, trees, building heights, and impervious surfaces, including bright surfaces, are primarily responsible for surface temperature heterogeneity in our study site. The replacement of vegetation by heat-trapping and non-porous urban materials alters surface conditions such as albedo, thermal capacity, and heat conductivity. Such transformation alters radiative fluxes between the surfaces and the lower atmosphere [4].
Trees reduce heat in two ways. Firstly, the shadows resulting from the tree control the total amount of radiation absorbed per unit surface area of heat-trapping materials. Secondly, trees return more surface heat to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration and reduce surface temperatures. Similarly, shadows cast by high-rise buildings reduce the amount of solar energy absorbed by the urban heat-trapping surfaces, and so there will be less heating effect. Guo et al. [14] observed a positive impact of building height and density on land surface temperature. They further observed higher land surface temperature associated with medium building height and a lower building density. Krüger et al. [39] showed a direct link between urban climate and building heights. Similarly, we found a slightly higher surface temperature in medium-height buildings (ranging between 10 and 15 m), but the temperature decreases when the heights increase beyond 15 m together with its variability. This indicates that the relationships between surface temperature and urban structure are more likely associated with urban types. Generally, the shadows cast by tall buildings cover large urban impervious surfaces in the areas having more height variability. In addition, because the Sun is at a lower elevation in September cause longer shadows in comparison with the summer seasons. Likewise, Zheng et al. [40] observed adverse effects of building heights on land surface temperature in residential areas of Beijing. However, the shadow effect on surface temperature varies with the time of the day and the day of the year.
The shadows from high-rise buildings influence temperature, similar to how vegeta- tion affects surface temperature [41]. Mutual shadows created by tall vegetation, such as in forests, eliminate any existing gaps in forests. Even if some gaps exist between high-rise buildings in cities like New York, the mutual shadows cast on the wall of the buildings and the ground reduces heating effects. Additionally, when the height variability increases, the shadows can effectively cover the adjacent building walls up to hundreds of meters away depending on the Sun’s azimuth [42]. Under such conditions, less incident radiation will likely be absorbed on the urban surfaces (horizontal and/or vertical), leading to cooler urban surfaces. Wang and Xu [12] also indicate that land surface temperature decreases significantly with building height differences and brings a cooling effect.
Our results show that surface temperature increases with increasing fractions of imper- vious cover (both impervious-medium and dark surfaces). This indicates that dark urban surfaces, mainly low-rise multi-family walk-up buildings with an average number of floors of 3.15, produce fewer shadows contribute to the urban heat. Surfaces with brighter covers show an increasing surface temperature trend. Usually, bright surfaces increase surface albedo, i.e., reflect more and absorb less solar radiation than other impervious surface materials [43]. It is expected that surface temperature would decrease with bright surface cover due to its high albedo. However, due to its low heat capacity, even the bright impervious surface can heat the surface easily and quickly. Most bright surfaces are rooftops and industrial plants, which are constantly exposed to the Sun. Moreover, the bright surface is surrounded by dark and medium-dark heat-trapping surfaces. The presence of these heat-trapping darker materials may amplify the surface temperature. For the impervious-dark and impervious-medium surfaces and roofs, not much light penetrates the surfaces, incident radiation is not reflected back to the atmosphere is used to heat the surfaces, causing increased surface temperature. Using high spatial resolution satellite data, we characterized the shadows, green vegetation, impervious surfaces, and their brightness and identified each component’s impact on surface temperature in our study site

 

Good evening BW. I surface sampled articles on UHI effect. One mentioned the effect of the density/height of buildings affecting air flow and temperature. We definitely have a skyscraper skyline in Brooklyn now. The airflow around large buildings , in my experience, led to a wind tunnel effect. With this topic there is a lot to sample and absorb. My personal, reflecting rather than absorbing, albedo effect is too efficient. Regarding heat waves and resulting fatalities; I look forward to the temperature mapping that is being developed for UHI effected urban areas. A warning of literally what blocks the most dangerous temperatures may occur could save some lives. Stay well. As always ….

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1 hour ago, rclab said:

Good evening BW. I surface sampled articles on UHI effect. One mentioned the effect of the density/height of buildings affecting air flow and temperature. We definitely have a skyscraper skyline in Brooklyn now. The airflow around large buildings , in my experience, led to a wind tunnel effect. With this topic there is a lot to sample and absorb. My personal, reflecting rather than absorbing, albedo effect is too efficient. Regarding heat waves and resulting fatalities; I look forward to the temperature mapping that is being developed for UHI effected urban areas. A warning of literally what blocks the most dangerous temperatures may occur could save some lives. Stay well. As always ….

It would be great if the future ECMWF and HRRR model upgrades can increase resolution enough for exact wind gusts around NYC buildings.;)

 

 

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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

 

I have seen the sun reflect off a house window and warp the siding on the house next door. The heat island affect from NYC is so strong that the temperature reading in Central Park, which is not near the high rises, still is affected on calm nights to be some 10 degrees warmer than suburbs.

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Tomorrow will be warm with highs well into the 60s despite some rain, showers, and perhaps thunderstorms. It will turn somewhat cooler for the weekend.

Today may well have been the last time this year the temperature fell below 30° in New York City until next winter. The mean last dates for readings below 30° are:

New York City: March 22 (1981-10: March 24)
Philadelphia: March 22 (1981-10: March 25)

Last year, both cities saw the temperature fall into the 20s for their last time on April 2.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April.

The SOI was +1.00 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.355 today.

On March 28 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.596 (RMM). The March 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.308 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.2° (2.4° above normal).

 

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17 hours ago, bluewave said:

April 1982 was the latest 21° low and 30° low max on record for NYC. It was a 100 year event for the colder climate of that time. So in our warmer climate, we haven’t seen anything close to that type of April blizzard or cold. The latest highs in the 30s was 4-29-1874.

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Season Length
1982 04-07 (1982) 21 12-09 (1982) 19 245
1881 04-05 (1881) 21 12-11 (1881) 20 249
1874 04-05 (1874) 20 12-14 (1874) 16 252
1923 04-01 (1923) 12 01-02 (1924) 20 275
1915 03-30 (1915) 21 12-11 (1915) 21 255


 

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
1982 04-07 (1982) 30 12-13 (1982) 24 249
1881 04-05 (1881) 30 11-25 (1881) 30 233
1887 03-29 (1887) 29 12-01 (1887) 23 246
1894 03-27 (1894) 30 12-28 (1894) 17 275
1878 03-25 (1878) 30 12-24 (1878) 22 273


 

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
1874 04-29 (1874) 38 11-13 (1874) 36 197
1904 04-20 (1904) 37 11-17 (1904) 38 210
1887 04-18 (1887) 38 11-11 (1887) 39 206
1875 04-18 (1875) 32 11-04 (1875) 39 199
1872 04-16 (1872) 39 11-21 (1872) 37 218
1940 04-13 (1940) 35 11-26 (1940) 35 226
1918 04-12 (1918) 35 11-26 (1918) 39 227
1894 04-11 (1894) 39 11-09 (1894) 37 211
1882 04-11 (1882) 38 11-18 (1882) 34 220
1942 04-10 (1942) 37 11-14 (1942) 32 217
1909 04-10 (1909) 39 11-25 (1909) 39 228
1900 04-10 (1900) 39 11-16 (1900) 39 219
2003 04-09 (2003) 39 12-02 (2003) 36 236
1982 04-09 (1982) 39 12-10 (1982) 35 244

Chris it didn't happen in April 1996 on the 9th ?

 

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16 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, there was a rapid cooling of the North Atlantic during the 1970s. They are still not sure what caused it. So we had all those record cold winters in the late 1970s and early 1980s. 1982 and 1985 were the last 2 times that Newark almost made it down to -10°.

An Anatomy of the Cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean in the 1960s and 1970s

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/27/21/jcli-d-14-00301.1.xml


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1934 -14 0
2 1985 -8 0
- 1933 -8 0
3 1982 -7 0
- 1943 -7 0
4 1936 -4 0
- 1935 -4 0
5 1994 -2 0
- 1977 -2 0
- 1963 -2 0
- 1961 -2 0
6 1984 -1 0
- 1981 -1 0
- 1980 -1 0
- 1979 -1 0
- 1976 -1 0
- 1942 -1 0
7 2016 0 0

But then why did we lack snow during the 70s and 80s aside from 1977-78?  Also how does Newark get close to -10, being an airport, while Central Park hasn't gotten below -2 since the 1940s?

 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly cloudy and warm. Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are likely, especially this afternoon and evening. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 64°

Newark: 68°

Philadelphia: 70°

Somewhat cooler air will return tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 55.3°; 15-Year: 55.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 56.2°; 15-Year: 57.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 58.4°; 15-Year: 59.1°

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The last day of March is averaging  52degs.(42/62) or +6.

Month to date is  45.0[+2.3].      March will end at  45.2[+2.4].

Reached 44* here yesterday.

Today: 55-60, wind s. to w. and breezy PM, rain after 3pm, {OFFICIALLY-Slight Severe} 51 tomorrow AM.

First 10 days of April  41/54 = 48 or near Normal, and Wet.

AMJ = 2:1 In Favor of AN.

JJA = 3:1  In Favor of AN.

AN Wins in a Landslide.

Dewey Wins.......hee, hee, hee.

47*(98%RH) here at 7am{44 at midnight}FOG<0.5mi.    50* at 9am, fog lifted.      56* at 10am.       58* at 10:30am.      57* at 11am.      55* at Noon.      52* at 1pm.       51* at 1:15pm.       55* at 3pm.      57* at 6pm.        63* at 10pm.

 

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This March may be the first time that an Arctic outbreak near the end of the month took NYC out of contention for a top 10 warmest month. 

9th warmest through the 25th

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 25
Missing Count
1 2012-03-25 51.9 0
2 2010-03-25 49.0 0
3 2016-03-25 48.5 0
4 1921-03-25 48.3 0
5 1903-03-25 48.2 0
6 1945-03-25 47.8 0
7 2020-03-25 47.7 0
8 1946-03-25 47.6 0
9 2022-03-25 46.7 0
10 2000-03-25 46.2 0
- 1979-03-25 46.2 0


Currently 17th warmest through the 30th
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1945 51.1 0
2 2012 50.9 0
3 1946 49.8 0
4 2016 48.9 0
5 1921 48.4 0
6 2010 48.2 0
- 1903 48.2 0
7 2020 48.0 0
8 2000 47.2 0
9 1979 46.9 0
10 1977 46.7 0
11 1973 46.4 0
12 1898 46.1 0
13 2021 45.8 0
- 1985 45.8 0
14 1998 45.4 0
15 1936 45.2 0
16 1990 45.1 0
- 1987 45.1 0
- 1986 45.1 0
- 1929 45.1 0
17 2022 45.0 1
- 1995 45.0 0

 

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11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But then why did we lack snow during the 70s and 80s aside from 1977-78?  Also how does Newark get close to -10, being an airport, while Central Park hasn't gotten below -2 since the 1940s?

 

Those 1982 to 1994 Arctic outbreaks were focused south and west of NYC. The airports in DC and Philly also made it to -5 or colder. So there was a very sharp temperature gradient near the Hudson River. 

 

Time Series Summary for WASHINGTON REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT, VA - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1982 -5 0
2 1994 -4 0
- 1985 -4 0



 

Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1984 -7 0
- 1982 -7 0
3 1985 -6 0
4 1994 -5 0


 

Time Series Summary for ALLENTOWN LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, PA - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1994 -15 0
2 1961 -12 0
3 1984 -11 0
- 1942 -11 0
4 1954 -10 1
5 1985 -9 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1934 -14 0
2 1985 -8 0
- 1933 -8 0
4 1982 -7 0
- 1943 -7 0
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