March 2022

[forkyfork]

sun angle season

 

[MJO812]

Getting dark here

[Brian5671]

Flurries here.  27

[coastalplainsnowman]

23 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

sun angle season

 

Underrated post.  This is freaking cool.

[jm1220]

27 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

sun angle season

 

Hysterical. I know exactly where that is too on campus, went to school there 2005-09. It’s downright nasty there this afternoon with the snow squalls, 30mph gusts and temps not budging out of the low 20s. 

[CIK62]

Snow showers here and back to 28 from 32, shortly after 3pm:

[bluewave]

The latest EPS says it will take time for the blocking pattern to relax. Has a brief warm up with severe thunderstorm potential this Thursday. Then below normal temperatures and blocking continues into April. Getting some hints that that a warmer SE Ridge pattern returns  around April 12th
 

March 28th to April 4th

 

April 4th to 11th

 

Warmer SE Ridge pattern returns for the 12th

 

 

 

[forkyfork]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The latest EPS say it will take time for the blocking pattern to relax. Has a brief warm up with severe thunderstorm potential this Thursday. Then below normal temperatures and blocking continues into April. Getting some hints that that a warmer SE Ridge pattern returns  around April 12th

March 28th to April 4th

April 4th to 11th

Warmer SE Ridge pattern returns for the 12th

 

these blocks usually break down with a significant storm for us

[Rtd208]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The latest EPS say it will take time for the blocking pattern to relax. Has a brief warm up with severe thunderstorm potential this Thursday. Then below normal temperatures and blocking continues into April. Getting some hints that that a warmer SE Ridge pattern returns  around April 12th
 

March 28th to April 4th

 

April 4th to 11th

 

Warmer SE Ridge pattern returns for the 12th

 

 

 

Lets get the warmer temps in here. I will be ready for winter again by October. 

[donsutherland1]

An Arctic air mass seemingly turned the calendar back several pages to January. Under bright sunshine coupled with some clouds and a few passing flurries, the mercury rose into the lower and middle 30s across the region.

At New York City, the high was 33°, which was the coldest high temperature this late in the season since April 7, 1982 when the high was 30°. At Newark, the high of 35° was the coldest high since April 7, 1982 when the high was 30°. At Philadelphia, the high of 36° was the coldest high since April 7, 1982 when the temperature also topped out at 36°.

Record low maximum temperatures were set or tied at locations including:

Allentown: 31° (old record: 37°, 1959, 1966, and 1996)
Binghamton: 18° (old record: 23°, 1966)
Boston: 33° (tied record set in 1893)
Bridgeport: 32° (old record: 35°, 1959 and 1966)
Hartford: 31° (old record: 34°, 1923, 1926, 1937, 1959, and 1966)
Islip: 33° (old record: 35°, 1966)
Mount Pocono, PA: 21° (old record: 24°, 1937)
New York City-JFK: 34° (old record: 37°, 1959)
New York City-LGA: 32° (old record: 36°, 1966)
New York City-NYC: 33° (old record: 34°, 1893)
Newark: 35° (tied record set in 1937)
Poughkeepsie: 31° (old record: 35°, 1939 and 1959)
Providence: 34° (tied record set in 1926)
Scranton: 27° (old record: 28°, 1937)
Worcester: 27° (old record: 28°, 1966)

At Binghamton, the 18° high was the lowest maximum temperature on record this late in the season. The old record was 21°, which was set on April 4, 1975 and tied on April 7, 1982. The previous latest high temperature below 20° occurred on March 22, 1959 when the high was 19°. The previous latest 18° high temperature occurred on March 21, 1988 when the temperature reached 18°.

Tomorrow will again start with low temperatures in the lower and middle 20s in New York City and Philadelphia with teens in some areas outside the cities. The afternoon will turn milder as the thermometer pushes into the 40s.

The mean last dates for readings below 30° are:

New York City: March 22 (1981-10: March 24)
Philadelphia: March 22 (1981-10: March 25)

Last year, both cities saw the temperature fall into the 20s for their last time on April 2.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April.

The SOI was +6.70 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.912 today.

On March 26 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.111 (RMM). The March 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.635 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.2° (2.4° above normal).

 

[LoboLeader1]

28 for a high this afternoon. Currently 26, feels more like 13 with the wind.

[LoboLeader1]

 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

these blocks usually break down with a significant storm for us

The storm with the severe potential on Thursday may have near record low pressure for March in parts of Wisconsin and Michigan.
 

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

After a very cold start, it will be partly sunny and somewhat milder. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 40s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 41°

Newark: 42°

Philadelphia: 45°

The warmup will continue through Thursday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 54.5°; 15-Year: 55.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 55.4°; 15-Year: 56.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 57.6°; 15-Year: 58.3°

[CIK62]

The last 3 days of March are averaging  41degs.(32/49) or -5.

Month to date is  45.7[+3.3].         March should end at  45.3[+2.5].

Reached only 32 here yesterday.

Today: 39-42, wind nw. and breezy till evening, clearing late PM, about 30 tomorrow AM.

25*(51%RH) here at 6am.{was 24* overnight}.        32* at Noon.      35* at 1pm.       Reached 39* at 6pm.      36* at 8pm.

[LoboLeader1]

29 for a high yesterday, overnite low was 22. Currently 23F as of 6:45 this AM.

[bluewave]

Yesterday was the 2nd latest date at LGA that the high didn’t get over freezing.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
730 PM EDT TUE MAR 28 2022

...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT LAGUARDIA NY...

A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 32 WAS SET AT LAGUARDIA NY 
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 36 SET IN 1966.

 

3/25	32 in 1940	34 in 1974	34 in 1956
3/26	34 in 1947	35 in 2014	36 in 1971
3/27	36 in 1955	39 in 1982	39 in 1975+
3/28	32 in 2022	36 in 1966	38 in 1959
3/29	34 in 1974	35 in 1984	40 in 1965+
3/30	34 in 1970	39 in 1941	40 in 1990+
3/31	36 in 1970	36 in 1969	37 in 1964
4/1	42 in 2001	43 in 1964	44 in 2011+
4/2	39 in 2021	40 in 1993	43 in 2018
4/3	39 in 1978	43 in 1962	43 in 1943
4/4	36 in 1975	41 in 1972	42 in 1944
4/5	38 in 1995	39 in 1944	41 in 1975
4/6	40 in 1982	41 in 1975	42 in 1971+
4/7	30 in 1982	37 in 2003	39 in 1967
4/8	38 in 2003	39 in 1972	39 in 1956

[MJO812]

Crappy weather pattern going forward

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Crappy weather pattern going forward

Can’t get any worse then this morning. Dead flowers everywhere. And not even a dusting.

I did notice driving in this morning that the cross island was buried in salt just north of the lie. I’m talking insane amounts of salt. That’s great for the environment…..

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Can’t get any worse then this morning. Dead flowers everywhere. And not even a dusting.

I did notice driving in this morning that the cross island was buried in salt just north of the lie. I’m talking insane amounts of salt. That’s great for the environment…..

almost like the towns/cities want to get rid of it all.

[jm1220]

30 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Can’t get any worse then this morning. Dead flowers everywhere. And not even a dusting.

I did notice driving in this morning that the cross island was buried in salt just north of the lie. I’m talking insane amounts of salt. That’s great for the environment…..

Not sure what the reason is for the constant blocking patterns late in March and into spring the last several seasons but hopefully we can get it to end and have the blocking a month earlier when it can be useful for snow. Amazing how constant these patterns are every year along with the seeming perma-Nina. 

[nyrangers1022]

50 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Crappy weather pattern going forward

You wanted cool weather, you got it

[Volcanic Winter]

I’ll take it. Beautiful crisp air. Makes me feel refreshed and awake.  
 

Don’t worry guys, I lose by default. It’ll be hot and humid here before you know it. These types of events are transient and rare for us anymore. 
 

What does seem to be increasing is our prevalence for tornadoes; how about that Mullica Hills EF3 last September? Never thought I’d see what appeared to be a Deep South multivortex dirty wedge in NJ 

[Juliancolton]

17 for a low here, currently 25. At least it's finally sunny enough to put all my seedlings back in their cold frame for the day. They were starting to get leggy under grow lights inside.

[bluewave]

If the NYC  -18.6 departure can hold through next fall and early winter, then it will be the 3rd year in a row with the coldest daily temperature departure occurring in the spring. The coldest annual departure normally happens during the winter. So this could be a first for 3 consecutive years in the spring if it holds. 
 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Avg Temperature Departure
2022-03-28	-18.6
2022-01-15	-17.9
2022-01-21	-15.1

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Avg Temperature Departure
2021-05-30	-18.0
2021-05-29	-17.7
2021-04-02	-14.9

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Avg Temperature Departure
2020-05-09	-20.4
2020-05-08	-14.6
2020-11-18	-14.2

[Volcanic Winter]

Fascinating Bluewave. Thank you. 

[winterwx21]

The weather pattern the next couple weeks certainly isn't beautiful with the cool weather, but at least we're done with the cold weather after the current cold blast passes tomorrow. The cooldowns will still have high temps in the 50s, so at least it's decent spring weather even though not as warm as we'd like.

 

Really a sad scene out there now though with the dead flowers. When you look up at the magnolia trees, it looks as if you're looking at brown leaves in the fall. Really a shame that this extreme arctic blast happened to ruin some of these spring flowers.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Not sure what the reason is for the constant blocking patterns late in March and into spring the last several seasons but hopefully we can get it to end and have the blocking a month earlier when it can be useful for snow. Amazing how constant these patterns are every year along with the seeming perma-Nina. 

We had alot of blocking in January 2021

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Fascinating Bluewave. Thank you. 

Sure. It must be related to our rapidly warming winters. There were only 3 years between 1950 and 1990 with the coldest NYC annual daily temperature departure occurring in the MAM spring period. But there have been 7 years since 1993. Most of the time the coldest departure happens during the winter. These spring blocking patterns in recent years are also contributing. So while spring has been warming along with winter, the winter warming rate is higher. Plus the February 21 to March 20 high temperature has been rising rapidly since 1991 while the low between March 21 and April 20 has been slowly declining. So a pattern that supports early blooms and the potential to still get hard freezes. This hard freeze happened following a top 10 warmest March 1 to 27. 

All years in NYC with coldest annual temperature departure occurring during the spring since 1950

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Avg Temperature Departure
2022-03-28	-18.6
2022-01-15	-17.9
2022-01-21	-15.1

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Avg Temperature Departure
2021-05-30	-18.0
2021-05-29	-17.7
2021-04-02	-14.9

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Avg Temperature Departure
2020-05-09	-20.4
2020-05-08	-14.6
2020-11-18	-14.2

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Avg Temperature Departure
2007-03-06	-24.0
2007-03-07	-22.7
2007-02-05	-21.2

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Avg Temperature Departure
2002-03-22	-17.0
2002-12-09	-16.4
2002-12-04	-16.3

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Avg Temperature Departure
1998-03-12	-16.5
1998-03-11	-14.7
1998-12-31	-14.4

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Avg Temperature Departure
1993-03-18	-22.2
1993-12-27	-21.2
1993-03-19	-19.0

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Avg Temperature Departure
1978-03-05	-18.7
1978-02-04	-18.5
1978-02-05	-18.2

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Avg Temperature Departure
1967-03-18	-28.2
1967-03-19	-25.5
1967-03-17	-23.4

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Avg Temperature Departure
1956-03-25	-19.5
1956-03-19	-19.0
1956-07-06	-18.1
1956-03-18	-17.7

[forkyfork]

thankfully it's only exotic trees that are suffering. the native trees haven't flowered yet