Brian5671 Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 2018 would be awesome-- snow in April is always memorable! Unlikely-that came at the end of a cold snowy pattern with epic blocking-we are not in that at all obviously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: what was the August we had the big regional blackout? was that 2003 or 2004? Hottest day of the year-- the high was 95 or 96. actually the temp i think was only in the upper 80's in nyc but it was not oppresively humid.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 It will be interesting to see if the La Niña continues to get stronger in April. The blocking pattern to end March and start April matches the La Niña composites. It’s one of the few times of the year when a La Niña can be colder than average here. So we’ll get near record Arctic cold here early next week. While the Arctic air quickly moderates to start April, the EPS still has a trough near the Northeast. The La Niña composite for April has a cooler Northeast trough. So we’ll have to wait and see if the EPS continues the cooler than a average temperature beyond the start of April. Near record Arctic cold early next week Top 10 warmest March through the 25th fits the warming background pattern and La Niña. April La Niña composite is cooler….How long will the pattern last? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to see if the La Niña continues to get stronger in April. The blocking pattern to end March and start April matches the La Niña composites. It’s one of the few times of the year when a La Niña can be colder than average here. So we’ll get near record Arctic cold here early next week. While the Arctic air quickly moderates to start April, the EPS still has a trough near the Northeast. The La Niña composite for April has a cooler Northeast trough. So we’ll have to wait and see if the EPS continues the cooler than a average temperature beyond the start of April. Near record Arctic cold early next week Top 10 warmest March through the 25th fits the warming background pattern and La Niña. April La Niña composite is cooler….How long will the pattern last? The projected Niña strengthening being forecasted by the models looks credible given the atmospheric and oceanic states. It’s starting to look it a very real possibility that we see a La Niña for the 3rd winter in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to see if the La Niña continues to get stronger in April. The blocking pattern to end March and start April matches the La Niña composites. It’s one of the few times of the year when a La Niña can be colder than average here. So we’ll get near record Arctic cold here early next week. While the Arctic air quickly moderates to start April, the EPS still has a trough near the Northeast. The La Niña composite for April has a cooler Northeast trough. So we’ll have to wait and see if the EPS continues the cooler than a average temperature beyond the start of April. Near record Arctic cold early next week Top 10 warmest March through the 25th fits the warming background pattern and La Niña. April La Niña composite is cooler….How long will the pattern last? we've also had some incredibly cold weather during la ninas- winters of 1915-16 and 2010-11 come to mind, but they usually come after el ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to see if the La Niña continues to get stronger in April. The blocking pattern to end March and start April matches the La Niña composites. It’s one of the few times of the year when a La Niña can be colder than average here. So we’ll get near record Arctic cold here early next week. While the Arctic air quickly moderates to start April, the EPS still has a trough near the Northeast. The La Niña composite for April has a cooler Northeast trough. So we’ll have to wait and see if the EPS continues the cooler than a average temperature beyond the start of April. Near record Arctic cold early next week Top 10 warmest March through the 25th fits the warming background pattern and La Niña. April La Niña composite is cooler….How long will the pattern last? it's not putting a dent in global temps, which are still going up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 I'm jealous of the lake region More snow for them on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: it's not putting a dent in global temps, which are still going up. But we need an El Niño for a new record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 ninos jump us to a new baseline while the ninas hold us in a steady state 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 the temperature forecast for Newark NJ is 22 Monday and Tue mornings...only 1982 got colder than 22 degrees after March 27th...... date............minimum 4/07/1982.....16 4/06/1982.....17 3/28/1982.....19 3/31/1964.....22 3/30/1970.....22 3/28/1966.....22 4/08/1982.....23 4/05/1982.....23 4/05/1995.....23 4/04/1954.....23 3/29/1959.....23 3/28/1975.....23 4/03/1954.....24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm jealous of the lake region More snow for them on the way They've mostly had a lousy to awful snow season. Syracuse has about half its yearly average. Buffalo is about average, Rochester is below average. Not that unusual for them to still be getting snow in late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The projected Niña strengthening being forecasted by the models looks credible given the atmospheric and oceanic states. It’s starting to look it a very real possibility that we see a La Niña for the 3rd winter in a row It will be interesting to see if we get our 8th warmer than average winter in a row for 22-23. 10-11 was our last cold La Niña winter. Most of them have been warmer than average. Warmer La Niña winters since 95-96 98-99 99-00 05-06 07-08 11-12 16-17 17-18 20-21 21-22 Colder than average La Ninas 95-96 00-01 08-09 10-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 38 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm jealous of the lake region More snow for them on the way i rather live on the coast you can get big nor'easters and tropical systems ... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 28 minutes ago, forkyfork said: ninos jump us to a new baseline while the ninas hold us in a steady state We might be in a mini hiatus period especially with a -AMO/PDO. However the next Super Nino could mean we crush likely pumping up to 1.5C+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, nycwinter said: i rather live on the coast you can get big nor'easters and tropical systems ... We are due for a hurricane 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 3 hours ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to see if the La Niña continues to get stronger in April. The blocking pattern to end March and start April matches the La Niña composites. It’s one of the few times of the year when a La Niña can be colder than average here. So we’ll get near record Arctic cold here early next week. While the Arctic air quickly moderates to start April, the EPS still has a trough near the Northeast. The La Niña composite for April has a cooler Northeast trough. So we’ll have to wait and see if the EPS continues the cooler than a average temperature beyond the start of April. Near record Arctic cold early next week Top 10 warmest March through the 25th fits the warming background pattern and La Niña. April La Niña composite is cooler….How long will the pattern last? So far I’m liking our chances for tropical activity later this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 25 minutes ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to see if we get our 8th warmer than average winter in a row for 22-23. 10-11 was our last cold La Niña winter. Most of them have been warmer than average. Warmer La Niña winters since 95-96 98-99 99-00 05-06 07-08 11-12 16-17 17-18 20-21 21-22 Colder than average La Ninas 95-96 00-01 08-09 10-11 more than half had above average snowfall... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: We might be in a mini hiatus period especially with a -AMO/PDO. However the next Super Nino could mean we crush likely pumping up to 1.5C+ there's no consensus that the AMO is even a real thing https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.abc5810 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 The ongoing generally warmer than normal pattern will likely conclude during the weekend. A fairly sharp but short-lived cold shot is likely as a very cold air mass overspreads the region on Sunday. The arrival of the cold air could produce snow flurries and perhaps snow showers in parts of the region. Monday and Tuesday could see low temperatures fall into the 20s in New York City and Philadelphia. The mean last dates for readings below 30° are: New York City: March 22 (1981-10: March 24) Philadelphia: March 22 (1981-10: March 25) Last year, both cities saw the temperature fall into the 20s for their last time on April 2. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, as occurred this year, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal. Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31: Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2° New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2° Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3° Actual data coupled with modeling for the rest of March show that all three cities will wind up with a colder than normal March 22-31 period. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was -1.72 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.635 today. On March 23 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.219 (RMM). The March 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.321 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.7° (2.9° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 4 hours ago, forkyfork said: ninos jump us to a new baseline while the ninas hold us in a steady state does it even matter what kind of el nino it is? would even a weak one create a new baseline? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 4 hours ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to see if we get our 8th warmer than average winter in a row for 22-23. 10-11 was our last cold La Niña winter. Most of them have been warmer than average. Warmer La Niña winters since 95-96 98-99 99-00 05-06 07-08 11-12 16-17 17-18 20-21 21-22 Colder than average La Ninas 95-96 00-01 08-09 10-11 its good to see that the number of snowy winters is much higher than the number of cold ones. if you go by snowy winters (30"+ seasonal snowfall, you get 7 snowy vs 6 nonsnowy.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 4 hours ago, uncle W said: the temperature forecast for Newark NJ is 22 Monday and Tue mornings...only 1982 got colder than 22 degrees after March 27th...... date............minimum 4/07/1982.....16 4/06/1982.....17 3/28/1982.....19 3/31/1964.....22 3/30/1970.....22 3/28/1966.....22 4/08/1982.....23 4/05/1982.....23 4/05/1995.....23 4/04/1954.....23 3/29/1959.....23 3/28/1975.....23 4/03/1954.....24 teens in April in 1982 wow did NYC get into the teens too? I dont see why not, since Newark got down to 16 and 17. 23 on 4/5/1995 is pretty cold too, I remember that dry cold shot well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 6 hours ago, snowman19 said: The projected Niña strengthening being forecasted by the models looks credible given the atmospheric and oceanic states. It’s starting to look it a very real possibility that we see a La Niña for the 3rd winter in a row Too early to tell. If we do though, if the polar vortex doesn’t end up stronger than normal the winter should be better. The past couple of la ninas have done a good job cooling off the ocean, leading to a weaker pacific jet. La Niña with blocking is very good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 20’s shan’t be good for the trees that are in bloom here, Magnolias especially don’t appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 Picked up 0.11" of rain for the day. Storm total 1.40" Current temp 52 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 8 hours ago, LibertyBell said: teens in April in 1982 wow did NYC get into the teens too? I dont see why not, since Newark got down to 16 and 17. 23 on 4/5/1995 is pretty cold too, I remember that dry cold shot well. No. NYC had a low of 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 Small hail or graupel possible today with some of the steepest lapse rates we have ever seen here from the surface to 500 mb. Very unusual looking soundings for this part of the country. Could also be some thunder with the stronger cells. Then snow squalls possible with the Arctic front later tomorrow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be variably cloudy with near seasonable temperatures. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 54° Philadelphia: 55° Noticeably colder air will arrive tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 53.3°; 15-Year: 53.9° Newark: 30-Year: 54.2°; 15-Year: 55.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 56.4°; 15-Year: 57.1° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 The last 6 days of March are averaging 39degs.(33/45) or -7. Month to date is 46.7[+4.8]. March should end at 45.2[+2.6]. Reached 48 here yesterday. Today: 50-54, wind w. and breezy, cloudy, drizzle. Some off and on snow in the air from late Sunday PM to Monday PM on the EURO. Here is the strongest 1hr. period. 48*(60%RH) here at 7am. 51* at Noon. 53* at 1pm. 54* at 2pm. Single loud thunder at 2:06pm-not raining or hailing. 55* at 3pm. 45* at 11am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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