Brian5671 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 Just now, dmillz25 said: March 21-22 2018 the city got 8-12” and April 2018 the city got about 6” ok then he's wrong then.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: ok then he's wrong then.... Isn't he always wrong? Gets old, he should move to FL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: March 21-22 2018 the city got 8-12” and April 2018 the city got about 6” @bluewaveHad completely different official numbers for NYC yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 I am not a big fan of using Central Park snowfall measurements later in the season. Many of the events are less than 1” at EWR, LGA, and JFK. Those are the ones that go as trace in NYC. We saw this with the late night snow on 4-15-14. There was no measurement in NYC right after the snow. So only the airports with full time observers recorded the light accumulations. NYC incorrectly went in as a trace. The list below has all the measurable snowfall events at Newark after March 25th since 1996. There were 8 years with measurable snow. Most of the events had a very cold upper low or TPV crossing the Great Lakes. Dates of Newark measurable snowfall after March 25th since 1996. 4-2-18 4-15-14 4-5-06 4-7-03 3-26-01 4-09-00 4-1-97 4-9-96 8 storm composite Data for April 15, 2014 through April 16, 2014Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Snowfall NY CARMEL 4N COOP 2.4 NY BEACON 4.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 1.8 CT DANBURY COOP 1.8 CT BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 1.8 NY SOUTH SALEM 2.1 NW CoCoRaHS 1.1 NY COLD SPRING 8.1 NE CoCoRaHS 1.0 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 1.0 NJ CEDAR GROVE TWP 0.4 W CoCoRaHS 0.7 CT SHELTON 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 0.6 NJ CRANFORD COOP 0.5 NJ HARRISON COOP 0.5 NY MIDDLE VILLAGE 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 0.5 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 0.6 SW CoCoRaHS 0.5 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 0.4 NJ TENAFLY 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 0.4 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 0.3 NJ KEARNY 1.7 NW CoCoRaHS 0.3 NJ NEW PROVIDENCE 0.8 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.3 NJ LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.5 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.3 NY WARWICK 3.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.3 CT PROSPECT 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 0.3 NJ WESTFIELD 0.6 NE CoCoRaHS 0.2 NJ KENILWORTH 0.8 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.2 NJ CEDAR GROVE TWP 0.9 NE CoCoRaHS 0.2 NY RONKONKOMA 1.4 WSW CoCoRaHS 0.2 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 0.2 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 0.2 NJ WEST CALDWELL TWP 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 0.1 NJ SADDLE BROOK TWP 0.6 E CoCoRaHS 0.1 NJ NORTH HALEDON 0.6 N CoCoRaHS 0.1 NJ HAWTHORNE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.1 NY CORNWALL ON HUDSON 0.6 NNW CoCoRaHS 0.1 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 0.1 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 0.1 CT BRIDGEPORT-SUCCESS HILL COOP 0.1 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN T 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 Leaf out looks to be ready to happen any minute now and y'all are talking about snow. Remember 4/1/97? Yeah. Big mess. We can't stop the trees from doing their thing so IMO we should wish this to be a rainstorm because I really don't want another tree to take out the power line to our house again. That was stupid expensive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 I'm not sure the pattern is favorable for snows but I continue to be impressed on the late March cold. Some guidance even shows us dropping into the teens with highs near freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 The Euro now has a torch (70F+) day late next week on the new run. So much for that sustained arctic cold into April. This is probably the beginning of the Euro backing off on the length of the cold shot as we draw closer in time 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The Euro now has a torch (70F+) day late next week on the new run. So much for that sustained arctic cold into April. This is probably the beginning of the Euro backing off on the length of the cold shot as we draw closer in time No models are backing off the cold shot for late Month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 The polar vortex crossing the area from Sunday into Monday may be our best shot at some snow squalls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 1 hour ago, dmillz25 said: March 21-22 2018 the city got 8-12” and April 2018 the city got about 6” Long Beach again immediately on the shore got almost a foot of cement from that. Where I live now (granted a good bit more favored for late season snow) had 18". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The polar vortex crossing the area from Sunday into Monday may be our best shot at some snow squalls. Wow, that's gonna be a kick in the teeth regardless of any snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: No models are backing off the cold shot for late Month. You didn’t read a thing I said, I said the LENGTH!!!!! Either you didn’t read or you need Pearl Vision Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 Bit of a bust on the rain so far. On 880 this morning, Craig Allen said it would start by lunchtime. Haven't seen a drop here yet. Dreary day in any case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 11 minutes ago, matt8204 said: Bit of a bust on the rain so far. On 880 this morning, Craig Allen said it would start by lunchtime. Haven't seen a drop here yet. Dreary day in any case. really? most models didn't have it starting until 7-9pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 34 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The Euro now has a torch (70F+) day late next week on the new run. So much for that sustained arctic cold into April. This is probably the beginning of the Euro backing off on the length of the cold shot as we draw closer in time That's way too early to say. If it showed snow at that range you would rightfully be skeptical. Models are also notoriously too quick to break down blocking. I take any model forecast beyond Day 5 with a grain of salt. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 future cast rainfall totals are coming down only 1.24 for the city now from this storm.. what lee golberg showed.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 It’s not unusual ( reminds me of a song) to have a late season cold snap after a mild winter…1975 had a long cold snap in April… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The Euro now has a torch (70F+) day late next week on the new run. So much for that sustained arctic cold into April. This is probably the beginning of the Euro backing off on the length of the cold shot as we draw closer in time The Euro always had a brief Arctic outbreak from the 27th to the 29th. Then a warm up when the TPV lifts out later next week. It’s followed by a cool down in early April with lingering blocking. So our last best chance for snow this season looks to be around the 27th to 28th with possible snow squalls. The below average temperatures in early April currently don’t look cold enough for snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 41 here as of 5PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 Got raw today once the sun disappeared mid-day around here-has a Novemberish feel out there. 42 degrees currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 16 hours ago, snowman19 said: You repeat the same thing about Sloatsburg over and over. Please get a new routine YOU are calling me repetitious ? Now that is comical in other news raw here and 39 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 6 hours ago, uncle W said: 1967 had wet snow measurable in some places the end of April… some places had a trace in may… Like LGA I think? Anything measurable at any of the city sites in April or May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 3 hours ago, bluewave said: The Euro always had a brief Arctic outbreak from the 27th to the 29th. Then a warm up when the TPV lifts out later next week. It’s followed by a cool down in early April with lingering blocking. So our last best chance for snow this season looks to be around the 27th to 28th with possible snow squalls. The below average temperatures in early April currently don’t look cold enough for snow. too bad, this just sounds like more of the stuff we've been seeing in March with trace amounts of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 4 hours ago, jm1220 said: Long Beach again immediately on the shore got almost a foot of cement from that. Where I live now (granted a good bit more favored for late season snow) had 18". what did Long Beach get in the April storm? I loved that one (no mixing) do you have JFK totals for both storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 5 hours ago, gravitylover said: Leaf out looks to be ready to happen any minute now and y'all are talking about snow. Remember 4/1/97? Yeah. Big mess. We can't stop the trees from doing their thing so IMO we should wish this to be a rainstorm because I really don't want another tree to take out the power line to our house again. That was stupid expensive... That storm was a big bust here, I wonder what happened? More snow to the north and south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 6 hours ago, bluewave said: I am not a big fan of using Central Park snowfall measurements later in the season. Many of the events are less than 1” at EWR, LGA, and JFK. Those are the ones that go as trace in NYC. We saw this with the late night snow on 4-15-14. There was no measurement in NYC right after the snow. So only the airports with full time observers recorded the light accumulations. NYC incorrectly went in as a trace. The list below has all the measurable snowfall events at Newark after March 25th since 1996. There were 8 years with measurable snow. Most of the events had a very cold upper low or TPV crossing the Great Lakes. Dates of Newark measurable snowfall after March 25th since 1996. 4-2-18 4-15-14 4-5-06 4-7-03 3-26-01 4-09-00 4-1-97 4-9-96 8 storm composite Data for April 15, 2014 through April 16, 2014Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Snowfall NY CARMEL 4N COOP 2.4 NY BEACON 4.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 1.8 CT DANBURY COOP 1.8 CT BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 1.8 NY SOUTH SALEM 2.1 NW CoCoRaHS 1.1 NY COLD SPRING 8.1 NE CoCoRaHS 1.0 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 1.0 NJ CEDAR GROVE TWP 0.4 W CoCoRaHS 0.7 CT SHELTON 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 0.6 NJ CRANFORD COOP 0.5 NJ HARRISON COOP 0.5 NY MIDDLE VILLAGE 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 0.5 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 0.6 SW CoCoRaHS 0.5 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 0.4 NJ TENAFLY 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 0.4 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 0.3 NJ KEARNY 1.7 NW CoCoRaHS 0.3 NJ NEW PROVIDENCE 0.8 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.3 NJ LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.5 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.3 NY WARWICK 3.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.3 CT PROSPECT 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 0.3 NJ WESTFIELD 0.6 NE CoCoRaHS 0.2 NJ KENILWORTH 0.8 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.2 NJ CEDAR GROVE TWP 0.9 NE CoCoRaHS 0.2 NY RONKONKOMA 1.4 WSW CoCoRaHS 0.2 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 0.2 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 0.2 NJ WEST CALDWELL TWP 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 0.1 NJ SADDLE BROOK TWP 0.6 E CoCoRaHS 0.1 NJ NORTH HALEDON 0.6 N CoCoRaHS 0.1 NJ HAWTHORNE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.1 NY CORNWALL ON HUDSON 0.6 NNW CoCoRaHS 0.1 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 0.1 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 0.1 CT BRIDGEPORT-SUCCESS HILL COOP 0.1 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN T Thanks Chris, can you get me a similar list of all snowfall events at JFK since March 25th from 1990 onwards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 7 hours ago, snowman19 said: Again……NYC proper, AFTER the EQUINOX (3/20), in the 22 years since 2000, go back and look for yourself By significant you mean 6" correct? April 2003, March 2018 and April 2018 fit that description, but like Chris said, when talking about New York City you have to include all 5 boroughs. JFK had 5" in April 2003 and again in April 2018 and thats close enough to 6" to be considered significant. March 2018 was closer to 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 7 hours ago, snowman19 said: Since January, 2000, after the equinox, NYC has yet a see a significant or even minor snowstorm. That is very telling yeah it's telling about all the concrete and uhi lol. since even the south shore of nassau county has seen multiple 6"+ events in that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 average days with a minimum 32 or lower at Newark since 1955-56 ... decade.....................ave...83.5 2020-21-2021-22...74.5... so far... 2010-11-2019-20...80.3... 2000-01-2009-10...82.3... 1990-91-1999-00...77.1... 1980-81-1989-90...84.0... 1970-71-1979-80...82.8... 1960-61-1969-70...91.7... 1955-56-1959-60...92.2... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with periods of rain. It will turn milder with readings climbing into the 50s. The ongoing generally warmer than normal pattern will likely conclude during the weekend. Nevertheless, this month could rank among the 15 warmest March cases on record in much of the region. There is growing potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings. The possibility of a fairly sharp but short-lived cold shot has increased on the guidance in recent days. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal. Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31: Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2° New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2° Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3° The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +6.84 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.209 today. On March 21 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.646 (RMM). The March 20-adjusted amplitude was 2.170 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.0° (3.2° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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