LibertyBell Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 7 hours ago, CIK62 said: CMC IS THE BIG WINNER THIS RUN WITH SNOW IN THE LAST WEEK OF MARCH.......... GFS is 2" and the EURO is none. It better happen in early April, those are better storms than late March ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Weird not to see 1967 in this list, 1967 was the benchmark for all backend winters (and bookend winters too). The exceptional cold shot occurred a few days earlier than 3/22 in 1967. The temperature fell to 8 on 3/19 in NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will become cloudy today. Showers and periods of rain will develop during the afternoon or evening hours. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 49° Newark: 50° Philadelphia: 56° Showers are likely tomorrow and Thursday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 52.1°; 15-Year: 52.8° Newark: 30-Year: 53.1°; 15-Year: 54.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 55.2°; 15-Year: 55.9° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 42degs.(36/47) or -2. Month to date is 46.8[+5.3]. Should be 45.5[+3.4] by the 31st. Reached 63 here yesterday about 6pm. Today: 48-52, wind e. and breezy, cloudy and rain starting late-in earnest after 9pm. 500mb Heights down to 5270m, or -2.3sd near the 26th, 27th., but bounce back quickly-then negative again on April 1-2. 44*(36%RH) here at 7am{43* at 5am.} 44*-46* during the morning,Noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 41 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 In our warmer climate, models usually back off Arctic outbreaks in the 6-10 day forecast. This time they are actually increasing the cold as we get closer. The polar vortex passes right over the area as the blocking is becoming more intense than earlier forecasts. Models all have lows on the 28th in the 20s and highs only in the 30s. The average split for NYC on 3-28 is 54/39. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: In our warmer climate, models usually back off Arctic outbreaks in the 6-10 day forecast. This time they are actually increasing the cold as we get closer. The polar vortex passes right over the area as the blocking is becoming more intense than earlier forecasts. Models all have lows on the 28th in the 20s and highs only in the 30s. The average split for NYC on 3-28 is 54/39. It's a rare legit cold wave in a sea of warmth. Early blooms likely to be affected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 30 minutes ago, bluewave said: In our warmer climate, models usually back off Arctic outbreaks in the 6-10 day forecast. This time they are actually increasing the cold as we get closer. The polar vortex passes right over the area as the blocking is becoming more intense than earlier forecasts. Models all have lows on the 28th in the 20s and highs only in the 30s. The average split for NYC on 3-28 is 54/39. is this kind of extreme cold now forecast to last into early April, Chris-- could we see lows below freezing in April (and maybe even a chance of snow during the first week of the month)? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 Trash cold pattern. What a miserable time coming up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 12 minutes ago, nyrangers1022 said: Trash cold pattern. What a miserable time coming up It's late March 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's late March Yeah and it's awful being cloudy, rain and 30s, 40s. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: It's a rare legit cold wave in a sea of warmth. Early blooms likely to be affected. Yeah, some early blooms around the area with the 9th warmest March through the 22nd. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 22 Missing Count 1 2012-03-22 51.2 0 2 2010-03-22 48.6 0 3 2020-03-22 48.5 0 4 1921-03-22 48.2 0 5 2016-03-22 47.6 0 6 1903-03-22 47.5 0 7 1946-03-22 47.4 0 8 1945-03-22 47.1 0 9 2022-03-22 46.8 0 10 1990-03-22 46.4 0 - 1977-03-22 46.4 0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 36 minutes ago, nyrangers1022 said: Yeah and it's awful being cloudy, rain and 30s, 40s. We got teased big-time last week. Probably won't be nice again until May. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: It's a rare legit cold wave in a sea of warmth. Early blooms likely to be affected. Yup. I have tons of early flowers in bloom on campus. Most, like daffodils will handle it without being trashed. But our magnolia will loose it’s blooms. I’ll take the loss if we can at least pull a snow event and not waste the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 52 minutes ago, matt8204 said: We got teased big-time last week. Probably won't be nice again until May. Ugh. Just want to be outside in the sun, walking, golfing, etc...way better than looking out the window and hoping for white flakes to fall from the sky 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 26 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Yup. I have tons of early flowers in bloom on campus. Most, like daffodils will handle it without being trashed. But our magnolia will loose it’s blooms. I’ll take the loss if we can at least pull a snow event and not waste the cold I'd rather it be in the first week of April, those are the ones we remember. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: It's late March you like rainy cold weather eh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 if there's one pattern to get a late season event, this would be it: highly anomalous, decaying WB -NAO, 50/50 ULL, and a strong OH Valley trough obviously, climo is unfavorable, but there's the potential for another winter storm if this pattern verifies. if we saw this even a couple of weeks ago we'd be talking KU 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 it felt great outside this morning i got to wear my coat hat and gloves 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: I'd rather it be in the first week of April, those are the ones we remember. My mother still talks about Easter Sunday 1970. Her relatives from the Jersey Shore area had to cancel their plans to travel north for the holiday. Think there was a good 6-8 inches of snow in North Jersey. By the next afternoon, it was gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 Since January, 2000, after the equinox, NYC has yet a see a significant or even minor snowstorm. That is very telling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 23 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Since January, 2000, after the equinox, NYC has yet a see a significant or even minor snowstorm. That is very telling March 2018, April 2018 ? I feel like there is a few more as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: March 2018 ? Again……NYC proper, AFTER the EQUINOX (3/20), in the 22 years since 2000, go back and look for yourself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Again……NYC proper, AFTER the EQUINOX (3/20), in the 22 years since 2000, go back and look for yourself Can’t speak to Central Park but in April 2003 and April 2018 right on the south shore where I lived at the time there was 6” each. It’s rare but doable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Again……NYC proper, AFTER the EQUINOX (3/20), in the 22 years since 2000, go back and look for yourself if you’re talking about after then April 2018 comes to mind for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 8 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Weird not to see 1967 in this list, 1967 was the benchmark for all backend winters (and bookend winters too). 1967 had wet snow measurable in some places the end of April… some places had a trace in may… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Can’t speak to Central Park but in April 2003 and April 2018 right on the south shore where I lived at the time there was 6” each. It’s rare but doable. I had 6” both times on staten island 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 15 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: March 2018, April 2018 ? I feel like there is a few more as well those may not have accumulated in the city proper. Out in the burbs different story-we had 6-8 inches here April 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 April 1971 and wet snow mixed with rain and march 31 1980 too both with temperatures in the mid 30’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: those may not have accumulated in the city proper. Out in the burbs different story-we had 6-8 inches here April 2018 March 21-22 2018 the city got 8-12” and April 2018 the city got about 6” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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