March 2022

[Eduardo]

11 hours ago, nycwinter said:

who wants warmth in march or april.. when you will have it all summer..it keeps the bugs away...the chilly weather...

Nah I kinda disagree.  For me, we've reached the point on the calendar where I just want sunny, warm weather (but am of course already hoping for a Nov 2022–Feb 2023 snowy tundra).

[Volcanic Winter]

Well, in the years to come you’re going to keep getting a heck of a lot more of it as our winters erode bit by bit. 
 

I find it rather difficult to cheer on unseasonable warmth as it more or less continues to herald our new climate realities. 
 

I’ve said it before and at the risk of being a broken record, try to find appreciation for the cold (any cold, even in the spring) while it’s still possible here. We seem to be heading at breakneck speeds toward mild winters and increasingly hot and humid shoulder seasons and summers. 
 

Personally, that doesn’t thrill me but I guess I “get it” in terms of people who prefer warmer climates. But be careful what you wish for, IMO. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Thank God the blocking looks to be very short lived and it warms right back up at the beginning of April

The 0z EPS shifted to more blocking in early April from the warmer look it had a few days ago. The Scandinavian Ridge just set a new record for both March and April. So we may have to be patient for spring to make a return following the colder end of March.

 

 

[uncle W]

1996 had a -4sd ao in early April 1996 before the last snowstorm of the season...500mb mix for the last five times it snowed on March 28th-29th...

year   AO.....NAO.....3/28

1959...1.784...0.251

1970..-0.251..-0.741

1974..-1.281...0.380

1984..-2.024..-1.182

1996..-0.527..-0.250

 

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 0z EPS shifted to more blocking in early April from the warmer look it had a few days ago. The Scandinavian Ridge just set a new record for both March and April. So we may have to be patient for spring to make a return following the colder end of March.

 

 

Looks like a recipe for more Black Sea effect snowfall on the Turkish coast.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 0z EPS shifted to more blocking in early April from the warmer look it had a few days ago. The Scandinavian Ridge just set a new record for both March and April. So we may have to be patient for spring to make a return following the colder end of March.

 

 

Let’s hope the EPS is too aggressive with the blocking just as it was all winter, there was a time when the EPS was showing early to mid-March to be in the freezer. This is the 2nd year in a row that I had to turn my A/C on in March. Needed it in the afternoon both days last week. The only other time I can remember needing A/C in March before last year was 2012….

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Let’s hope the EPS is too aggressive with the blocking just as it was all winter, there was a time when the EPS was showing early to mid-March to be in the freezer. This is the 2nd year in a row that I had to turn my A/C on in March. Needed it in the afternoon both days last week. The only other time I can remember needing A/C in March before last year was 2012….

This looks like one of those rare times when the warmest temperature between March 1st and 20th is higher than March 21st to April 4th. All the guidance shifted to more blocking from late March into early April. So the early spring much above to record warmth pattern will be on hiatus for a while. 
 

EPS

March 21 to 28

 

March 28 to April 4th

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

32 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Let’s hope the EPS is too aggressive with the blocking just as it was all winter, there was a time when the EPS was showing early to mid-March to be in the freezer. This is the 2nd year in a row that I had to turn my A/C on in March. Needed it in the afternoon both days last week. The only other time I can remember needing A/C in March before last year was 2012….

12z EPS continues the strong blocking signal so I think it's legit.

Spring blocking has been a common theme. I don't know how cold it'll get but it will def get unsettled for a time 

[CIK62]

ANOTHER 06Z SPECIAL.    LIKE A RUN LAST WEEK.     ALREADY GONE BY 12Z.

Meanwhile the EURO entering this period(April 2) looks super cold.

[forkyfork]

On 3/20/2022 at 3:06 PM, forkyfork said:

the pattern on the eps is the nyc 15" snowstorm composite. total waste

 

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

 

Yea, that would have definitely been a textbook, honking KU snowstorm signal for sure a month ago….too little, too late now…there’s always next winter….

[gravitylover]

Of course it's gonna get cold again, I took the winter wheels off our cars this morning. I did it for you guys 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and a bit cooler. The middle part of the week will be unsettled and briefly cooler with some rain and showers.  

The ongoing generally warmer than normal pattern that could last into the closing days of March. As a consequence, this month could rank among the 15 warmest March cases on record in much of the region.

There remains some potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal.

Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31:

Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2°
New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2°
Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3°

The longer-range guidance has turned cooler for the close of March. Nevertheless, there remains some uncertainty given both the timeframe involved and the small sample sizes for MJO-ENSO cases.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March.

The SOI was +12.68 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.529 today.

On March 19 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.039 (RMM). The March 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.796 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.5° (3.7° above normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Let’s hope the EPS is too aggressive with the blocking just as it was all winter, there was a time when the EPS was showing early to mid-March to be in the freezer. This is the 2nd year in a row that I had to turn my A/C on in March. Needed it in the afternoon both days last week. The only other time I can remember needing A/C in March before last year was 2012….

a/c with temps in the 70s? It has to be 80 or higher for me to do that

Hasn't even reached 70 here at the coast (except one day when we were close and might have just barely reached it.)

I'm more worried about that huge Joro spider invasion they are talking about.

That might finally motivate me to buy a gun.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

This looks like one of those rare times when the warmest temperature between March 1st and 20th is higher than March 21st to April 4th. All the guidance shifted to more blocking from late March into early April. So the early spring much above to record warmth pattern will be on hiatus for a while. 
 

EPS

March 21 to 28

 

March 28 to April 4th

 

 

 

There's a few years when we've had at least 1" of snow in early April.

Could this be another of those times?

Off the top of my head the years in which we had at least 1" of snow in April at the Park or one of the airports were:

1982, 1983, 1990, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2003, 2006, 2018

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny and cooler today. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower  60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 58°

Newark: 60°

Philadelphia: 62°

Showers are likely tomorrow and Thursday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 51.8°; 15-Year: 52.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 52.7°; 15-Year: 53.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 54.8°; 15-Year: 55.5°

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  44degs.(37/50) or Normal.

Month to date is  46.6[+5.3].        Should be  45.8[+3.8] by the 30th.

Reached 63 here yesterday.

Today:  57-60, wind nw. and breezy early-improving, p. cloudy.

49*(39%RH) here at 7am.      47* at 7:30am.      45* at 9am.     50* at Noon.       Reached 62* at 6pm.

[LoboLeader1]

Overnight low of 40, high yesterday was 59. Currently it's 42 under a clear sky.

[bluewave]

Lows in the 20s and highs in the 30s will feel cold early next week after how warm it has been recently. 

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Lows in the 20s and highs in the 30s will feel cold early next week after how warm it has been recently. 

 

clear skies with this though?

and now you said this cold may extend into the first few days of april too?

do you remember a cold shot in early April 1995 that was like this? clear skies, but temps in the 30s by day and 20s by night?

 

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, uncle W said:

1996 had a -4sd ao in early April 1996 before the last snowstorm of the season...500mb mix for the last five times it snowed on March 28th-29th...

year   AO.....NAO.....3/28

1959...1.784...0.251

1970..-0.251..-0.741

1974..-1.281...0.380

1984..-2.024..-1.182

1996..-0.527..-0.250

 

classic early April snowstorm in 1996 too, I remember the snowy Yankee home opener so well

[SnoSki14]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Lows in the 20s and highs in the 30s will feel cold early next week after how warm it has been recently. 

 

I'd imagine this would have some effects on the early blooms we're experiencing.

Looks like we're a couple weeks ahead of schedule.

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'd imagine this would have some effects on the early blooms we're experiencing.

Looks like we're a couple weeks ahead of schedule.

One of the riddles of our warming climate is that the last spring freeze has remained constant since 1981 while the first 70° day has moved up a month. So we are getting more frequent spring freezes after early blooms. Someone should probably do a study on why the last freeze date hasn’t moved up a month earlier also. Wonder if it’s related to changes in the stratosphere leading to late season blocking intervals?
 

Newark first 70° day of year

1981….March 29th

2021…March 1st

 

 

Newark last freeze 

1981….March 31st

2021….April 2nd

 

 

[uncle W]

monthly snowfall distribution this year was similar to the 1953-54 winter...it was a mild winter also except for January...most of the snow fell in January and it had an 8-10" snowfall...March 31st-April 1st, 1954 had a dusting of snow and record cold after...we might see something similar maybe not as cold...

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Lows in the 20s and highs in the 30s will feel cold early next week after how warm it has been recently. 

 

I'll be surprised if the high temps stay in the 30s, considering how strong the sun is this time of year. Temps usually go a few degrees above what the models show anytime the sun is out. It'll probably make it to the low-mid 40s, but obviously that's still well below normal and an impressive early spring cold shot.

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I'll be surprised if the high temps stay in the 30s, considering how strong the sun is this time of year. Temps usually go a few degrees above what the models show anytime the sun is out. It'll probably make it to the low-mid 40s, but obviously that's still well below normal and an impressive early spring cold shot.

If we can drop below 25° like the models are indicating, then the chances go up for highs staying in the 30s. NYC only made it to 39° last April 2nd. Newark had a record low max of 40° with a record low of 28°. But it’s easier for Newark to set record lows since it isn’t competing with the late 1800s like Central Park.

NYC 

4/2

35 in 1911

36 in 1899

39 in 2021+

EWR

4/2

28 in 2021

28 in 1964

30 in 1954

 

4/2

40 in 2021

43 in 1993

43 in 1965+

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

If we can drop below 25° like the models are indicating, then the chances go up for highs staying in the 30s. NYC only made it to 39° last April 2nd. Newark had a record low max of 40° with a record low of 28°. But it’s easier for Newark to set record lows since it isn’t competing with the late 1800s like Central Park.

NYC 

4/2

35 in 1911

36 in 1899

39 in 2021+

EWR

4/2

28 in 2021

28 in 1964

30 in 1954

 

4/2

40 in 2021

43 in 1993

43 in 1965+

The Atlantic is definitely starting to take on a -AMO look….wonder if this is the beginning of another long term -AMO cycle. If so, we may be seeing a lot more +NAO in the years to come, a la the 1980’s….

 

[brooklynwx99]

[HailMan06]

38 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The Atlantic is definitely starting to take on a -AMO look….wonder if this is the beginning of another long term -AMO cycle. If so, we may be seeing a lot more +NAO in the years to come, a la the 1980’s….

 

Looks like a set up favoring another steamy/wet summer for us.

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, HailMan06 said:

Looks like a set up favoring another steamy/wet summer for us.

Sadly, yes. I have a bad feeling we are going to see a Bermuda High on roids from May - September