March 2022

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, Tatamy said:

Mt. Holly issues a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for parts of eastern and NE PA for the incoming squall line.  If you are in western or NW NJ or adjacent NY keep an eye on this one.

heavy rain in the Poconos for an hour and a half today!

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, SI Mailman said:

Just heard my first rumble of thunder for the season

the first official spring storms of the season

 

[Dan76]

Hail here last night

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 50degs.(42/58) or +6

Month to date is  45.9[+4.9].        Should be 47.1[+5.1] by the 28th.

Reached 60 here yesterday.

Today: 59-62, wind nw. to w. and breezy, p. sunny.

54*(64%RH) at 7am.{was 61 at 2am}.      57* at 10am.       59* at Noon.        58* at 2pm.      54* at 6pm.      49* at 9pm.       48* at 10pm.

[LoboLeader1]

66 here yesterday, currently 51 under a clear sky. Temps to be near 60 today.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

A partly sunny morning will give way to a mainly cloudy afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 60°

Newark: 60°

Philadelphia: 60°

Similar to slightly cooler readings are likely tomorrow and Tuesday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 51.0°; 15-Year: 51.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 52.0°; 15-Year: 53.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 54.1°; 15-Year: 54.7°

[rclab]

49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This will be our most recent version of less warm is the new cool. We just had several days with +10 to +18 departures. So this week will feel cooler with smaller positive departures. 

 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Avg Temperature Departure
2022-03-15	11.4
2022-03-16	14.1
2022-03-17	7.3
2022-03-18	18.0
2022-03-19	15.7

 

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   3/20/2022  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 SUN  20| MON 21| TUE 22| WED 23| THU 24| FRI 25| SAT 26| SUN 27 CLIMO
 X/N  63| 38  60| 42  59| 38  45| 41  65| 48  60| 44  55| 37  47 36 54

Good morning bw. Possibly a good way to slogan/appeal and intro GW to youngsters. ‘It’s not always cool to be warm’. As always ….

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning bw. Possibly a good way to slogan/appeal and intro GW to youngsters. ‘It’s not always cool to be warm’. As always ….

Looks like an active storm pattern to close out the month as closed lows roll underneath the blocking. 

 

[wdrag]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like an active storm pattern to close out the month as closed lows roll underneath the blocking. 

 

I Hope EPS is true -- EPS is our best chance for any late season snow in the interior.  

Unfortunately, 00z/20 GEFS/GEPS not as enthusiastic. They more or less agree for the 23rd-24th, but that is an inside runner, (imo); 26-27 seems like GEPS/GEFS are too little too late and not dragging south and west as per the EPS (attached for  quick view).  Maybe the EPS will work?

I keep looking for a solid sign of late season snow here along I84 but nothing consistent and for me, I might have to live with the 26" (this part of Wantage NJ 8 s of High Point at 740'MSL) seasonal total (to date) which is at least 15" below normal.   

[JustinRP37]

Lots of local ski areas are calling it a season today after the lifts stop spinning. Overall the local ski season got off to a late start and a somewhat earlier ending. The snow was pretty great throughout the season though although there were a couple of slush days, especially this past week. Let’s hope that next fall the cold air can get in here around Thanksgiving to allow for earlier snow making.

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

Lots of local ski areas are calling it a season today after the lifts stop spinning. Overall the local ski season got off to a late start and a somewhat earlier ending. The snow was pretty great throughout the season though although there were a couple of slush days, especially this past week. Let’s hope that next fall the cold air can get in here around Thanksgiving to allow for earlier snow making.

No question Joe Rao's 1990s or thereabouts research on big Dec likely means a snowier than normal winter for NYC - again seems to verify barring a miracle the next 3 weeks. Sighhh, 

[SnoSki14]

Ensembles gradually trending stronger with the blocking so things should get a lot more unsettled. 

Still looks to be on the milder side with some cooler easterly flow days mixed in. 

[forkyfork]

the pattern on the eps is the nyc 15" snowstorm composite. total waste

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the pattern on the eps is the nyc 15" snowstorm composite. total waste

Maybe we can get a huge slow moving rainstorm 

[Rtd208]

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe we can get a huge slow moving rainstorm 

That is probably exactly what we will have for the next few weeks starting late week. Potential for moisture-laden spring storm systems (maybe nor'easters) bringing plenty of wet and stormy weather to the region. It would have been nice if the pattern being shown would have showed up 2-3 months ago but we can't seem to get the timing right. 

[Brian5671]

6 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Lots of local ski areas are calling it a season today after the lifts stop spinning. Overall the local ski season got off to a late start and a somewhat earlier ending. The snow was pretty great throughout the season though although there were a couple of slush days, especially this past week. Let’s hope that next fall the cold air can get in here around Thanksgiving to allow for earlier snow making.

A short year for sure but good conditions Jan/Feb.   

[LoboLeader1]

Topped out at 56 today, currently it's 50 under cloudy skies.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny and mild. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s across much of the region.

A sustained warmer than normal pattern that could last for at least 1-2 weeks into the closing days of March remains underway. As a consequence, this month could rank among the 15 warmest March cases on record in much of the region.

There remains some potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal.

Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31:

Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2°
New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2°
Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3°

The longer-range guidance has turned cooler for the close of March. Nevertheless, there remains some uncertainty given both the timeframe involved and the small sample sizes for MJO-ENSO cases.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around March 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March.

The SOI was +16.32 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.830 today.

On March 18 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.798 (RMM). The March 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.757 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.5° (3.7° above normal).

 

[MJO812]

Feels like autumn

 

48 here in Brooklyn 

[jm1220]

Seems to be like clockwork that we have this garbage big -NAO in late March now that’s only good for locking in raw easterly winds or useless cold. 

[nycwinter]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Seems to be like clockwork that we have this garbage big -NAO in late March now that’s only good for locking in raw easterly winds or useless cold. 

who wants warmth in march or april.. when you will have it all summer..it keeps the bugs away...the chilly weather...

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly sunny and mild. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle  60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 62°

Newark: 64°

Philadelphia: 67°

Somewhat cooler readings are likely tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 51.4°; 15-Year: 52.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 52.4°; 15-Year: 53.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 54.4°; 15-Year: 55.1°

[LoboLeader1]

40 here this AM. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  45degs.(39/50) or +1.

Month to date is  46.3[+5.1].       Should be  46.0[+3.9] by the 29th.

Reached 60 yesterday at midnight, 59* daytime. 

Today: 61-63, wind nw. to w., m. clear.      The week looks cloudy and wet with lowering T's till the weekend at least.

44*(53%RH) here at 7am.       47* at 9am.        50* at Noon.        62* at 4pm.      Reached 63* at 6pm.     58* at 9pm.      53* at 10pm.       50* at 11pm.

[matt8204]

8 hours ago, nycwinter said:

who wants warmth in march or april.. when you will have it all summer..it keeps the bugs away...the chilly weather...

I don't like the bugs either (biggest downside of summer in my view) but once you get a taste of the nice weather like we had on Friday, I'm all in on summery conditions.  I was actually annoyed that I had to put a jacket on this morning.

[ILoveWinter]

29 minutes ago, matt8204 said:

I don't like the bugs either (biggest downside of summer in my view) but once you get a taste of the nice weather like we had on Friday, I'm all in on summery conditions.  I was actually annoyed that I had to put a jacket on this morning.

Yea agree! Those "shock to the system" easterly flow/back doors get progressively more irritating as spring rolls on. It's still mid March so it hasn't driven me crazy just yet, lol.

[uncle W]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if the Euro and GGEM are right about the precipitation ending as snow in about a week. We would need the ending of the storm to coincide with the coldest part of the day. Plus this should be the strongest blocking of the year so far. The maximum snowfall around NYC for the last week of March since 2000 has been mostly a trace. This also looks like it could be the last freeze of the season for places like NYC. So a few days of colder temperatures to close out the month.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Mar 25 to Mar 31	Missing Count
2021-03-31	0.0	0
2020-03-31	0.0	0
2019-03-31	0.0	0
2018-03-31	T	0
2017-03-31	0.0	0
2016-03-31	0.0	0
2015-03-31	T	0
2014-03-31	T	0
2013-03-31	T	0
2012-03-31	0.0	0
2011-03-31	0.0	0
2010-03-31	0.0	0
2009-03-31	0.0	0
2008-03-31	0.0	0
2007-03-31	0.0	0
2006-03-31	0.0	0
2005-03-31	0.0	0
2004-03-31	0.0	0
2003-03-31	T	0
2002-03-31	T	0
2001-03-31	0.2	0
2000-03-31	0.0	0

 

 

a little birthday present for me...March 28-29th 1996 was the last time it snowed on March 28th...1984 and 1959 before that...

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if the Euro and GGEM are right about the precipitation ending as snow in about a week. We would need the ending of the storm to coincide with the coldest part of the day. Plus this should be the strongest blocking of the year so far. The maximum snowfall around NYC for the last week of March since 2000 has been mostly a trace. This also looks like it could be the last freeze of the season for places like NYC. So a few days of colder temperatures to close out the month.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Mar 25 to Mar 31	Missing Count
2021-03-31	0.0	0
2020-03-31	0.0	0
2019-03-31	0.0	0
2018-03-31	T	0
2017-03-31	0.0	0
2016-03-31	0.0	0
2015-03-31	T	0
2014-03-31	T	0
2013-03-31	T	0
2012-03-31	0.0	0
2011-03-31	0.0	0
2010-03-31	0.0	0
2009-03-31	0.0	0
2008-03-31	0.0	0
2007-03-31	0.0	0
2006-03-31	0.0	0
2005-03-31	0.0	0
2004-03-31	0.0	0
2003-03-31	T	0
2002-03-31	T	0
2001-03-31	0.2	0
2000-03-31	0.0	0

 

 

Thank God the blocking looks to be very short lived and it warms right back up at the beginning of April

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Thank God the blocking looks to be very short lived and it warms right back up at the beginning of April

There's no cold air anyway-it just blocks in a 50 degree airmass for us and gives us some rainy days.   Blah.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

There's no cold air anyway-it just blocks in a 50 degree airmass for us and gives us some rainy days.   Blah.

“Cold” in late March is way, way different than actual cold in Dec, Jan, Feb. Post equinox and we now have the equivalent of an August sun overhead. The pattern depicted at the end of the month is a chilly rain pattern in the metro area at best