psv88 Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 Today felt like June. What a day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 64 here in south Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 Good afternoon all. CPK, ref: NOAA/NWS, at 15:51, 72 degrees. As always ….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 Record highs to our north today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 Feels like May right now. 72 degrees here (Sloatsburg) at 6pm, sun’s still out….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 With abundant sunshine, the temperature soared to near record and record levels in parts of the region. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy but still mild, though nowhere near as warm as today was. Showers and possible thundershowers are possible as a cold front moves across the region. A sustained warmer than normal pattern that could last for at least 1-2 weeks into the closing days of March remains underway. As a consequence, this month could rank among the 15 warmest March cases on record in much of the region. There remains some potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal. Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31: Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2° New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2° Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3° The longer-range guidance has turned cooler for the close of March. Nevertheless, there is uncertainty given both the timeframe involved and the small sample sizes for MJO-ENSO cases. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around March 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +7.13 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.429 today. On March 16 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.013 (RMM). The March 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.866 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.4° (3.7° above normal). 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: The disturbing part is that we are seeing heat that used to be reserved only for July and August earlier now….in May and June and also later….extending into September. There is no arguing anymore that our climate has warmed and changed and very significantly so over the last 10 years especially not really i remember in either the last 1980's or early 1990's we had days in march where the temp was in the upper 80's in nyc in march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: an unmitigated torch especially since the super nino of 15-16 The ‘15-‘16 Super El Nino was so epic it punched its way up into the stratosphere and changed the normal QBO progression. When I saw Nino region 3.4 hit +3.1C at the end of November, 2015, I knew the effects were going to be very, very huge and long-lasting…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 19 hours ago, uncle W said: using mei data 1954-55-1956-57 were la nina... MEI.ext timeseries from Dec/Jan 1871 through Nov/Dec 2005 (noaa.gov) Thanks it also looks like we almost had a 3 year el nino in the early 50s? 1951-52 through 1953-54? 1952-53 just barely missed as it didn't get into el nino three month averages until February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 9 hours ago, snowman19 said: The ‘15-‘16 Super El Nino was so epic it punched its way up into the stratosphere and changed the normal QBO progression. When I saw Nino region 3.4 hit +3.1C at the end of November, 2015, I knew the effects were going to be very, very huge and long-lasting…. I loved how it was way more like 1982-83 than 1997-98, we got the all time south shore snowstorm in late January. It makes me think 1997-98 was an outlier in that even if we have a big el nino with mild temperatures, chances are at the peak of winter there will be one huge snowstorm and it'll favor the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 10 hours ago, nycwinter said: not really i remember in either the last 1980's or early 1990's we had days in march where the temp was in the upper 80's in nyc in march March 1990 was epic and I remember it to this day. Bermuda shorts in NY, no need to go somewhere else on spring break lol. It felt like summer. And then we had snow in early April lol. 1-2" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 13 hours ago, Brian5671 said: an unmitigated torch especially since the super nino of 15-16 the summers between 2010 and 2013 were much hotter than this though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 13 hours ago, Cfa said: 2009 was a nightmare, but 2010-2013 & 2015-2021 have more than made up for it. 2010 was my favorite summer of all time I hope whomever figures out climate control just puts the years of 2009 thru 2018 on repeat.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 13 hours ago, bluewave said: 2009 was the last cool summer around the area. and 2010 the greatest summer of all time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 17 hours ago, uncle W said: March 45 and 46 were very warm...1942 did not have a min below 33...nothing beats the last five days in March 1998...all 80 or above a week after the only snowfall of the winter... idk, I remember March 1990 far better than March 1998 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 19 hours ago, psv88 said: Brutal type of day to live on the south shore of the island...everyone in the 70s and south shore stuck in the 40s. Terrible. depends which part, we were near 70 here in SW Nassau and not a cloud in the sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 18 hours ago, forkyfork said: last summer had more 90 degree days than 2011 through 2013 at ewr nothing matches 2010 I love dry heat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 18 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: That will fuel more severe weather and flooding as well as additional tropical threats. I think the "dry summer" regime is dead for good. dont say that...those are our best and hottest summers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 50degs.(42/59) or +6. Month to date is 45.1[+4.2]. Should be 46.6[+4.6] by the 27th. Reached 61 here yesterday at 5pm. Today: 60-64, wind s. to w., drizzle early and again late, fog early, 47 by tomorrow AM. 51*(99%RH) here at 7am{48 earlier}FOG <0.1mi. 55* at 10am. 58* at Noon and fog lifted. Reached 62* at 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 Today could be our last shot at 70s this month. Models have a wetter pattern by next week with more blocking. Then maybe our last freeze potential in late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly cloudy and warm. Some showers and thundershowers are possible. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 66° Philadelphia: 73° It will turn somewhat cooler tomorrow. A general warmer than normal pattern will continue into at least early next week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 50.7°; 15-Year: 51.4° Newark: 30-Year: 51.7°; 15-Year: 52.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 53.7°; 15-Year: 54.3° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 Hit a comfortable 72 here yesterday, overnight low of 47. Currently 50 under cloudy skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 How close are we to warmest March? Have to be close at this point, right? This is endless warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: How close are we to warmest March? Have to be close at this point, right? This is endless warmth Westchester is currently at the 10th warmest March through the 18th. NYC and other areas are just outside the top 10. Plenty of competition for even warmer recent years. Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 18 Missing Count 1 2016-03-18 45.2 0 2 2012-03-18 45.0 0 3 1973-03-18 44.4 0 4 2020-03-18 43.9 1 5 1983-03-18 43.5 0 6 2010-03-18 43.1 0 7 1990-03-18 42.5 1 8 1977-03-18 41.6 0 9 2000-03-18 41.1 7 10 2022-03-18 40.8 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 18 Missing Count 1 2016-03-18 49.0 0 2 2012-03-18 48.3 0 3 2020-03-18 48.2 0 4 1977-03-18 47.7 0 5 1973-03-18 47.3 0 - 1921-03-18 47.3 0 6 1946-03-18 46.7 0 7 2010-03-18 46.3 0 8 1990-03-18 46.2 0 9 2000-03-18 46.0 0 10 1903-03-18 45.6 0 11 1945-03-18 45.5 0 12 1878-03-18 45.4 0 13 2022-03-18 45.1 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 18 Missing Count 1 1973-03-18 46.3 0 2 2016-03-18 45.3 0 3 2012-03-18 44.2 0 4 2020-03-18 43.9 0 5 2010-03-18 43.6 0 6 1977-03-18 43.4 0 7 2000-03-18 42.5 0 8 1983-03-18 41.9 0 - 1974-03-18 41.9 0 9 2011-03-18 41.6 0 10 1990-03-18 41.4 0 11 2022-03-18 41.3 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 33 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: How close are we to warmest March? Have to be close at this point, right? This is endless warmth You'd think so but we've seen even warmer Marches. If the cool down is mitigated a top 10 warm March is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 46 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: How close are we to warmest March? Have to be close at this point, right? This is endless warmth We've had way warmer March's in the past, and next week doesn't look crazy at all. It's not really out of the ordinary to get some days that reach the 70's, and plus we've had a couple snow events (albeit minor for some) this month too. I see some 20's for lows coming back at the end of my forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 While the blocking pattern coming up doesn’t look like the strongest we have seen this time of year, it’s enough for the backdoor boundary to stall near our area in late March. Less warm temperatures after today than we have been experiencing. Then a slow moving storm system next week under the block. We’ll have to see if NYC can get the last freeze of the season around the 29th which has been the 15 year average. Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length Minimum 03-01 (2020) 10-31 (2020) 215 Mean 03-29 11-19 235 Maximum 04-16 (2014) 12-10 (2011) 257 2021 04-03 (2021) 32 11-23 (2021) 32 233 2020 03-01 (2020) 25 10-31 (2020) 32 243 2019 03-18 (2019) 32 11-08 (2019) 29 234 2018 04-09 (2018) 32 11-14 (2018) 32 218 2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231 2016 04-10 (2016) 31 12-09 (2016) 29 242 2015 04-01 (2015) 32 11-24 (2015) 32 236 2014 04-16 (2014) 31 11-18 (2014) 24 215 2013 03-23 (2013) 32 11-12 (2013) 31 233 2012 03-27 (2012) 30 11-06 (2012) 31 223 2011 03-29 (2011) 31 12-10 (2011) 32 255 2010 03-27 (2010) 29 12-04 (2010) 32 251 2009 03-24 (2009) 27 12-07 (2009) 32 257 2008 03-30 (2008) 28 11-18 (2008) 29 232 2007 04-09 (2007) 32 11-11 (2007) 31 215 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 47 minutes ago, bluewave said: Westchester is currently at the 10th warmest March through the 18th. NYC and other areas are just outside the top 10. Plenty of competition for even warmer recent years. Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 18 Missing Count 1 2016-03-18 45.2 0 2 2012-03-18 45.0 0 3 1973-03-18 44.4 0 4 2020-03-18 43.9 1 5 1983-03-18 43.5 0 6 2010-03-18 43.1 0 7 1990-03-18 42.5 1 8 1977-03-18 41.6 0 9 2000-03-18 41.1 7 10 2022-03-18 40.8 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 18 Missing Count 1 2016-03-18 49.0 0 2 2012-03-18 48.3 0 3 2020-03-18 48.2 0 4 1977-03-18 47.7 0 5 1973-03-18 47.3 0 - 1921-03-18 47.3 0 6 1946-03-18 46.7 0 7 2010-03-18 46.3 0 8 1990-03-18 46.2 0 9 2000-03-18 46.0 0 10 1903-03-18 45.6 0 11 1945-03-18 45.5 0 12 1878-03-18 45.4 0 13 2022-03-18 45.1 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 18 Missing Count 1 1973-03-18 46.3 0 2 2016-03-18 45.3 0 3 2012-03-18 44.2 0 4 2020-03-18 43.9 0 5 2010-03-18 43.6 0 6 1977-03-18 43.4 0 7 2000-03-18 42.5 0 8 1983-03-18 41.9 0 - 1974-03-18 41.9 0 9 2011-03-18 41.6 0 10 1990-03-18 41.4 0 11 2022-03-18 41.3 0 I dont go by average temps that doesn't really indicate real warmth to me. There has to be at least 1 80 degree day otherwise it won't compare to our other top Marches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 49 minutes ago, bluewave said: Westchester is currently at the 10th warmest March through the 18th. NYC and other areas are just outside the top 10. Plenty of competition for even warmer recent years. Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 18 Missing Count 1 2016-03-18 45.2 0 2 2012-03-18 45.0 0 3 1973-03-18 44.4 0 4 2020-03-18 43.9 1 5 1983-03-18 43.5 0 6 2010-03-18 43.1 0 7 1990-03-18 42.5 1 8 1977-03-18 41.6 0 9 2000-03-18 41.1 7 10 2022-03-18 40.8 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 18 Missing Count 1 2016-03-18 49.0 0 2 2012-03-18 48.3 0 3 2020-03-18 48.2 0 4 1977-03-18 47.7 0 5 1973-03-18 47.3 0 - 1921-03-18 47.3 0 6 1946-03-18 46.7 0 7 2010-03-18 46.3 0 8 1990-03-18 46.2 0 9 2000-03-18 46.0 0 10 1903-03-18 45.6 0 11 1945-03-18 45.5 0 12 1878-03-18 45.4 0 13 2022-03-18 45.1 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 18 Missing Count 1 1973-03-18 46.3 0 2 2016-03-18 45.3 0 3 2012-03-18 44.2 0 4 2020-03-18 43.9 0 5 2010-03-18 43.6 0 6 1977-03-18 43.4 0 7 2000-03-18 42.5 0 8 1983-03-18 41.9 0 - 1974-03-18 41.9 0 9 2011-03-18 41.6 0 10 1990-03-18 41.4 0 11 2022-03-18 41.3 0 I love that 1990 is on this list, that was my most memorable March for warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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