March 2022

[the_other_guy]

9 hours ago, rclab said:

 

Good evening. With a good partner Anthony, warmth will always be with you. As to S19’s suggestion, I looked up the area and below is one of the many houses available and a climate abstract. My dream was to live on the Maine coast. When you and your love are established, perhaps you can become reverse snowbirds. My time for dreaming is over. Yours can still come true. Stay well, as always.

If you’re going to live in a climate like that you better have a ski slope nearby. Nice and cheap though!

[CIK62]

The next 8 are averaging 50degs.(44/57) or +7.

Month to date is  43.8[+3.2].       Should be  45.9[+4.5] by the 25th.

Reached 59 again yesterday, but this time at Noon, not midnight like 12 hours earlier.

Today: 50-53, wind ne. to nw. tonight, rain now till midnight, 51 tomorrow AM.

48*(94%RH) here at 7am.         53* at Noon.        55* at 8pm.

[bluewave]

Models going for the final dynamic warming around March 25th. So we get a brief interruption of the spring pattern with some blocking and cooler temperatures. The persistent La Niña background state returns to start April with a warmer -PNA SE Ridge pattern .
 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

If you’re going to live in a climate like that you better have a ski slope nearby. Nice and cheap though!

Agreed who would want to live in the flat portion of far northern Maine unless your a logger. Sw Maine mountains average similar snow with far superior scenery. And you aren’t an additional several hour drive from civilization.  

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The bigger question is why bother to go to Maine at all. New England Does such a great winter sell on their climate people seem to forget most of upstate New York gets more snow and it’s colder too in many places, the Adirondacks for one. 
 

Also we need to stop referring to New York State as the middle Atlantic, it’s just geographically idiotic.

[JustinRP37]

51 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The bigger question is why bother to go to Maine at all. New England Does such a great winter sell on their climate people seem to forget most of upstate New York gets more snow and it’s colder too in many places, the Adirondacks for one. 
 

Also we need to stop referring to New York State as the middle Atlantic, it’s just geographically idiotic.

So much this. It is odd because my relatives in Ohio all think we are like upstate, meanwhile downstate is warmer than most for Ohio. Parts of upstate get far more snow than even some of the snowier mountains of New England. New York is a pretty awesome state geographically. Especially this time of year. There are plenty of days it can be very warm downstate, meanwhile the ski areas in the Adirondacks have plenty of snow. Killington's snowiest month in VT is actually March! Winter is definitely not over for the mountains. Killington will likely be skiing into mid-May once again. Most of the mountains will probably make mid-April. Lots to do around the area. It is just an odd perspective so many have in the metro that we can't easily get out of town.

[rclab]

2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The bigger question is why bother to go to Maine at all. New England Does such a great winter sell on their climate people seem to forget most of upstate New York gets more snow and it’s colder too in many places, the Adirondacks for one. 
 

Also we need to stop referring to New York State as the middle Atlantic, it’s just geographically idiotic.

 

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

So much this. It is odd because my relatives in Ohio all think we are like upstate, meanwhile downstate is warmer than most for Ohio. Parts of upstate get far more snow than even some of the snowier mountains of New England. New York is a pretty awesome state geographically. Especially this time of year. There are plenty of days it can be very warm downstate, meanwhile the ski areas in the Adirondacks have plenty of snow. Killington's snowiest month in VT is actually March! Winter is definitely not over for the mountains. Killington will likely be skiing into mid-May once again. Most of the mountains will probably make mid-April. Lots to do around the area. It is just an odd perspective so many have in the metro that we can't easily get out of town.

Good morning, CPcms, Jrp37. Point well taken. I took a look. Travel from NYC seems more direct. Possible summer/winter retreat? As always.

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

13 hours ago, rclab said:

 

Good evening. With a good partner Anthony, warmth will always be with you. As to S19’s suggestion, I looked up the area and below is one of the many houses available and a climate abstract. My dream was to live on the Maine coast. When you and your love are established, perhaps you can become reverse snowbirds. My time for dreaming is over. Yours can still come true. Stay well, as always.

My favorite part of this is how the realtor pics of the house show it just buried in snow.  On LI, the realtor would do anything to get a pic of the house on a sunny spring or summer day, almost never with snow in the pic.  Here it's like, "That's right, snow.  Deal with it."

 

 

 

[nycwinter]

does anyone follow that commercial look at homes on zillo without any intention to buy one?

[snowman19]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

Models going for the final dynamic warming around March 25th. So we get a brief interruption of the spring pattern with some blocking and cooler temperatures. The persistent La Niña background state returns to start April with a warmer -PNA SE Ridge pattern .
 

 

This CPC disco Typhoon Tip posted in the NE forum would argue strongly against any late month “cold” change. We are very likely to see the cooler end of the month being shown now, to correct much warmer as we move closer in time:   • The MJO has shown better signs of organization, which is reflected in the observational
RMM index and upper-level velocity potential anomalies depicting the leading edge of the
main convective envelope shifting eastward over Africa and the western Indian Ocean during
the past week.
• There is good agreement in the dynamical models favoring continued eastward propagation
of the MJO across the Indian Ocean and into the Maritime Continent during the next two
weeks. Several ensemble members suggest the possible development of a high amplitude
event.
• The enhanced phase of the MJO, as well as predicted Kelvin and Rossby wave activity, is
expected to increase chances for tropical cyclone formation mainly over the Indian Ocean
during the next two weeks.
• The potential for the MJO to constructively interfere with the low frequency footprint would
favor an extratropical response typical of La Niña, yielding warmer than normal temperatures
across eastern North America later in March.

[STORMANLI]

2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

does anyone follow that commercial look at homes on zillo without any intention to buy one?

Yes, I do look-sometimes lustfully-at homes I could only afford if only one of the lottery games would cooperate.

[psv88]

NWS site down?

[donsutherland1]

The sun will return tomorrow and temperatures will surge across the region. The mercury will likely soar to 70° or above in a large part of the northern Middle Atlantic region.

A sustained warmer than normal pattern that could last for at least 1-2 weeks into the closing days of March remains underway. As a consequence, this month could rank among the 15 warmest March cases on record in much of the region.

There remains some potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal.

Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31:

Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2°
New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2°
Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3°

The longer-range guidance has turned cooler for the close of March. Nevertheless, there is uncertainty given both the timeframe involved and the small sample sizes for MJO-ENSO cases.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around March 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March.

The SOI was +13.93 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.724 today.

On March 15 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.867 (RMM). The March 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.690 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.4° (3.7° above normal).

 

[Dan76]

15 minutes ago, psv88 said:

NWS site down?

P&C yes  on and off for the last week

[Dan76]

An error occurred while processing your request.

Reference #102.7fc8d917.1647563709.503f99aa

[LibertyBell]

21 hours ago, bluewave said:

Models going for the final dynamic warming around March 25th. So we get a brief interruption of the spring pattern with some blocking and cooler temperatures. The persistent La Niña background state returns to start April with a warmer -PNA SE Ridge pattern .
 

 

well thats good, so April wont be a cool rainy month then?

Question about this late March cooldown, you dont see this lasting more than 5 days or so?

Also question more long term, since next season is predicted to be a La Nina (53% chance) do you have an early look at possible analogs for third year la ninas?

I believe we had three consecutive la ninas in the late nineties-- 98-99/99-00/00-01....the third year was actually the best of the bunch with the December snowstorm but ended on a sour note in March, but still over 30 inches of snow!  Have other third year la ninas been better than the previous year too?  Either way, at least it's not neutral which looks like the worst combo for us (neutral after la nina)..... as 1989-90 and 2001-02 would attest to.

 

[LibertyBell]

The only other three year la nina I can find besides 1998-99 through 2000-01 in this list is 1973-74 through 1975-76.

 

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

 

I thought this was interesting too

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/elnino/lanina-faq

Is there such a thing as "normal", aside from El Niño and La Niña?

Over the long-term record, sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific diverge from normal in a roughly bell-curve fashion, with El Niño and La Niña at the tails of the curve. Some researchers argue there are only two states, El Niño and non-El Niño, while others believe either El Niño or La Niña is always present to a greater or lesser degree. According to one expert, NCAR's Kevin Trenberth, El Niños were present 31% of the time and La Niñas 23% of the time from 1950 to 1997, leaving about 46% of the period in a neutral state.

 

Other notes:  this seems to show that 2014-15 and 2015-16 was a two year el nino, and the only other examples of that are 1986-87 and 1987-88, 1976-77 and 1977-78 and 1957-58 and 1958-59 and 1968-69 and 1969-70.  Also 2015-16 seems to be the strongest el nino on record, beating out 1997-98.

 

[LoboLeader1]

49 here, topped out at 53 yesterday. Should be 20 degrees warmer than yesterday. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 50degs.(43/58),or +6.

Month to date is  44.1[+3.3].        Should be  46.0[+4.1] by the 26th.

Reached 55 here yesterday.

Today: 70-74, wind w. to s., improving sky conditions, probably only 65 for me.

51*(99%RH) here at 7am, variable misty fog.       56* at 10:30am with skies becoming hazy blue.        54* at 11:30am.       55* at Noon.     59* at 2pm, but   56* at 2:15pm and fog trying for a comeback!     Reached 61* at 5pm.     51* at 11pm.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will become partly sunny and very warm. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 70s and perhaps middle 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 71°

Newark: 74°

Philadelphia: 75°

Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler. A general warmer than normal pattern will continue into at least early next week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 50.3°; 15-Year: 51.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 51.3°; 15-Year: 52.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 53.3°; 15-Year: 54.0°

[bluewave]

Taste of spring next few days. Widespread 70s today. Some spots may reach 70° again tomorrow. Then a chance of thunderstorms on Saturday which could be locally strong to severe.

 

[uncle W]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

The only other three year la nina I can find besides 1998-99 through 2000-01 in this list is 1973-74 through 1975-76.

 

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

 

I thought this was interesting too

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/elnino/lanina-faq

Is there such a thing as "normal", aside from El Niño and La Niña?

Over the long-term record, sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific diverge from normal in a roughly bell-curve fashion, with El Niño and La Niña at the tails of the curve. Some researchers argue there are only two states, El Niño and non-El Niño, while others believe either El Niño or La Niña is always present to a greater or lesser degree. According to one expert, NCAR's Kevin Trenberth, El Niños were present 31% of the time and La Niñas 23% of the time from 1950 to 1997, leaving about 46% of the period in a neutral state.

 

Other notes:  this seems to show that 2014-15 and 2015-16 was a two year el nino, and the only other examples of that are 1986-87 and 1987-88, 1976-77 and 1977-78 and 1957-58 and 1958-59 and 1968-69 and 1969-70.  Also 2015-16 seems to be the strongest el nino on record, beating out 1997-98.

 

using mei data 1954-55-1956-57 were la nina...

MEI.ext timeseries from Dec/Jan 1871 through Nov/Dec 2005 (noaa.gov)

[SnoSki14]

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Taste of spring next few days. Widespread 70s today. Some spots may reach 70° again tomorrow. Then a chance of thunderstorms on Saturday which could be locally strong to severe.

 

Just more multi day 70+ in mid March with severe thunderstorm potential...nothing alarming here. 

[psv88]

Brutal type of day to live on the south shore of the island...everyone in the 70s and south shore stuck in the 40s. Terrible.

[snowman19]

Looks like another blocking fail for the end of the month incoming. Despite the hype on twitter, this is a normal, end of season “final warming”, not a SSW. Further, the SPV was so strong this winter that the remnants will remain in the lower stratosphere, thus limiting the normal -NAO/-AO blocking that would normally occur with a weakening vortex: 

 

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Looks like another blocking fail for the end of the month incoming. Despite the hype on twitter, this is a normal, end of season “final warming”, not a SSW. Further, the SPV was so strong this winter that the remnants will remain in the lower stratosphere, thus limiting the normal -NAO/-AO blocking that would normally occur with a weakening vortex: 

It was always forecast to be a final dynamic warming with a transient -NAO -AO block. Looks like we could see a slow moving closed low. So there is the chance of some heavier rains with a slow moving system under the block. 
 

[CIK62]

I think I joked about the LR   GEFSext or CFSv2 showing an April Fool's Day snow event, when it appeared in late February.......      Still way off.       I want to see repeat runs show this.       Would rival April 06, 1982---but that had  the help of El Chicon Volcanic eruption.

[uncle W]

fog burning off...Dim Sun now...54 now...I bet 74 by 1pm DST...

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, uncle W said:

fog burning off...Dim Sun now...54 now...I bet 74 by 1pm DST...

3 days reaching 70° or warmer used to be a rarity before the start of astronomical spring. 

 

[SnoSki14]

40 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Looks like another blocking fail for the end of the month incoming. Despite the hype on twitter, this is a normal, end of season “final warming”, not a SSW. Further, the SPV was so strong this winter that the remnants will remain in the lower stratosphere, thus limiting the normal -NAO/-AO blocking that would normally occur with a weakening vortex: 

 

This summer could be a brutal one rivaling the early 2010s imo. 

Nina sticking around + record SSTs offshore