bluewave Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: when are we going to have our best chance at 70? it hit 69 here in February, it can't be that hard to get to 70 at the coast JFK can hit 70° on Friday if the winds stay westerly for long enough. 14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I see upper 70s on Friday. Very easy to beat guidance this time of year with bare trees. If we keep the offshore flow long enough, then it will be possible. The models have a wind shift in the afternoon. So it may be a race to see how warm we get before the SE flow and clouds arrive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 Is this warm pattern projected to last the test of the Spring? I am perfectly OK with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: you're not dumb you know why it's snowed more.....climate change = more moisture = more chances of snow. If you look at the years in the range you specified they were MUCH colder than the winters we have now. It almost appears that simple, however, I would assume our temps are similar to the Delmarva area 20-30 years ago? Yet I would guess the NYC metro area still averaged higher snower amounts that that area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Dark Star said: It almost appears that simple, however, I would assume our temps are similar to the Delmarva area 20-30 years ago? Yet I would guess the NYC metro area still averaged higher snower amounts that that area? Being just that little bit further north means better access to the cold air when it's available. This should mean that there's a wider disparity in temps thereby creating more intense precip (which could be snow or rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: you're not dumb you know why it's snowed more.....climate change = more moisture = more chances of snow. If you look at the years in the range you specified they were MUCH colder than the winters we have now. I'd also like to see what the Atlantic SSTA's were like in the 70's, I'm sure they were cooler than today. Also, I believe Atlantic tropical activity was relatively lower in the 70's and 80's than it is today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 12 minutes ago, Dark Star said: It almost appears that simple, however, I would assume our temps are similar to the Delmarva area 20-30 years ago? Yet I would guess the NYC metro area still averaged higher snower amounts that that area? Allot of it has to do with geography. The Delmarva is open to oceanic flow on a NE wind during most coastal storms limiting snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 1 hour ago, White Gorilla said: Is this warm pattern projected to last the test of the Spring? I am perfectly OK with it. Keeping an eye on NAO/AO as they've been positive for months now. I think if they flip it won't be temporary. As long as it doesn't flip before May then spring should stay very warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 9 hours ago, LibertyBell said: the problem is it's no longer the heart of winter, winter now actually consists of two months-- January and February. If both of those months aren't snowy then winter will usually suck. And March. March is the new December. Already had 8 inches in March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 3 hours ago, JTA66 said: I'd also like to see what the Atlantic SSTA's were like in the 70's, I'm sure they were cooler than today. Also, I believe Atlantic tropical activity was relatively lower in the 70's and 80's than it is today. The AMO was severely negative from the end of the 70’s into the early 90’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 Very sad at the ski areas Great season coming to a quick end This sums up Belleayre today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Very sad at the ski areas Great season coming to a quick end This sums up Belleayre today Goes too bfast in that regard especially when most places couldn't even open til very late December. Got out with my family twice was hoping for a 3rd time but too sloppy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 Let’s torch! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 34 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Let’s torch! I'm in. Feels great out there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 5 hours ago, White Gorilla said: Is this warm pattern projected to last the test of the Spring? I am perfectly OK with it. On the latest GFS for Caldwell, after this Friday and Saturday, the only other reasonably warm day on the horizon is next Saturday. There have only been a few scattered “warm days” in the last several GFS models and they’ve only been popping up on Fridays and weekends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 Seemed it could of been warmer today then it actually was with essentially no wind morsy of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 4 hours ago, Allsnow said: Let’s torch! Too early 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: I want snow **** the warmth 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 Reached 62 here today, did maintenance on snowblower and is now in storage until next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 16, 2022 Author Share Posted March 16, 2022 GFS off and on past 2 days 23-30. Already I84 GFS consistent Ice high terrain 23-24. However, my interest is tempered to chanceym until the GGEM comes on board. Again last event, GGEM/RGEM more or less had a consistent idea of heaviest snow... certainly NOT the EC (whew). So til the GGEm gets with it, then the EC...I'll keep going with outdoor spring cleanup and enjoy the warmth of the sun. Walt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 Temperatures again soared well into the 60s in much of the region. However, a storm passing to the south will dent the warmth tomorrow. There will likely be some periods of rain with temperatures being held back in the 50s. The proverbial rubber band will snap on Friday as the sun returns. The mercury will likely soar to 70° or above in a large part of the northern Middle Atlantic region. A sustained warmer than normal pattern that could last for at least 1-2 weeks into the closing days of March remains underway. As a consequence, this month could rank among the 15 warmest March cases on record in much of the region. There remains some potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings, but uncertainty that far out is high. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal. Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31: Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2° New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2° Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3° For now, the extended range ensembles, including the EPS weeklies and CFSv2 show warm anomalies for the closing 10 days of March. Nevertheless, there is uncertainty given both the timeframe involved and the small sample sizes for MJO-ENSO cases. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around March 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +10.86 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.136 today. On March 14 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.702 (RMM). The March 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.937 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.4° (3.7° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: I want snow **** the warmth Fort Kent, Maine….perfect place for you to move to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 Yeah, ski season is going away quickly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 20 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Fort Kent, Maine….perfect place for you to move to How about somewhere in the Tug Hill such as Redfield? That area can get creamed! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: I want snow **** the warmth 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Fort Kent, Maine….perfect place for you to move to Good evening. With a good partner Anthony, warmth will always be with you. As to S19’s suggestion, I looked up the area and below is one of the many houses available and a climate abstract. My dream was to live on the Maine coast. When you and your love are established, perhaps you can become reverse snowbirds. My time for dreaming is over. Yours can still come true. Stay well, as always. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 The latest GFS model (18z) shows nothing past 58 degrees following this weekend’s warmup. And the last week is pretty much all negative temperatures on the 850 hPa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 7 hours ago, MJO812 said: I want snow **** the warmth Getting sick over the weekend with the unseasonable cold and wind we had made me realize I'm over the cold for at least 8 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 44 here currently, low was 41 overnite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be cloudy and cooler with some periods of rain. High temperatures will likely reach the middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 54° Newark: 55° Philadelphia: 59° Tomorrow will be much warmer. A general warmer than normal pattern will continue into at least early next week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 50.0°; 15-Year: 50.7° Newark: 30-Year: 51.0°; 15-Year: 51.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 53.0°; 15-Year: 53.6° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 17, 2022 Author Share Posted March 17, 2022 Continue monitoring GGEM, to see if it shows wintry hazard consistency near I80 or I84. Unsure whether 00z/17 cycle is a start in the wintry direction. Little doubt in my mind 23-24 will be a sizable event in the northeast. whatever the precip. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now