March 2022

[bluewave]

Warm and wet 2nd half of March on the EPS. 
 

March 14-21 temperature departures 

 

March 21-28 temperature departures 

 

March 21-28 rainfall departures 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewave  @donsutherland1 Possibly heading into a rare 3rd year La Niña? 

 

 

It will be interesting to see how things evolve. At this point in time, there is a lot of uncertainty. By late spring, the picture should be clearing.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 Possibly heading into a rare 3rd year La Niña? 

It’s possible with this persistent La Niña background state since 16-17. Very hard for El Niño’s to get going and couple with the record SSTs near the Maritime Continent. These impressive MJO events  just keep reinforcing the La Niña. 
 

Nice discussion from the CPC:

 

• The MJO has shown better signs of organization, which is reflected in the observational RMM index and upper-level velocity potential anomalies depicting the leading edge of the main convective envelope shifting eastward over Africa and the western Indian Ocean during the past week.
• There is good agreement in the dynamical models favoring continued eastward propagation of the MJO across the Indian Ocean and into the Maritime Continent during the next two weeks. Several ensemble members suggest the possible development of a high amplitude event.
• The enhanced phase of the MJO, as well as predicted Kelvin and Rossby wave activity, is expected to increase chances for tropical cyclone formation mainly over the Indian Ocean during the next two weeks.
• The potential for the MJO to constructively interfere with the low frequency footprint would favor an extratropical response typical of La Niña, yielding warmer than normal temperatures across eastern North America later in March.

 

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s possible with this persistent La Niña background state since 16-17. Very hard for El Niño’s to get going and couple with the record SSTs near the Maritime Continent. These impressive MJO events  just keep reinforcing the La Niña. 
 

Nice discussion from the CPC:

 

• The MJO has shown better signs of organization, which is reflected in the observational RMM index and upper-level velocity potential anomalies depicting the leading edge of the main convective envelope shifting eastward over Africa and the western Indian Ocean during the past week.
• There is good agreement in the dynamical models favoring continued eastward propagation of the MJO across the Indian Ocean and into the Maritime Continent during the next two weeks. Several ensemble members suggest the possible development of a high amplitude event.
• The enhanced phase of the MJO, as well as predicted Kelvin and Rossby wave activity, is expected to increase chances for tropical cyclone formation mainly over the Indian Ocean during the next two weeks.
• The potential for the MJO to constructively interfere with the low frequency footprint would favor an extratropical response typical of La Niña, yielding warmer than normal temperatures across eastern North America later in March.

 

The record -PDO/-PMM state is very telling 

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The record -PDO/-PMM state is very telling 

Could be another active hurricane season with a continuing La Niña background state and that record warm pool off the East Coast. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Warm and wet 2nd half of March on the EPS. 
 

March 14-21 temperature departures 

 

March 21-28 temperature departures 

 

March 21-28 rainfall departures 

 

 

Nice cold shot

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Could be another active hurricane season with a continuing La Niña background state and that record warm pool off the East Coast. 

We're really tempting fate with these active hurricane seasons and strengthening SE ridging. 

[Rjay]

43 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nice cold shot

Only 15 more days to go.  

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Only 15 more days to go.  

In 15 days a cool day is basically today's high. 

[donsutherland1]

A sustained warmer than normal pattern that could last for at least 1-2 weeks has now developed. Tomorrow will likely feature widespread high temperatures in the 60s.

There remains some potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings, but uncertainty that far out is high.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around March 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March.

The SOI was +12.83 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.156 today.

On March 12 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.836 (RMM). The March 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.697 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.8° (3.0° above normal).

 

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Nice cold shot

At this point I don't want it. Bring on the torch. 

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Nice cold shot

It’s over Johnny, done, finished, stick a fork in it, give it up, fat lady has sung, let it go, game over, bring down the curtain, lights out, say goodnight and goodbye, adios….a former winter. We don’t live at northern New England’s latitude….

[CIK62]

Basically 45/60 or about +8 for the rest of the month.

 

 

[mattinpa]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

It’s over Johnny, done, finished, stick a fork in it, give it up, fat lady has sung, let it go, game over, bring down the curtain, say goodnight and goodbye, adios….a former winter. We don’t live at northern New England’s latitude….

Well this time I’m not sure I can argue. It really may be over until at least November.. can’t rule out a few colder days though.

[LoboLeader1]

High of 54 yesterday, low of 40 this AM. Currently 41 under clear skies, expecting temps to be in the low 60's today.

[the_other_guy]

7 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Basically 45/60 or about +8 for the rest of the month.

 

 

Very alarming that entire swaths of winter now get cancelled out with extended +10 type weather.

 

It is the end of March, so no one cares…but a warm month is about to get a whole lot warmer

 

 

[the_other_guy]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s over Johnny, done, finished, stick a fork in it, give it up, fat lady has sung, let it go, game over, bring down the curtain, lights out, say goodnight and goodbye, adios….a former winter. We don’t live at northern New England’s latitude….

I made that same call Presidents week. with little variation here and there, it was a good call

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 62°

Newark: 65°

Philadelphia: 68°

A general warmer than normal pattern will continue through at least the remainder of the week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 49.3°; 15-Year: 50.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 50.4°; 15-Year: 51.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 52.3°; 15-Year: 52.8°

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 53degs.(45/62) or +11.

Month to date is 41.9[+1.5].        Should be 46.0[+5.0] by the 23rd.

Reached 50 here yesterday.

Today: 58-61, wind sw., few clouds, 48 by tomorrow AM.

43*(65%RH) here at 7am.       50* at 11am.       54* at Noon.      55* at 12:30pm but has fallen back to just 51* at 2pm.       59* at 10pm.

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

The December 2015 extreme +13.3 departure marked the shift to much warmer winters. This is the first 7 year run of above average winter temperatures in our area.  The SE Ridge has never been this strong for such an extended period of time. 
 

 

how many years does this have to be continue for the SE ridge to be considered a permanent feature in our climate?  at this rate, (and sooner rather than later) it looks like direct human climate modification is the only real solution to avoiding a climate catastrophe....one can argue the catastrophe has already begun but most humans haven't realized it yet.

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, Rjay said:

We're here all year round if you'd like to stick around.  

lol most of the year the weather is utterly boring, and I think the politics and sports subforums will be seeing a lot more action

[bluewave]

42 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

how many years does this have to be continue for the SE ridge to be considered a permanent feature in our climate?  at this rate,

They already have acknowledged that it has been increasing and the NE Coast is one of the fastest warming areas of the planet. But the climate models aren’t good enough to show it. So they are looking for theories like AMOC slow down and more +NAO. But we have seen the feature with a -AO like last winter with the south based blocking. 
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01159-7

The northeastern United States (NEUS) and the adjacent Northwest Atlantic Shelf (NWS) have emerged as warming hotspots, but the connection between them remains unexplored. Here we use gridded observational and reanalysis datasets to show that the twentieth-century surface air temperature increase along the coastal NEUS is exceptional on the continental and hemispheric scale and is induced by a combination of two factors: the sea surface temperature (SST) increase in the NWS associated with a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and atmospheric circulation changes associated with a more persistent positive North Atlantic Oscillation. These connections are important because AMOC slowdown and NWS warming are projected to continue. A survey of climate model simulations indicates that realistic SST representation at high spatial resolution might be a minimum requirement to capture the observed pattern of coastal warming, suggesting that prior projection-based assessments may not have captured key features in this populous region.

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

They already have acknowledged that it has been increasing and the NE Coast is one of the fastest warming areas of the planet. But the climate models aren’t good enough to show it. So they are looking for theories like AMOC slow down and more +NAO. But we have seen the feature with a -AO like last winter with the south based blocking. 
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01159-7

The northeastern United States (NEUS) and the adjacent Northwest Atlantic Shelf (NWS) have emerged as warming hotspots, but the connection between them remains unexplored. Here we use gridded observational and reanalysis datasets to show that the twentieth-century surface air temperature increase along the coastal NEUS is exceptional on the continental and hemispheric scale and is induced by a combination of two factors: the sea surface temperature (SST) increase in the NWS associated with a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and atmospheric circulation changes associated with a more persistent positive North Atlantic Oscillation. These connections are important because AMOC slowdown and NWS warming are projected to continue. A survey of climate model simulations indicates that realistic SST representation at high spatial resolution might be a minimum requirement to capture the observed pattern of coastal warming, suggesting that prior projection-based assessments may not have captured key features in this populous region.

The interesting aspect of this is two fold, will it

a) increase the rate of icemelt of the Greenland Ice Shelf and 

b) will it accelerate sea level rise even more than what's currently projected to occur by 2050 and 2100?

 

[rclab]

10 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s over Johnny, done, finished, stick a fork in it, give it up, fat lady has sung, let it go, game over, bring down the curtain, lights out, say goodnight and goodbye, adios….a former winter. We don’t live at northern New England’s latitude….

Good morning S19. Judging from the number of weeny comments your Eulogy for the cold season garnered …. Anthony’s # 1 Weeny Power Ranking may be in jeopardy. Stay well, as always ….

[Brian5671]

3 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Very alarming that entire swaths of winter now get cancelled out with extended +10 type weather.

 

It is the end of March, so no one cares…but a warm month is about to get a whole lot warmer

 

 

December was a torch, January was actually cold, Feb was warm and March looks like a torch.  Another 3-4 week winter lol.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

The interesting aspect of this is two fold, will it

a) increase the rate of icemelt of the Greenland Ice Shelf and 

b) will it accelerate sea level rise even more than what's currently projected to occur by 2050 and 2100?

 

They get into all those questions with the online presentation that was just posted a few weeks ago. Things like the increasing summer dewpoints in recent years. Why did the lower resolution  global climate models miss this. How some higher resolution models are doing a better job but are not perfect. Future areas of research to include increasing heavy snowfall and rainfall.

We have been noticing these changes.  It’s also interesting how many  of the storms correct further north in time. Plus week 2 model forecast cool downs that trend less impressive the closer in time the models get.

With 7 warm winters  in a row, seasonal forecasts need to include this new data. There  have been plenty of outlets that have been too cold with nearly all their winter forecasts since 15-16. So they owe it to their clients to absorb the presentation and correct their seasonal forecasts so their clients  can make better decisions. 
 

 

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

December was a torch, January was actually cold, Feb was warm and March looks like a torch.  Another 3-4 week winter lol.

Winters are getting shorter 

[matt8204]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Winters are getting shorter 

The seasons seem to have shifted a bit also.  It stays warm longer in the fall and it often takes longer to get extended periods of nice weather in the spring.

[HeadInTheClouds]

4 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Very alarming that entire swaths of winter now get cancelled out with extended +10 type weather.

 

It is the end of March, so no one cares…but a warm month is about to get a whole lot warmer

 

 

January was 3.5 below normal and Feb was only 1.5 above. The heart of winter wasn't exactly a heat wave. 

[bluewave]

Another day with high temperatures beating  guidance. 65° now at Newark. So Newark moves into 4th place for most 65° days by March 15th.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 65 Jan 1 to Mar 15	Missing Count
1	2017-03-15	10	0
2	2000-03-15	7	0
3	1990-03-15	6	0
-	1976-03-15	6	0
4	2020-03-15	5	0
-	2016-03-15	5	0
-	2012-03-15	5	0
-	2008-03-15	5	0
-	2002-03-15	5	0
-	1991-03-15	5	0
-	1974-03-15	5	0
-	1973-03-15	5	0
-	1946-03-15	5	0
	2022-03-15	5	0