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March 2022


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Despite bright sunshine, temperatures remained in the 30s in much of the northern Middle Atlantic region. At New York City, the high temperature of 35° was the coldest high temperature after March 10 since March 15, 2017 when the mercury peaked at just 26°. At Philadelphia, the high temperature of 38° was the coldest high temperature since March 21, 2018 when the maximum temperature was 36°.

The evening also saw snow showers bring a coating of snow across parts of northern New Jersey and southeastern New York State. Now, winter weather will yield to more typical springtime weather.

A sustained warmer than normal pattern that could last for at least 1-2 weeks will develop starting tomorrow. There remains some potential for the month to end with cooler readings, but uncertainty that far out is high.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around March 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March.

The SOI was +17.33 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.269 today.

On March 11 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.698 (RMM). The March 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.367 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.8° (3.0° above normal).

 

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11 hours ago, uncle W said:

1967 was up and down until the Summer...After an April Fools warm spell it got cold until June...NYC very rarely gets below 60 in July or August like it did in the past...in the Summer I can see highs range from 100 on a clear day to a cloudy 70 a few days later...minimums would be near 80 to near 60...

didn't we have a big change after it was over 100 in 1977 3 days out of 4? (or was it 2 days out of 3)?

 

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12 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yup that's it for winter. Get ready for allergy season. Growing season will kick into high gear with temperatures mostly in the 60s a full month ahead of schedule.

Weather wise it looks extremely boring

get ready for allergy season? It's been here for over a week!  I'm looking to start spraying to kill anything that causes my allergies this week

 

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11 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

No question about that. When I talk about early planting, of course I'm talking about cool season vegetables that can take frost/freeze. For sensitive stuff that can be damaged by frost like tomatoes, it's important to wait until early May in our area.

do what I do, plant inside and take them outside in May

 

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22 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

been warming up steadily all night.  started at 28F.  now sitting at 33F.  winter is OVA! Bring on the pollen and 70-80’s

The peepers are out already, which is pretty early for them, they usually start the tail end of the month or the beginning of April. Heard them last night, a sure sign winter is done….

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny and much milder. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 54°

Newark: 55°

Philadelphia: 59°

A general warmer than normal pattern will continue through at least the remainder of the week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 49.0°; 15-Year: 49.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 50.0°; 15-Year: 50.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 51.9°; 15-Year: 52.4°

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The next 8 days are averaging 51degs.(43/59) or +9.

Month to date is 41.7[+1.5].      Should be 45.2[+4.3] by the 22nd.

Reached 36 here yesterday.

Today: 50-54, wind w., clearing skies, 43 by tomorrow AM.

36*(63%RH) here at 7am.{was 33 overnight}.        44* at 11am.       50* at 3pm.

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Warm records in winter flowing like wine; I hate it. All in all, a meh winter offset by a wintry January. I’d of taken a slightly warmer Jan for a colder Dec and Feb. Just hoping we’ve not seen the last of true winters here. Seems very difficult to conclude that’s the case, but at the very least the chances of a proper winter seem to be diminishing as we hit warm record after warm record. 
 

If this is it for winter this year, see you all next year! Was a blast despite the general disappointment, very happy I finally signed up here. Very intelligent and interesting bunch of posters. 
 

Hoping for one more cold shot at the end of the month, but not holding my breath!

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8 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Warm records in winter flowing like wine; I hate it. All in all, a meh winter offset by a wintry January. I’d of taken a slightly warmer Jan for a colder Dec and Feb. Just hoping we’ve not seen the last of true winters here. Seems very difficult to conclude that’s the case, but at the very least the chances of a proper winter seem to be diminishing as we hit warm record after warm record. 
 

If this is it for winter this year, see you all next year! Was a blast despite the general disappointment, very happy I finally signed up here. Very intelligent and interesting bunch of posters. 
 

Hoping for one more cold shot at the end of the month, but not holding my breath!

The December 2015 extreme +13.3 departure marked the shift to much warmer winters. This is the first 7 year run of above average winter temperatures in our area.  The SE Ridge has never been this strong for such an extended period of time. 
 

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1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Warm records in winter flowing like wine; I hate it. All in all, a meh winter offset by a wintry January. I’d of taken a slightly warmer Jan for a colder Dec and Feb. Just hoping we’ve not seen the last of true winters here. Seems very difficult to conclude that’s the case, but at the very least the chances of a proper winter seem to be diminishing as we hit warm record after warm record. 
 

If this is it for winter this year, see you all next year! Was a blast despite the general disappointment, very happy I finally signed up here. Very intelligent and interesting bunch of posters. 
 

Hoping for one more cold shot at the end of the month, but not holding my breath!

We're here all year round if you'd like to stick around.  

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3 hours ago, matt8204 said:

Not a day with a high below 54 in my extended forecast that goes through the first week of April.  Looks like we won't see another flake until November or December at the earliest.  

depends on rain and wind direction i'm sure in early april we will get a day with rain and a northeast wind it will be in the 40's.

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2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

depends on rain and wind direction i'm sure in early april we will get a day with rain and a northeast wind it will be in the 40's.

yeah there's no way we get 2-3 weeks without a crap day of onshore flow.   (unless it's '01-'02/'11-12 then maybe!)

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