donsutherland1 Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Tbink NYC will get to 20" seasonal snowfall with this Don? We’ll probably fall just short unless the changeover occurs between 10 am and 11 am. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Quick warm up following the brief Arctic shot this weekend. A warmer south based -AO pattern will develop over the next 10 days that will merge with the SE Ridge. So expect the ridge axis to get elongated to east of New England. This will allow more onshore flow at times. So plenty of 50s and 60s. Could see a few warmer days topping out in the low 70s. But the more -AO may prevent the area from reaching 80° this month like we did the last two years. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 I'm not ruling out an April slush event and cold spell before it gets very warm later in the month... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Quick warm up following the brief Arctic shot this weekend. A warmer south based -AO pattern will develop over the next 10 days that will merge with the SE Ridge. So expect the ridge axis to get elongated to east of New England. This will allow more onshore flow at times. So plenty of 50s and 60s. Could see a few warmer days topping out in the low 70s. But the more -AO may prevent the area from reaching 80° this month like we did the last two years. Having a -AO or a -NAO seems to be meaningless because 1) most of them occur in spring and 2) it seems most of the time we get the south based or east based kind that aren't that good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 25 minutes ago, uncle W said: I'm not ruling out an April slush event and cold spell before it gets very warm later in the month... Yes, sort of like how we got to 40 inches in 2005-06. That event in April 2006 (during the day I might add)- was actually more like 1-2 inches here. Do you have video from that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: We’ll probably fall just short unless the changeover occurs between 10 am and 11 am. Looks like chances have increased as it's already changed over in Manhattan and Brooklyn, Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: We’ll probably fall just short unless the changeover occurs between 10 am and 11 am. Don you called it with your March suggestion of a couple winter events possible. Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Having a -AO or a -NAO seems to be meaningless because 1) most of them occur in spring and 2) it seems most of the time we get the south based or east based kind that aren't that good for us. The winter AO and NAO states have been defined by increasing positive and negative extremes. So one phase has not been favored over the other since 2010. Strongest -NAO winter in 09-10 on record and most +NAO on record in 2015. Record SPV in 19-20 followed by 2nd highest number -AO days in 20-21. Back to very +AO this winter. So wild swings from one extreme to the other. Spring has been mostly +AO but with a -NAO. So more east based blocking during the spring for some reason. Winter Spring 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 4 hours ago, White Gorilla said: For once... For ONCE this winter, my area is in the highest snowfall range across the metro. APB out on Snowhole19 for weenieing and fleeing from the scene of a crime, he was last seen 4 hours ago leaving his last weenie at the end of the above post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: The winter AO and NAO states have been defined by increasing positive and negative extremes. So one phase has not been favored over the other since 2010. Strongest -NAO winter in 09-10 on record and most +NAO on record in 2015. Record SPV in 19-20 followed by 2nd highest number -AO days in 20-21. Back to very +AO this winter. So wild swings from one extreme to the other. Spring has been mostly +AO but with a -NAO. So more east based blocking during the spring for some reason. Winter Spring Well that explains the cooler springs....I think you said that May was the month most likely to have a -NAO, does that have to do with lack of ice cover in the Arctic? Also the blocking last winter was south based but we still had good snows, does that mean that ANY -NAO even a south or east based one is better than any +NAO? Also interesting that we had our strongest -NAO on record in 2009-10, did it flip to a +NAO for our hottest summer on record in 2010 and then back to strongly -NAO again for the 2010-11 winter, Chris? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Also interesting that we had our strongest -NAO on record in 2009-10, did it flip to a +NAO for our hottest summer on record in 2010 and then back to strongly -NAO again for the 2010-11 winter, Chris? The south based -AO and -PNA in spring 2010 gave us the record warmth. The -AO remained in place all summer but the -PNA pumped the SE Ridge for record warmth. 2009 was our last really cool summer since the -AO linked up with the +PNA. So the context of how the other teleconnections interact with the AO is important. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: The south based -AO and -PNA in spring 2010 gave us the record warmth. The -AO remained in place all summer but the -PNA pumped the SE Ridge for record warmth. 2009 was our last really cool summer since the -AO linked up with the +PNA. So the context of how the other teleconnections interact with the AO is important. oh interesting, so it looks like I shall be rooting for a south based -AO couple with a -PNA for the summer, does that seem likely from this far out? also for snowfall, is it true that any type of -NAO is better than any type of +NAO? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Looks like chances have increased as it's already changed over in Manhattan and Brooklyn, Don? Unfortunately, dry air wrapped into the developing storm’s circulation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Unfortunately, dry air wrapped into the developing storm’s circulation. all forecasts busted so no measurable snowfall in NYC or any of the airports, Don, so far anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: all forecasts busted so no measurable snowfall in NYC or any of the airports, Don, so far anyway? LGA had 0.4” and EWR had 0.3” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: LGA had 0.4” and EWR had 0.3” okay but none yet for NYC or JFK? Hopefully this line coming through will change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: okay but none yet for NYC or JFK? Hopefully this line coming through will change that. Just a trace at both of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: Just a trace at both of them. Don I'm going to put an article in banter that you might be interested in, feel free to check it out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 The storm responsible for today's mainly light snowfall will rapidly intensify as it heads toward eastern Canada. In its wake, temperatures will plunge into the teens outside Newark and New York City and the lower 20s elsewhere. Tomorrow will be blustery and cold. Afterward, the potential exists for the development of a sustained warmer than normal pattern. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around March 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +16.23 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.737 today. On March 10 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.366 (RMM). The March 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.054 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.6° (2.8° above normal). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 Happy Daylight Savings Time everyone! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 49degs.(41/57) or +7. Month to date is 42.8[+2.7]. Should be 45.3[+4.4] by the 21st. The Common Ass Wipe L.R. Model (the CFSv2) still says we are about to experience the coldest April in history---starting, say March 23 by 5-Day periods onward. So I won't need my SPF 50? Reached 48 early yesterday at 8am. Reached 32 at 1pm as it fell toward 25 at midnight. Just flurries despite the quicker than expected T drop---around 6pm. Today: 35-37, wind w. and breezy, clouding up, no T change overnight. Clocks moved ahead. 22*(53%RH) here at 7am. 25* at 9am. Reached 37* at 4:30pm. 31* at 7pm, snow shower and T went down to 28* and whitened the ground more than the main storm yesterday. 32* at 10pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 Currently 22 here this AM, with the wind chill feels like 8. Reached 43 yesterday morning, before FROPA came in and temps dropped steadly there after. Highest wind gust recorded here yesterday was 51mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 39 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said: Currently 22 here this AM, with the wind chill feels like 8. Reached 43 yesterday morning, before FROPA came in and temps dropped steadly there after. Highest wind gust recorded here yesterday was 51mph. they should change clocks on Friday night so you have two days to recover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 I just hate the lost hour of sleep. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 1 minute ago, WarrenCtyWx said: I just hate the lost hour of sleep. Sleep an hour later, thats what I do It'll be gone and done with in a few years anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 NO POLITICS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 Multiple record temperature swings this week in excess of 50° over a short period of time. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&hours=126&month=mar&dir=cool&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 24 minutes ago, bluewave said: Multiple record temperature swings this week in excess of 50° over a short period of time. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&hours=126&month=mar&dir=cool&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png Can this happen in the summer too, Chris? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Can this happen in the summer too, Chris? Less of a temperature range during the summer. But I believe the record was in June 2011 at close to 40°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 Cold and raw end to March and start of April ? CFS ( saw this in the mid Atlantic forum) 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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