March 2022

[bluewave]

Quick warm up next week on the EPS following the cold and snow potential this weekend. But it doesn’t look like there will be record warmth like we saw with the deep SW flow this week. More potential for the highs to build east of New England with onshore influence at times.  
 

March 14-21 EPS

Temperature departures 

 

Surface pressure anomalies big high east of New England

 

 

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Quick warm up next week on the EPS following the cold and snow potential this weekend. But it doesn’t look like there will be record warmth like we saw with the deep SW flow this week. More potential for the highs to build east of New England with onshore influence at times.  
 

March 14-21 EPS

Temperature departures 

 

Surface pressure anomalies big high east of New England

 

 

This actually sounds like the summer pattern showing itself early.

Are we going to have another BORING summer with temperatures in the 80s and low 90s at most with high humidity?  Give me the early 2010s summers....

 

[donsutherland1]

Milder air returned to the region following yesterday's snowfall in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Tomorrow will be another mild day.

Temperatures will likely rise into the upper 40s and lower 50s tomorrow. Saturday will also be mild with the potential for rain and high winds. Temperatures could fall sharply later in the day with rain changing to a period of accumulating snow in northern and western sections of the region. There remains some possibility that minor accumulations could reach the coastline.

Sunday will be blustery and cold. Afterward, the potential exists for the development of a sustained warmer than normal pattern.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around March 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March.

The SOI was +7.90 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.085 today.

On March 8 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.743 (RMM). The March 7-adjusted amplitude was 0.471 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.4° (2.6° above normal).

 

[LoboLeader1]

 47* for a high earlier today, overnite low was 29*. Currently 45*.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 43degs.(36/49) or +1.

Reached 48 here yesterday.

Today: 52-54, wind w. to s., few clouds, 45 tomorrow AM and raining.      Could end as snow, T to 4" in the PM.    EURO is a  One Trick Tommy and goes for the 50's to 70 before and after passage.

40*(65%RH) here at 6am.     43* at 8am.       45* at 10am.      47* at Noon.      49* 3pm-5pm.          45*  at 7pm.

[LoboLeader1]

27 here as of 7AM

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny and mild. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 53°

Newark: 55°

Philadelphia: 59°

A strong storm will be followed by a brief but sharp cold shot during the weekend. A period of accumulating snow is likely north and west of New York City and Newark. A minor accumulation is possible in both cities.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 48.1°; 15-Year: 48.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 49.1°; 15-Year: 49.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 50.9°; 15-Year: 51.3°

[bluewave]

Looks like we can finally see some -AO -NAO blocking in late March as the SPV finally weakens for the season. 
 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like we can finally see some -AO -NAO blocking in late March as the SPV finally weakens for the season. 
 

Backdoor season begins

[MJO812]

[EastonSN+]

This is why I hate early spring in the Northeast.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like we can finally see some -AO -NAO blocking in late March as the SPV finally weakens for the season. 
 

I love cool springs 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is why I hate early spring in the Northeast.

Technically March is a winter month 

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I love cool springs 

Temperatures should still average above normal this month.  Newark is already +3.3 with a quick warm up on the way for next week. But the 76° high this week may be the warmest of the month. 

NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Daily Data For a Month
March 2022

Day   MaxT   MinT   AvgT   Dprt    HDD    CDD   Pcpn   Snow   Dpth
 1      48     30     39      1     26      0      T    0.0      0
 2      54     40     47      8     18      0   0.00    0.0      0
 3      46     25     36     -3     29      0   0.06    0.0      0
 4      39     20     30     -9     35      0   0.00    0.0      0
 5      46     26     36     -3     29      0   0.00    0.0      0
 6      69     44     57     17      8      0   0.04    0.0      0
 7      76     50     63     23      2      0   0.01    0.0      0
 8      50     38     44      4     21      0   0.00    0.0      0
 9      42     33     38     -2     27      0   0.60    0.5      0
10      50     30     40     -1     25      0   0.00    0.0      0

[SnoSki14]

52 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I love cool springs 

March will still average AN but April could end up on the cool side relative to climo. 

[winterwx21]

It's 61 degrees here right now. As usual temps went a few degrees above forecast. Absolutely beautiful outside, but I'm also looking forward to the snow tomorrow.

[LoboLeader1]

56 here, great day to be outdoors.

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like we can finally see some -AO -NAO blocking in late March as the SPV finally weakens for the season. 
 

why does this always happen when Spring begins? I remember you mentioned this a few years ago that -NAO are becoming much more rare in winter and much more common in the spring.

 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will start mild. Rain, some of which could be heavy, and high winds are likely. Temperatures will fall sharply during the morning. Rain will change to a period of accumulating snow, with the highest amounts north and west of Newark and New York City. The snow could be briefly heavy.

Snowfall estimates:

Allentown: 3"-6"
Baltimore: 1"-3"
Boston: 1" or less
Bridgeport: 1" or less
Islip: 1" or less
New York City: 1"-3"
Newark: 1"-3"
Philadelphia: 1"-3"
Poughkeepsie: 4"-8"
Washington, DC: 1"-3"
White Plains: 2"-4"

Sunday will be blustery and cold. Afterward, the potential exists for the development of a sustained warmer than normal pattern.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around March 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March.

The SOI was +8.04 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.439 today.

On March 9 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.061 (RMM). The March 8-adjusted amplitude was 0.741 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.6° (2.8° above normal).

 

[CIK62]

After a cold Sunday, the next 14 days starting Monday are averaging 49degs.(42/56) or +7.       The Ensemble is hotter at +10.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will start mild. Rain, some of which could be heavy, and high winds are likely. Temperatures will fall sharply during the morning. Rain will change to a period of accumulating snow, with the highest amounts north and west of Newark and New York City. The snow could be briefly heavy.

Snowfall estimates:

Allentown: 3"-6"
Baltimore: 1"-3"
Boston: 1" or less
Bridgeport: 1" or less
Islip: 1" or less
New York City: 1"-3"
Newark: 1"-3"
Philadelphia: 1"-3"
Poughkeepsie: 4"-8"
Washington, DC: 1"-3"
White Plains: 2"-4"

Sunday will be blustery and cold. Afterward, the potential exists for the development of a sustained warmer than normal pattern.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around March 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March.

The SOI was +8.04 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.439 today.

On March 9 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.061 (RMM). The March 8-adjusted amplitude was 0.741 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.6° (2.8° above normal).

 

Don why is this storm moving so quickly?  Is it because of the lack of blocking or is something more going on?

 

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don why is this storm moving so quickly?  Is it because of the lack of blocking or is something more going on?

 

No blocking and a really fast jet stream.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

No blocking and a really fast jet stream.

whats your opinion of the future....looking years down the line....will we see a lot more of these positive NAO/AO because of the warming of the Atlantic that you described and will we see a lot more La Ninas because of a similar warming occurring in the Western Pacific?

Have you seen the latest IPCC report that projects a 14% increase in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 rather than the required 45% decrease needed to avert catastrophic consequences, Don?

 

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

whats your opinion of the future....looking years down the line....will we see a lot more of these positive NAO/AO because of the warming of the Atlantic that you described and will we see a lot more La Ninas because of a similar warming occurring in the Western Pacific?

Have you seen the latest IPCC report that projects a 14% increase in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 rather than the required 45% decrease needed to avert catastrophic consequences, Don?

 

I suspect we’ll see more NAO+ winters, but am more uncertain about ENSO. The world remains on course to badly miss its 2030 goal. The ongoing war could accelerate the transition in Europe and the U.S., especially if fossil fuel prices remain high.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect we’ll see more NAO+ winters, but am more uncertain about ENSO. The world remains on course to badly miss its 2030 goal. The ongoing war could accelerate the transition in Europe and the U.S., especially if fossil fuel prices remain high.

so a positive from the high prices at least.

 

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 43 here, had some light rain showers earlier. 

[White Gorilla]

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don why is this storm moving so quickly?  Is it because of the lack of blocking or is something more going on?

 

For once... For ONCE this winter, my area is in the highest snowfall range across the metro. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 44degs.(37/51), or +2.

Reached 49 here yesterday.

Today: 48 to 40 by 1pm to 32 by 7pm to 22 by tomorrow AM, wind n. to w. and gusty, precip. ends before B.L. is at 32, so just rain to sleet apparently.

H.W. for rest of month starting Monday?   Apparently 40 to 70 will be the range.   CFSv2 was used toilet paper with its March  prediction---Get It CHEAP from NOAA, 10 Smelly Rolls.....1cent.

48*(95%RH) here at 6am, FOG<0.1mi.       47* at 9am, fog,rain 2mi visibility now.     Wow! T falling faster than scheduled, now 39* at 10am, fog lifting and wind moving on up---995mb.      34* at 11am and 992mb.     33* at Noon, 991.6mb.     Reached 32* at 1:15pm. but no snow.       25* at 6pm--- Finally snow flurries-----999.2mb.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will become rainy and very windy. The temperature will fall from morning highs. Rain will change to a period of potentially heavy snow, particularly to the west of New York City and Newark. There could be near blizzard conditions along with some thunder in some of the distant northern and western suburbs. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 46°

Newark: 45°

Philadelphia: 48°

Tomorrow will be blustery and cold. Milder air will return on Monday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 48.4°; 15-Year: 49.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 49.4°; 15-Year: 50.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 51.2°; 15-Year: 51.7°

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

It will become rainy and very windy. The temperature will fall from morning highs. Rain will change to a period of potentially heavy snow, particularly to the west of New York City and Newark. There could be near blizzard conditions along with some thunder in some of the distant northern and western suburbs. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 46°

Newark: 45°

Philadelphia: 48°

Tomorrow will be blustery and cold. Milder air will return on Monday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 48.4°; 15-Year: 49.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 49.4°; 15-Year: 50.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 51.2°; 15-Year: 51.7°

Tbink NYC will get to 20" seasonal snowfall with this Don?