bluewave Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 The very impressive La Niña background state continues. So instead of weakening into the spring like usual, it’s actually getting stronger again. This has lead to the models correcting stronger on the SE Ridge this month. The brief Arctic shot behind the intense weekend storm will be a bit of an outlier for the warmer than average SE Ridge pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Yeah looks warm next week but I can see a crappy end to March/start April with blocking forming 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: No. The NAO will likely stay positive. whats the reason the NAO has been so positive this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The very impressive La Niña background state continues. So instead of weakening into the spring like usual, it’s actually getting stronger again. This has lead to the models correcting much stronger on the SE Ridge this month. The brief Arctic shot behind the intense weekend storm will be a bit of an outlier for the warmer SE Ridge pattern this month. hopefully it lasts right through summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 52 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: whats the reason the NAO has been so positive this year? The persistence in the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies is likely an important factor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Yeah looks warm next week but I can see a crappy end to March/start April with blocking forming Like clockwork 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 On 3/7/2022 at 9:10 PM, ForestHillWx said: That’s right over my hood. Saw a wild amber flash to my south; I’m guessing a local transformer. Our house is between Mendham/long valley and bedminster is south. I'm late with this, but we're in hackettstown and never saw any Lightning or heard any thunder Monday evening. Nasty wind though. Nearly blew a chair off the front deck. Presently at work here in Long Valley it is white rain and no nice way to say it... Crappy out. Is this winter's last gasp? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 March delivered yet again FMBY. 1 inch so far. Only had half inch in December. Looking like the 7th below average snowfall winter this century is unavoidable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 This is the 7th time in the last 10 years that ISP had more snow in March than December. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSOKX&e=202203091826 Islip Airport 1.2 in 0100 PM 03/09 Official NWS Obs Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.9 3.0 15.6 13.0 7.9 0.6 40.9 2021-2022 T 0.3 31.8 3.3 1.2 M 36.6 2020-2021 0.0 7.5 1.1 24.9 T T 33.5 2019-2020 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 T T 6.8 2018-2019 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8 2017-2018 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9 2016-2017 T 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 T 39.3 2015-2016 0.0 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 0.2 41.4 2014-2015 T 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 0.0 63.7 2013-2014 0.3 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 0.2 63.7 2012-2013 4.2 0.6 3.3 31.4 7.4 0.0 46.9 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Milder conditions will follow in the wake of a storm that brought snow to parts of the northern Middle Atlantic region today. Temperatures will likely rise into the upper 40s and lower 50s tomorrow and Friday. Saturday will also be mild with the potential for rain and high winds. Temperatures could fall sharply later in the day with rain changing to a period of accumulating snow in northern and western sections of the region. Sunday will be blustery and cold. Afterward, the potential exists for the development of a sustained warmer than normal pattern. Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal. There may also be one or two opportunities for at least some measurable snow in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around March 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +12.68 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.002 today. On March 7 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.468 (RMM). The March 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.333 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.4° (2.6° above normal). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Well we have this as a finale I know end of a GFS run. Just added for fun. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: The persistence in the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies is likely an important factor. well that wont change any time soon. Might have many years like this 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 30 here this AM, received 1/2 inch of snow yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 43degs.(35/50) or +2. Reached 44 yesterday at midnight. Mostly 37 during the PM. Month to date is 43.2[+3.5]. Should be about 43.1[+2.8] by the 18th. RRWT Constant Chaos LR still says Normal to BN for the next 30 days. T's take off mid April. Today: 47-49, wind variable, p. cloudy, breaks, 38 by tomorrow AM. Clocks go forward on Saturday night. 36*(89%RH) here at 6am-FOG <0.10mi. 37* at 8am and fog mostly gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and milder. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 50° Newark: 50° Philadelphia: 54° A strong storm will be followed by a brief but sharp cold shot during the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 47.8°; 15-Year: 48.4° Newark: 30-Year: 48.8°; 15-Year: 49.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 50.6°; 15-Year: 51.0° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 31° FZFG 1/16 SM South Commack A rarity around here. KISP has 1SM sfc 1/8SM TWR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 31 degrees. Visibility is a few hundred feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 34 minutes ago, STORMANLI said: 31° FZFG 1/16 SM South Commack A rarity around here. KISP has 1SM sfc 1/8SM TWR ISP vis down to 1/16 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 KISP sfc is higher at 1/2SM Contributing factor to 1/16SM in Commack is we still have 1.3" snow depth here while if they are not reporting any. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 30 here with thick fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 This was the first time between March 1-10 that Newark had measurable snow 2 days after reaching 75°+. The previous record was 3 days set in 1972. 3rd place goes to 1976 which took 4 days. So a continuation of the snow and record warmth close together theme that has become more common here. NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Daily Data For a Month March 2022 Day MaxT MinT AvgT Dprt HDD CDD Pcpn Snow Dpth 1 48 30 39.0 0.7 26 0 T 0.0 0 2 54 40 47.0 8.5 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 3 46 25 35.5 -3.3 29 0 0.06 0.0 0 4 39 20 29.5 -9.6 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 5 46 26 36.0 -3.3 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 6 69 44 56.5 16.9 8 0 0.04 0.0 0 7 76 50 63.0 23.2 2 0 0.01 0.0 0 8 50 38 44.0 3.9 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 9 42 33 37.5 -2.9 27 0 0.60 0.5 0 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Daily Data For a Month March 1972 Day MaxT MinT AvgT Dprt HDD CDD Pcpn Snow Dpth 1 75 42 58.5 20.2 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2 78 58 68.0 29.5 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 3 65 26 45.5 6.7 19 0 0.73 T 0 4 35 20 27.5 -11.6 37 0 T T 0 5 43 27 35.0 -4.3 30 0 0.18 0.2 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Daily Data For a Month March 1976 Day MaxT MinT AvgT Dprt HDD CDD Pcpn Snow Dpth 1 59 43 51.0 12.7 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 2 43 33 38.0 -0.5 27 0 0.03 0.0 0 3 37 30 33.5 -5.3 31 0 T 0.0 0 4 48 34 41.0 1.9 24 0 0.12 0.0 0 5 75 44 59.5 20.2 5 0 0.02 0.0 0 6 62 35 48.5 8.9 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 7 52 31 41.5 1.7 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 8 42 30 36.0 -4.1 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 9 30 25 27.5 -12.9 37 0 0.28 3.8 0 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: This was the first time between March 1-10 that Newark had measurable snow 2 days after reaching 75°+. The previous record was 3 days set in 1972. 3rd place goes to 1976 which took 4 days. So a continuation of the snow and record warmth close together theme that has become more common here. NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Daily Data For a Month March 2022 Day MaxT MinT AvgT Dprt HDD CDD Pcpn Snow Dpth 1 48 30 39.0 0.7 26 0 T 0.0 0 2 54 40 47.0 8.5 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 3 46 25 35.5 -3.3 29 0 0.06 0.0 0 4 39 20 29.5 -9.6 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 5 46 26 36.0 -3.3 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 6 69 44 56.5 16.9 8 0 0.04 0.0 0 7 76 50 63.0 23.2 2 0 0.01 0.0 0 8 50 38 44.0 3.9 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 9 42 33 37.5 -2.9 27 0 0.60 0.5 0 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Daily Data For a Month March 1972 Day MaxT MinT AvgT Dprt HDD CDD Pcpn Snow Dpth 1 75 42 58.5 20.2 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2 78 58 68.0 29.5 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 3 65 26 45.5 6.7 19 0 0.73 T 0 4 35 20 27.5 -11.6 37 0 T T 0 5 43 27 35.0 -4.3 30 0 0.18 0.2 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Daily Data For a Month March 1976 Day MaxT MinT AvgT Dprt HDD CDD Pcpn Snow Dpth 1 59 43 51.0 12.7 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 2 43 33 38.0 -0.5 27 0 0.03 0.0 0 3 37 30 33.5 -5.3 31 0 T 0.0 0 4 48 34 41.0 1.9 24 0 0.12 0.0 0 5 75 44 59.5 20.2 5 0 0.02 0.0 0 6 62 35 48.5 8.9 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 7 52 31 41.5 1.7 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 8 42 30 36.0 -4.1 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 9 30 25 27.5 -12.9 37 0 0.28 3.8 0 Looks like extended warmth kicks in starting Monday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 12 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Looks like extended warmth kicks in starting Monday Given the high price of oil and natural gas that might be more of a blessing this year... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 28 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Looks like extended warmth kicks in starting Monday No one wants that right now That can wait until April 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: No one wants that right now That can wait until April Just about everyone wants that right now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 On 3/9/2022 at 7:23 AM, Allsnow said: Yeah looks warm next week but I can see a crappy end to March/start April with blocking forming I think March 29th is the day...it has snowed on that day many more times than the days before and after... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 hours ago, uncle W said: I think March 29th is the day...it has snowed on that day many more times than the days before and after... when I dont remember any snows on that day lol. I remember snow in the first 10 days of April way more than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 3 hours ago, bluewave said: This was the first time between March 1-10 that Newark had measurable snow 2 days after reaching 75°+. The previous record was 3 days set in 1972. 3rd place goes to 1976 which took 4 days. So a continuation of the snow and record warmth close together theme that has become more common here. NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Daily Data For a Month March 2022 Day MaxT MinT AvgT Dprt HDD CDD Pcpn Snow Dpth 1 48 30 39.0 0.7 26 0 T 0.0 0 2 54 40 47.0 8.5 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 3 46 25 35.5 -3.3 29 0 0.06 0.0 0 4 39 20 29.5 -9.6 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 5 46 26 36.0 -3.3 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 6 69 44 56.5 16.9 8 0 0.04 0.0 0 7 76 50 63.0 23.2 2 0 0.01 0.0 0 8 50 38 44.0 3.9 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 9 42 33 37.5 -2.9 27 0 0.60 0.5 0 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Daily Data For a Month March 1972 Day MaxT MinT AvgT Dprt HDD CDD Pcpn Snow Dpth 1 75 42 58.5 20.2 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2 78 58 68.0 29.5 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 3 65 26 45.5 6.7 19 0 0.73 T 0 4 35 20 27.5 -11.6 37 0 T T 0 5 43 27 35.0 -4.3 30 0 0.18 0.2 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Daily Data For a Month March 1976 Day MaxT MinT AvgT Dprt HDD CDD Pcpn Snow Dpth 1 59 43 51.0 12.7 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 2 43 33 38.0 -0.5 27 0 0.03 0.0 0 3 37 30 33.5 -5.3 31 0 T 0.0 0 4 48 34 41.0 1.9 24 0 0.12 0.0 0 5 75 44 59.5 20.2 5 0 0.02 0.0 0 6 62 35 48.5 8.9 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 7 52 31 41.5 1.7 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 8 42 30 36.0 -4.1 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 9 30 25 27.5 -12.9 37 0 0.28 3.8 0 yeah having a warm winter is now no longer a deterrent to having a snowy winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: when I dont remember any snows on that day lol. I remember snow in the first 10 days of April way more than that 1996…1984…1974…1970… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 hour ago, uncle W said: 1996…1984…1974…1970… 1996 was a very special double dip, it snowed in late March and in April. Did any of those other years also have snow in April? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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