dWave Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Multiple brush fires in Central Park, looks like all in northern end of the Park 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This is still nice for our area. It all depends on where the phase occurs. Definitely strong than last run but I feel like the west vs. East spread of ensemble members increased. A large amount take a track much further east. It obviously has a lot of work to do for our area, but all we can ask for is to be in the game, and we are. I only got a half inch for December, so don't need to get much for March to yet again beat December snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 ...actually may be trash fires set that spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: High wind warning forecast soundings behind the departing low. Definately a mutli hazard storm but agree the winds may be the biggest headline. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: High wind warning forecast soundings behind the departing low. I HATE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 25 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I HATE wind. Then your going to hate Saturday/Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 2 hours ago, dWave said: Multiple brush fires in Central Park, looks like all in northern end of the Park somebody on here finally had enough of the low temp readings.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Yep. The op Euro is out to lunch with that one the EPS doesn’t even agree with its own operational, huge red flag right there. That solution makes zero sense, the shortwave amps, no 50/50 low, no -NAO block, +AO, there is nothing to stop it from cutting/inland running. The CMC and as it pains me to say it, the GFS are much closer to reality. The UKMET and ICON are also nothing at all like the op Euro Stop with the Snowman disguise. Your profile name should be one of the following: Snowsucks19, Weenie Police, The Anti Weenie, Warm Wave, OTSman, Cuttersrule19, Snowhole, Ihateweenies Weeniesuck Winter0102 March2001 ....... 1 2 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 24 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Stop with the Snowman disguise. Your profile name should be one of the following: Snowsucks19, Weenie Police, The Anti Weenie, Warm Wave, OTSman, Cuttersrule19, Snowhole, Ihateweenies Weeniesuck Winter0102 March2001 ....... Good evening WG. If it’s a vote contest it will undoubtably need its own thread, stay well, as always …… 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 One last hurrah on Saturday. Very cold Saturday night with temps in the teens and near 0 wind chills. Impressive for mid March. Funny how areas in the south will end up with more snow than us this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Currently 38 here after a high of 43 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Euro folded to the gfs with an inland runner for the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro folded to the gfs with an inland runner for the weekend. Early to say folded but I don't think the weekend storm is our storm, setups like that don't usually do well near the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 46 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro folded to the gfs with an inland runner for the weekend. Fine by me honestly. The well inland areas in PA and NY are tremendously below average for snow this winter. They can have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 17 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Fine by me honestly. The well inland areas in PA and NY are tremendously below average for snow this winter. They can have it. You aren't a true weenie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Named 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Overnight and tomorrow, a storm will bring a cold rain or wet snow to the region tomorrow. Interior sections of southeastern New York across central New England will likely see 1"-3" of snow with some pockets of 3"-6" amounts. Snowfall estimates include: Boston: 1"-3" Bridgeport: 1"-3" Hartford: 1"-3" Islip: 1" or less New York City: 1" or less Newark: 1" or less Philadelphia: 0.5" or less White Plains: 1"-3" Milder conditions will follow in the storm's wake. Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal. There may also be one or two opportunities for at least some measurable snow in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around March 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +16.47 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.002 today. On March 6 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.327 (RMM). The March 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.160 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 73% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.1° (2.3° above normal). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Overnight and tomorrow, a storm will bring a cold rain or wet snow to the region tomorrow. Interior sections of southeastern New York across central New England will likely see 1"-3" of snow with some pockets of 3"-6" amounts. Snowfall estimates include: Boston: 1"-3" Bridgeport: 1"-3" Hartford: 1"-3" Islip: 1" or less New York City: 1" or less Newark: 1" or less Philadelphia: 0.5" or less White Plains: 1"-3" Milder conditions will follow in the storm's wake. Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal. There may also be one or two opportunities for at least some measurable snow in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around March 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +16.47 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.002 today. On March 6 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.327 (RMM). The March 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.160 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 73% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.1° (2.3° above normal). Don, so is the AO going negative for awhile now-- is the NAO also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 9 hours ago, dWave said: Multiple brush fires in Central Park, looks like all in northern end of the Park one of our weather weenies is doing it to clear the stuff around the ASOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 9 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Definitely strong than last run but I feel like the west vs. East spread of ensemble members increased. A large amount take a track much further east. It obviously has a lot of work to do for our area, but all we can ask for is to be in the game, and we are. I only got a half inch for December, so don't need to get much for March to yet again beat December snowfall. December can no longer be considered a winter month, it is the fastest warming month of the year. We really only have two month winters now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 6 hours ago, White Gorilla said: Stop with the Snowman disguise. Your profile name should be one of the following: Snowsucks19, Weenie Police, The Anti Weenie, Warm Wave, OTSman, Cuttersrule19, Snowhole, Ihateweenies Weeniesuck Winter0102 March2001 ....... I vote for Snowhole it's a good description lol Why cant we do a forum vote and the mods can change his name to whatever name wins? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Named huh, whats named? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 16 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: You're not going to be seeing a hot, dry summer anytime soon, if ever with those boiling SSTs offshore. It could be dry for short periods but high dews/storminess will prevail. What's needed to see a 2010 type summer? I guess a strong el nino could do it, the summers after those happened tend to be hot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 15 hours ago, bluewave said: While March 2012 was our warmest March on record, the monthly highest temperature wasn’t that impressive. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of MarClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1945 89 0 2 1998 86 0 - 1990 86 0 3 2021 84 0 - 1985 84 0 - 1977 84 0 4 1989 83 0 - 1986 83 0 5 2016 82 0 - 1938 82 0 6 2020 80 0 - 2011 80 0 - 2007 80 0 - 1962 80 0 - 1946 80 0 7 2012 79 0 - 1968 79 0 - 1963 79 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of MarClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2012 51.3 0 2 1945 50.6 0 3 2016 49.1 0 4 1946 48.8 0 5 1973 48.6 0 6 2010 48.2 0 7 2020 47.9 0 8 2000 47.8 0 9 1977 46.7 0 10 1979 46.2 0 11 2021 45.6 0 I dont think monthly avg temps truly define how hot a month really is. March 1990 easily beats all other Marches for me in hotness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: huh, whats named? Nam'd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 After this weekend we can finally toss this crappy winter in the garbage. Not a disaster thanks to -EPO but solid C- Warm weather (60s & 70s) from mid March onward. Hopefully it stays like that through May. The 80+ weather could wait till late May though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be cloudy. A cold rain and/or wet snow is likely in much of the region. Well north and west of New York City, there could be a 1”-3” snowfall. Elsewhere, 1” or less is likely in the vicinity of New York City and Newark. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 39° Newark: 39° Philadelphia: 43° Following the storm, tomorrow and Friday will be milder days. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 47.5°; 15-Year: 48.1° Newark: 30-Year: 48.5°; 15-Year: 49.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 50.3°; 15-Year: 50.6° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1/29 saved it for me down here. Good storm for the NJ coast and LI. Happy at least many of you near the city overperformed a bit on that one. Was for sure the most fun event of the winter and it was a blast tracking it with you all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Don, so is the AO going negative for awhile now-- is the NAO also? No. The NAO will likely stay positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 43degs.(35/50) or +2. Reached 55 yesterday{midnight} and 47 during the day. Today: 38-40, wind e. to n., rain/mix? from 10am-7pm, 34 by tomorrow AM-clearing up. GFS with 20" of Snow on the 23rd. and a T of 70. The Canadian Trucker's Assoc. has agreed to dump tons of it on the 'CP Snowboard'. The Recurring Rossby Wave Theory output is super cold around here and elsewhere, from 3/21---4/15, with little letups. 41*(65%RH) here at 6am, overcast. (wet snow seen around 10am) 38/39* at Noon. 37* at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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