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March 2022


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6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is still nice for our area. It all depends on where the phase occurs. 

FB_IMG_1646768545367.jpg

Definitely strong than last run but I feel like the west vs. East spread of ensemble members increased. A large amount take a track much further east.

It obviously has a lot of work to do for our area, but all we can ask for is to be in the game, and we are.

I only got a half inch for December, so don't need to get much for March to yet again beat December snowfall.

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Yep. The op Euro is out to lunch with that one the EPS doesn’t even agree with its own operational, huge red flag right there. That solution makes zero sense, the shortwave amps, no 50/50 low, no -NAO block, +AO, there is nothing to stop it from cutting/inland running. The CMC and as it pains me to say it, the GFS are much closer to reality. The UKMET and ICON are also nothing at all like the op Euro

Stop with the Snowman disguise.  Your profile name should be one of the following:

Snowsucks19,

Weenie Police,

The Anti Weenie,

Warm Wave,

OTSman,

Cuttersrule19,

Snowhole, 

Ihateweenies

Weeniesuck

Winter0102 

March2001

....... 

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24 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Stop with the Snowman disguise.  Your profile name should be one of the following:

Snowsucks19,

Weenie Police,

The Anti Weenie,

Warm Wave,

OTSman,

Cuttersrule19,

Snowhole, 

Ihateweenies

Weeniesuck

Winter0102 

March2001

....... 

Good evening WG. If it’s a vote contest it will undoubtably need its own thread, stay well, as always ……

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Overnight and tomorrow, a storm will bring a cold rain or wet snow to the region tomorrow. Interior sections of southeastern New York across central New England will likely see 1"-3" of snow with some pockets of 3"-6" amounts. Snowfall estimates include:

Boston: 1"-3"
Bridgeport: 1"-3"
Hartford: 1"-3"
Islip: 1" or less
New York City: 1" or less
Newark: 1" or less
Philadelphia: 0.5" or less
White Plains: 1"-3"

Milder conditions will follow in the storm's wake.

Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal. There may also be one or two opportunities for at least some measurable snow in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around March 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March.

The SOI was +16.47 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.002 today.

On March 6 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.327 (RMM). The March 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.160 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 73% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.1° (2.3° above normal).

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Overnight and tomorrow, a storm will bring a cold rain or wet snow to the region tomorrow. Interior sections of southeastern New York across central New England will likely see 1"-3" of snow with some pockets of 3"-6" amounts. Snowfall estimates include:

Boston: 1"-3"
Bridgeport: 1"-3"
Hartford: 1"-3"
Islip: 1" or less
New York City: 1" or less
Newark: 1" or less
Philadelphia: 0.5" or less
White Plains: 1"-3"

Milder conditions will follow in the storm's wake.

Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal. There may also be one or two opportunities for at least some measurable snow in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around March 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March.

The SOI was +16.47 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.002 today.

On March 6 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.327 (RMM). The March 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.160 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 73% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.1° (2.3° above normal).

Don, so is the AO going negative for awhile now-- is the NAO also?

 

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9 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Definitely strong than last run but I feel like the west vs. East spread of ensemble members increased. A large amount take a track much further east.

It obviously has a lot of work to do for our area, but all we can ask for is to be in the game, and we are.

I only got a half inch for December, so don't need to get much for March to yet again beat December snowfall.

December can no longer be considered a winter month, it is the fastest warming month of the year.  We really only have two month winters now.

 

 

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6 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

Stop with the Snowman disguise.  Your profile name should be one of the following:

Snowsucks19,

Weenie Police,

The Anti Weenie,

Warm Wave,

OTSman,

Cuttersrule19,

Snowhole, 

Ihateweenies

Weeniesuck

Winter0102 

March2001

....... 

I vote for Snowhole

it's a good description lol

Why cant we do a forum vote and the mods can change his name to whatever name wins?

 

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16 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

You're not going to be seeing a hot, dry summer anytime soon, if ever with those boiling SSTs offshore. 

It could be dry for short periods but high dews/storminess will prevail. 

What's needed to see a 2010 type summer?  I guess a strong el nino could do it, the summers after those happened tend to be hot.  

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15 hours ago, bluewave said:

While March 2012 was our warmest March on record, the monthly highest temperature wasn’t that impressive. 
 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1945 89 0
2 1998 86 0
- 1990 86 0
3 2021 84 0
- 1985 84 0
- 1977 84 0
4 1989 83 0
- 1986 83 0
5 2016 82 0
- 1938 82 0
6 2020 80 0
- 2011 80 0
- 2007 80 0
- 1962 80 0
- 1946 80 0
7 2012 79 0
- 1968 79 0
- 1963 79 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2012 51.3 0
2 1945 50.6 0
3 2016 49.1 0
4 1946 48.8 0
5 1973 48.6 0
6 2010 48.2 0
7 2020 47.9 0
8 2000 47.8 0
9 1977 46.7 0
10 1979 46.2 0
11 2021 45.6 0

I dont think monthly avg temps truly define how hot a month really is.  March 1990 easily beats all other Marches for me in hotness.

 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be cloudy. A cold rain and/or wet snow is likely in much of the region. Well north and west of New York City, there could be a 1”-3” snowfall. Elsewhere, 1” or less is likely in the vicinity of New York City and Newark. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 39°

Newark: 39°

Philadelphia: 43°

Following the storm, tomorrow and Friday will be milder days.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 47.5°; 15-Year: 48.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 48.5°; 15-Year: 49.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 50.3°; 15-Year: 50.6°

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The next 8 days are averaging 43degs.(35/50) or +2.

Reached 55 yesterday{midnight} and 47 during the day.

Today: 38-40,  wind e. to n., rain/mix? from 10am-7pm, 34 by tomorrow AM-clearing up.

GFS with 20" of Snow  on the 23rd. and a T of 70.    The Canadian Trucker's Assoc. has agreed to dump tons of it on the 'CP Snowboard'.

The Recurring Rossby Wave Theory output is super cold around here and elsewhere, from 3/21---4/15, with little letups.

41*(65%RH) here at 6am, overcast.   (wet snow seen around 10am)     38/39* at Noon.      37* at 5pm. 

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