March 2022

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, Doorman said:

 

Could be a decent hit for the western 1/3 rd of our forum.

[Doorman]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Could be a decent hit for the western 1/3 rd of our forum.

happy tracking

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That would be the perfect scenario. 2 snow events to get us to average then let the warmth out!

One day we will repeat the month of March 2012. Difference of course was 2012 Canada was torched allowing for a true month long torch. This year Canada/west has a deep cold supply creating temp volatility.

While March 2012 was our warmest March on record, the monthly highest temperature wasn’t that impressive. 
 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1945	89	0
2	1998	86	0
-	1990	86	0
3	2021	84	0
-	1985	84	0
-	1977	84	0
4	1989	83	0
-	1986	83	0
5	2016	82	0
-	1938	82	0
6	2020	80	0
-	2011	80	0
-	2007	80	0
-	1962	80	0
-	1946	80	0
7	2012	79	0
-	1968	79	0
-	1963	79	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2012	51.3	0
2	1945	50.6	0
3	2016	49.1	0
4	1946	48.8	0
5	1973	48.6	0
6	2010	48.2	0
7	2020	47.9	0
8	2000	47.8	0
9	1977	46.7	0
10	1979	46.2	0
11	2021	45.6	0

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

So more snow with the 10:1 than Kuchera?  Thats a switch

It takes into account the warm surface temps. This would be a gloppy 32-33 degree snow which would be significantly less than 10-1 ratio. 

[matt8204]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

While March 2012 was our warmest March on record, the monthly highest temperature wasn’t that impressive. 
 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1945	89	0
2	1998	86	0
-	1990	86	0
3	2021	84	0
-	1985	84	0
-	1977	84	0
4	1989	83	0
-	1986	83	0
5	2016	82	0
-	1938	82	0
6	2020	80	0
-	2011	80	0
-	2007	80	0
-	1962	80	0
-	1946	80	0
7	2012	79	0
-	1968	79	0
-	1963	79	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2012	51.3	0
2	1945	50.6	0
3	2016	49.1	0
4	1946	48.8	0
5	1973	48.6	0
6	2010	48.2	0
7	2020	47.9	0
8	2000	47.8	0
9	1977	46.7	0
10	1979	46.2	0
11	2021	45.6	0

I remember going to a Devils game on March 23 that year (2012) and thinking how crazy it was to be watching hockey while it was so warm out.  Pretty sure I went to the game in shorts.  I could swear it hit 80 that day but I guess I'm wrong.

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, matt8204 said:

I remember going to a Devils game on March 23 that year (2012) and thinking how crazy it was to be watching hockey while it was so warm out.  Pretty sure I went to the game in shorts.  I could swear it hit 80 that day but I guess I'm wrong.

Yeah, March 2012 was all about consistently above normal temperatures with Newark going +9.2. But there were only 2 daily record high temperatures and the monthly high only reaching 79°. The warm up in late March last year was more impressive with Newark reaching 84°. The most extreme warmth in March 2012 went to our west. International falls was +14.6 for there warmest March. I believe it was the only time that a U.S. station recorded 10 record daily high temperatures in a row. But several of the days were already surpassed in recent years.

International Falls Area, MN
Period of record: 1897-01-15 through 2022-03-07

 

3/13	59 in 2016	55 in 2012	54 in 1995+
3/14	60 in 2016	57 in 2012	54 in 2010+
3/15	65 in 2015	57 in 2012	57 in 2009+
3/16	71 in 2012	58 in 2009	57 in 2003
3/17	77 in 2012	55 in 1968	54 in 2010
3/18	79 in 2012	66 in 1918	57 in 2010
3/19	78 in 2012	60 in 1918	57 in 2021
3/20	64 in 2021	61 in 2012	61 in 1987
3/21	69 in 2012	57 in 2021	56 in 1987
3/22	72 in 2012	62 in 2000	56 in 2003

 

 

[HVSnowLover]

The Saturday storm bears watching for the NW parts of the subforum and since I have Sat mostly off I might storm chase if it comes to fruition. 

[SnoSki14]

56 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

The Saturday storm bears watching for the NW parts of the subforum and since I have Sat mostly off I might storm chase if it comes to fruition. 

That has flash freeze potential

[Snowlover11]

Saturday has my eyes, huge storm signal.  Potential for a snow maker far NW and a Gusty rain storm for the coast perhaps switching over to snow.

[milleand]

15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That has flash freeze potential

What is the timing for Saturday? I have a 6:30am flight out of Newark and I am trying to keep an eye on this system. 

[WarrenCtyWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, March 2012 was all about consistently above normal temperatures with Newark going +9.2. But there were only 2 daily record high temperatures and the monthly high only reaching 79°. The warm up in late March last year was more impressive with Newark reaching 84°. The most extreme warmth in March 2012 went to our west. International falls was +14.6 for there warmest March. I believe it was the only time that a U.S. station recorded 10 record daily high temperatures in a row. But several of the days were already surpassed in recent years.

International Falls Area, MN
Period of record: 1897-01-15 through 2022-03-07

 

3/13	59 in 2016	55 in 2012	54 in 1995+
3/14	60 in 2016	57 in 2012	54 in 2010+
3/15	65 in 2015	57 in 2012	57 in 2009+
3/16	71 in 2012	58 in 2009	57 in 2003
3/17	77 in 2012	55 in 1968	54 in 2010
3/18	79 in 2012	66 in 1918	57 in 2010
3/19	78 in 2012	60 in 1918	57 in 2021
3/20	64 in 2021	61 in 2012	61 in 1987
3/21	69 in 2012	57 in 2021	56 in 1987
3/22	72 in 2012	62 in 2000	56 in 2003

 

 

Allentown also hit 80 that month.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

That has flash freeze potential

How often does that happen?  These post frontal storms often don't work out. 

[BxSnowWx37]

1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said:

Saturday has my eyes, huge storm signal.  Potential for a snow maker far NW and a Gusty rain storm for the coast perhaps switching over to snow.

Yeah most models have us from mod to heavy rain to mod to heavy snow for a while. Depends on how fast the cold can rush in behind. We need the low to keep creeping east,which is seems to be doing. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, BxSnowWx37 said:

Yeah most models have us from mod to heavy rain to mod to heavy snow for a while. Depends on how fast the cold can rush in behind. We need the low to keep creeping east,which is seems to be doing. 

Yup. I wouldn't sleep on this one, especially N and W. 

[HVSnowLover]

12z Euro is quite a weeny run for NW of the city combining tomorrow and Saturday

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

12z Euro is quite a weeny run for NW of the city combining tomorrow and Saturday

Weekend storm trending flatter and east

[HeadInTheClouds]

Like I said, can't sleep on this, especially N and W. 

 

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Like I said, can't sleep on this, especially N and W. 

 

12Z Euro actually has track almost over the BM but it starts out warm due to the airmass. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

12Z Euro actually has track almost over the BM but it starts out warm due to the airmass. 

Yep east of 0z

 

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Like I said, can't sleep on this, especially N and W. 

 

This is too close. If only we had a decent air mass in place.

Can't rule out some snow/accumulation.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is too close. If only we had a decent air mass in place.

Can't rule out some snow/accumulation.

Maybe more than some for places 

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe more than some for places 

If it tracks near the BM it might be low warning level snow for the NW parts of the subforum, this thing is amped. However I would be cautious as Euro is furthest east model right now with this.  

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

If it trends to the BM it might be low warning level snow for the NW parts of the subforum, this thing is amped. However I would be cautious as Euro is furthest east model right now with this.  

The other models aren't that far off. Remember when this was a cutter ?

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is too close. If only we had a decent air mass in place.

Can't rule out some snow/accumulation.

It is but the more N and W you are the better your chances. It all depends on where the low placement is because it's intensifying rapidly and drawing in cold air. It may be too late for most or all of us but that is unknown at this point. 

[EastonSN+]

Nice.

[EastonSN+]

Sooooo close.

[bluewave]

The 12z EPS mean is stronger and further west than the OP.  With such an amped system and no blocking, this could come further west in future runs. The strong winds may be the big story for the coast with such a deep low pressure. 

 

 

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The 12z EPS mean is stronger and further west than the OP.  With such an amped system and no blocking, this could come further west in future runs. The strong winds may be the big story for the coast with such a deep low pressure. 

 

 

Yep. The op Euro is out to lunch with that one the EPS doesn’t even agree with its own operational, huge red flag right there. That solution makes zero sense, the shortwave amps, no 50/50 low, no -NAO block, +AO, there is nothing to stop it from cutting/inland running. The CMC and as it pains me to say it, the GFS are much closer to reality. The UKMET and ICON are also nothing at all like the op Euro

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 12z EPS mean is stronger and further west than the OP.  With such an amped system and no blocking, this could come further west in future runs. The strong winds may be the big story for the coast with such a deep low pressure. 

 

 

This is still nice for our area. It all depends on where the phase occurs. 

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep. The op Euro is out to lunch with that one the EPS doesn’t even agree with its own operational, huge red flag right there. That solution makes zero sense, the shortwave amps, no 50/50 low, no -NAO block, +AO, there is nothing to stop it from cutting/inland running. The CMC and as it pains me to say it, the GFS are much closer to reality. The UKMET and ICON are also nothing at all like the op Euro

Dude nothing is out to lunch 4 days out