wthrmn654 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Wind advisories seem to sorta surround us jersey too the west, parts of the Boston nws area to the east. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 7, 2022 Author Share Posted March 7, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: And now the other models have trended to it. This will be a cold surface event. This bodes now as an advisory event of 3-6” stripe of 8 IF the NAM does not back down more than 0.2”. There will be melting and of course southern edge near NYC May be rain but right now if the 12z/7 has the thermal profile correct it snows and accumulates at 32-34F. Snow always cools air temps to 33-34F. How much NYC. My guess is a sloppy 2. Maybe more? Lots of melting during the day. FGEN drives the max stripe. I’ll check at 6P but think it good to have a thread going. Someone is going to see 4” of wet snow within48 hours of 70F Follow Canadian closely and merge with NAM and EC is my recommendation. Got to run 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 7, 2022 Author Share Posted March 7, 2022 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Either way it’s officially over on 3/20, the equinox will not be denied :-) Officiallyyes. Snow wise. Maybe not?? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 7, 2022 Author Share Posted March 7, 2022 9 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Wind advisories seem to sorta surround us jersey too the west, parts of the Boston nws area to the east. Lol Wind advisory situation looks better New England e LI but can happen anywhere tho am not as lit up as on this coming Saturday afternoon. In the meantime NJ advisory also allows a little leeway on severe calls that are marginal. Point being that awareness is raised for wind damage well in advance. I think a smartnpreparedness move and mnot being restricted by the book rules. Both could miss by 3 MPH but still result in power out and accidents. Got to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 8 minutes ago, wdrag said: Officiallyyes. Snow wise. Maybe not?? Ignore him 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion -- Raised temperatures significantly across Long Island over the next several hours as thin high clouds and relatively light flow have already allowed temperatures to jump into the mid to upper 50s this morning. Ultimately expect further increases to be fairly limited as stronger southerly flow ushers in colder air off the ocean. Elsewhere, raised temperatures across northeast New Jersey and New York city a few degrees as the warm front has lifted north of these locations. Overrunning moisture will allow high clouds to continue to stream into the area this morning as a stationary front begins to lift north as a warm front. A cold front will then approach from the west. With the area warm sectored today, warm conditions are forecast on a rather strong southwesterly flow. Highs should top out in the lower 70s across portions of northeast New Jersey and around 70 for portions of New York City (away from the ocean). If temperatures continue to remain warmer than forecast this morning and/or breaks of sun occur later this morning into the afternoon (currently mostly cloudy conditions are forecast), then even warmer temperatures are possible. Went with the NBM for highs, but its worth noting that NBM 90th percentile shows middle to upper 70s across portions of northeast New Jersey and New York City. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 50 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Exactly but this will be white rain for many unless rates are strong Ptype wise the 12Z RGEM makes more sense...it more indicates the coast is rain but if this ends up as dynamic as the 12z NAM/RGEM show it could be decent snows even at the coast...both show roughly 36/28 spreads when the snow moves in...thats more than enough if you have steady precip this time of year to pile up outside of the pavement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Ptype wise the 12Z RGEM makes more sense...it more indicates the coast is rain but if this ends up as dynamic as the 12z NAM/RGEM show it could be decent snows even at the coast...both show roughly 36/28 spreads when the snow moves in...thats more than enough if you have steady precip this time of year to pile up outside of the pavement Timing will be key too-don't want it b/w 9am and 3pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Dang it, oh well gotten less sunnier and the slightest puffs of the water at times. Though it maybe more sporadic puffs abs short puffs as there's still flat calm patches behind the ripples lol dumb moody weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 I mentioned on friday night that this had my attention because GGEM was showing it, and of course Walt has been all over it. But many people are going to be surprised if this happens because very have been talking about it. March of course is a crazy month where snowstorms can sneak up on you at the last minute, although GGEM would certainly deserve a lot of credit for advertising this pretty early. Have to take it seriously now that NAM is showing it too. Obviously it would be difficult to accumulate on pavement after warm temps and with borderline temps during the storm, but it certainly could end up being like the February snow event where we got a few inches on colder surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 As for us that live near the urban core: from experience, with borderline temps in March (espec if this is during the day) it REALLY needs to come down in order for snow to accumulate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 CMC/Rgem has been showing this for days and have been very consistent when no other model wanted anything to do with it. They also did the best with the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 I know the UKMET has been terrible this winter, but now it is showing several inches of snow too. Seems as if most models are jumping aboard now. Will see if Euro does at 1pm too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 The timing stinks with this given marginal air mass. Obvious stat padder, wouldn't be surprised if it's just white rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The timing stinks with this given marginal air mass. Obvious stat padder, wouldn't be surprised if it's just white rain. Places just to the north and west and southwest with a little elevation can definitely see a few inches especially where banding sets up. In the city I would agree with the white rain idea however the outer boroughs could see accumulations. With ocean temperatures in the low 40’s I would strongly agree that LI could see accumulations as well. As Walt said there will likely be minimal accumulation on paved surfaces. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The timing stinks with this given marginal air mass. Obvious stat padder, wouldn't be surprised if it's just white rain. It could end up being a repeat of the February snow event where it didn't accumulate much on pavement but we got a few inches on grass and car tops. That was a beautiful wintry scene too, so I would be happy if we can pull that off again. This is probably our last chance of snow with the March pattern looking warm, so I'm rooting for this to happen. Hopefully it will be more than just white rain. The latest model runs are encouraging but of course we'll get a much better idea tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Already at the record of 75° at Newark. Newark Liberty CLOUDY 75 54 47 SW25G36 29.70F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Yet another cold fail from the long range models…. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 50 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The timing stinks with this given marginal air mass. Obvious stat padder, wouldn't be surprised if it's just white rain. Agree except for colder surfaces 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 warmer today in the city then yesterday which is a surprise.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 58 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The timing stinks with this given marginal air mass. Obvious stat padder, wouldn't be surprised if it's just white rain. Extremely marginal airmass, occurs during the day, 2nd week of March, light to marginal rates, very low ratios, those 10:1 ratio maps are junk, take the under….. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 47 minutes ago, bluewave said: Already at the record of 75° at Newark. Newark Liberty CLOUDY 75 54 47 SW25G36 29.70F Can confirm, I’m right near Newark and it feels like early June. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Can confirm, I’m right near Newark and it feels like early June. only 47 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Can confirm, I’m right near Newark and it feels like early June. EWR has reached as high as 76 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: only 47 here. BRB moving to Hyde Park. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 The record warmth is allowing the LLJ to mix down in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 LGA 74 JFK 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Euro is .27 snow at LGA but again taking those numbers verbatim is iffy..the Euro does indicate rates may be high enough but its also a whisker away from being amped enough its all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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