wthrmn654 Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: no rain at all is far preferable....honestly, who needs or wants rain? I'd much rather have heat and dry heat at that Omg that was 8 posts in a row, you can't argue its busy here now so why not embrace multipost? Resistance is futile 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 54 minutes ago, wdrag said: 4 consecutive runs of 1-7” snow accum for our sub forum. Again and again, if the GGEM doesn’t have snow, very difficult to get anything. If EC continues 00z/5 trend then I think we’re in a good place for a minor to moderate 9 to 12 hour event part of the area though lots of melting on pavement w temps 32-33F. Wetter snow. Early, but GGEM is our only real legit hope next 10 days. Disappointing outcomes this past Tue eve and Wed night. It’s late. I’d like to get past 20” for the winter in Wantage. have a day! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 The CMC is now in a universe all to its own for Wednesday, none of the other models (Euro, GFS, UKMET, ICON) have it 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 38 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The CMC is now in a universe all to its own for Wednesday, none of the other models (Euro, GFS, UKMET, ICON) have it CMC is now considered second best model but I agree I won't buy in at all until at least some other models show support. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Sunday into Monday looks like a classic early spring warm up that favors areas away from the shore. 65-70 for the warm spots on Sunday. Then 70-75 away from the shore on Monday. Very strong onshore flow Monday with 40-50 mph gusts ahead of the cold front for Long Island. We’ll see if we can get a decent low topped squall line for later on Monday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 The Euro did jump over 500 miles east from 12Z Yesterday to 12Z today so not unfathomable the CMC type solution could verify if you compromised the two solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 The weakening MJO may have reduced the chances of transitioning to an El Niño. So looks like another active hurricane season coming up.The La Niña background state has been very persistent since 16-17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: The weakening MJO may have reduced the chances of transitioning to an El Niño. So looks like another active hurricane season coming up.The La Niña background state has been very persistent since 16-17. Additionally Atlantic SSTs are very positive. Another tropical threat or two seems very likely this season with strong SE ridge Severe weather season will be active too 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 36 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Additionally Atlantic SSTs are very positive. Another tropical threat or two seems very likely this season with strong SE ridge Severe weather season will be active too The La Niña background state and that record warm pool keep the persistent SE Ridge pattern going this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 keep hope alive...... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 14 minutes ago, Doorman said: keep hope alive...... Yes, looks crippling over the next 10 days on the most severely cold biased, inaccurate model we have: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2022030518&fh=246&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 20 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yes, looks crippling over the next 10 days on the most severely cold biased, inaccurate model we have: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2022030518&fh=246&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Dude stop your trolling Cmc also shows some snow 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Tomorrow and Monday will provide an early preview of spring. Tomorrow will likely see numerous near record and record high temperatures. Select daily records for tomorrow include: Atlantic City: 68°, 1959 and 2004 Baltimore: 76°, 1935 New York City-JFK: 63°, 2004 New York City-LGA: 64°, 1976 New York City-Central Park: 68°, 1935 Newark: 69°, 1935 Philadelphia: 71°, 1935 Trenton: 71°, 1894 Afterward, readings could cool, but remain above seasonable levels until after March 10th. Then, there is growing model consensus that a noticeably colder pattern could develop. The development and duration of such a pattern remain somewhat uncertain. Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal. There may also be one or two opportunities for at least some measurable snow in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around February 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least late March. The SOI was +19.39 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.317 today. On March 3 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.161 (RMM). The March 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.314 (RMM). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 8 hours ago, wthrmn654 said: Omg that was 8 posts in a row, you can't argue its busy here now so why not embrace multipost? Resistance is futile 7 lol I counted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 5 hours ago, bluewave said: The weakening MJO may have reduced the chances of transitioning to an El Niño. So looks like another active hurricane season coming up.The La Niña background state has been very persistent since 16-17. which is confusing-- shouldnt we have fewer la ninas with climate change? why doesn't the entire pacific heat up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 13 hours ago, gravitylover said: No, no rain would be terrible. After a relatively dry last 7 months we need the water. There's very little snowmelt going to go into the reservoirs and those of us that live with wells also need it. Drought sucks and it can be worse than too wet. No I just mean a break from the rain for like 2 weeks and not this 4 rainstorms in 2 weeks. I would like to see the kind of rainfall pattern we had in the 80s, which was something like 3-4 inches of rain per month total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 12 hours ago, bluewave said: The SE Ridge or WAR has been the dominant player since the record breaking event in December 2015. So we have seen both record warmth and record snowstorms over this period. But no sustained cold with the last 7 winters coming in with above normal temperatures. The record warm pool was found to really enhance the snowfall and storm intensity in events like the January 2016 blizzard and December 2020 interior jackpot snowstorm. We just needed blocking to force the storm track to our SE for a cold enough for snow solution. Then of course the question becomes why have we had a persistent lack of blocking this winter-- what caused the +AO/+NAO to be so persistent this year? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 47 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Then of course the question becomes why have we had a persistent lack of blocking this winter-- what caused the +AO/+NAO to be so persistent this year? the AO/NAO was so positive after mid December it's a miracle NYC got 17-20" and an 8-10" storm this year... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 27 minutes ago, uncle W said: the AO/NAO was so positive after mid December it's a miracle NYC got 17-20" and an 8-10" storm this year... PNA rules over everything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: PNA rules over everything we have seen big storms with a neg pna and neg ao/nao...Feb 69 and Dec 2010 come to mind...nice to have the pna/nao/ao all in favorable like Jan 1996 but its not always that good... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 6, 2022 Author Share Posted March 6, 2022 9 hours ago, snowman19 said: The CMC is now in a universe all to its own for Wednesday, none of the other models (Euro, GFS, UKMET, ICON) have it We will know shortly. The GFS should start coming around as the 18z/5 EC shifted a bit west in the central Apps. I know the RGEM at 00z/6 is on target with a northeast moving pcpn system -which suggests to me a 6th consecutive 1-7" for the GGEM is upcoming. I just have to go with the best models and those are the EC/GGEM combo. IF GGEM dumps it, then one more 12z/6 cycle to get back on track. I am also watching Saranac Lake for little or no snow GGEM/RGEM Monday afternoon vs the EC and GFS. Always a learning experience. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 Anyone care to interpret this output? Don't let smoke come out of your ears while you try. After all, it is the 18Z Run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 1 hour ago, uncle W said: the AO/NAO was so positive after mid December it's a miracle NYC got 17-20" and an 8-10" storm this year... really 12-14" for eastern parts of the city and over here. and 21-26" seasonal snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: Dude stop your trolling Cmc also shows some snow Well, well, well…..and the CMC starts its fold….total snowfall for the next 10 days: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2022030600&fh=240&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 46degs.(38/54) or +5. Reached 46 yesterday at midnight. Was 45 during PM. Today: 59-62 or 67?, wind s. to sw., breezy at times, cloudy and PM drizzle, 55 by tomorrow AM. GFS tries to squeeze a 10" snowfall between 60 degree periods. Now you know where the removed vodka went-----NOAA programmers. 48*(82%RH) here at 6am. 50* at 9am. 56* at Noon. 58* at 1pm, variable. 65* at 3pm.---held for about 2hrs.+. 62* at 6pm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 40 here & overcast as of 7AM. NWS has depicted temps near 65 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 And the models have backed way off the “extreme cold” and snow pattern for the east that was being hyped for mid-month. As we draw closer in time, they are correcting much stronger with the SE ridge after being way too aggressive with squashing it in the long range 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 11 hours ago, LibertyBell said: which is confusing-- shouldnt we have fewer la ninas with climate change? why doesn't the entire pacific heat up? The Western Pacific has warmed faster than the Eastern Pacific. So this increases the trade winds which keep the La Niña background state going. Remember how the developing El Niño suddenly reversed around Labor Day in 2012? Then the next El Niño in 14-15 came in weaker than forecast before rebounding to super El Niño in 15-16. The 18-19 El Niño never fully coupled with the atmosphere due to the record SSTs in the WPAC. https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2019/06/24/pacific-ocean-cold-tongue/Thus the real-world cold tongue warms less than the waters over the tropical west Pacific or off the equator to the north and south. This pattern of sea-surface temperature change then causes the trade winds to strengthen, which lifts the cold subsurface water upward, further cooling the cold tongue. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy and warm today High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60 in most of the region and 70s in southeastern Pennsylvania. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 66° Newark: 68° Philadelphia: 71° Near record and record warmth is likely tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 46.6°; 15-Year: 47.1° Newark: 30-Year: 47.7°; 15-Year: 48.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 49.3°; 15-Year: 49.6° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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