March 2022

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Yesss I wonder if that would be anything like Feb 1921 but all snow that would be AMAZING.

Look up Feb 1921....there was 4.5" of total precip over 3 days, 18" of it was snow, the rest was a mix.

 

you're thinking Feb 1920...but there was a storm in Feb 1921 that rivals the big ones...heavy wet snow and sleet accumulated 12"...very low 5 to 1 ratio storm...

[coastalplainsnowman]

B- here.  Just based on total snowfall and average temperatures it would be a C, but it's tough to give any winter on the south shore of LI a C when we've had a 15+" snowstorm and solid winter weather for all of January. 

Compared to N&W, where expectations and averages are higher, yet the snow totals were lower, the Ds and Cs I'm seeing are justified there.

[cleetussnow]

This winter is a C- minus here.  1 single snowblower storm of middling interest that's it.  If we got a blockbuster in northeast this month, even if it mostly misses IMBY, well I will reconsider.  This was a not a total skunk winter, but rather a high-end "ratter."  

[MJO812]

C - for me

Crappy December and February 

[Brian5671]

About 26 inches here.   Hoping for one more moderate event.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

There have only been 7 storms in NYC to produce 4” or more of snow between 3-16 and 3-31 since 1991. A strong -NAO and +PNA is important. So you can see how this composite looks different from the current forecast pattern. 
 

NYC 7 snowstorm composite of 4”+ 3-16 to 3-31 since 1991

 

BTW, good call on doubting the staying power of that cold shot next weekend. Also looks like that cold shot moderates and may not be as cold as what was being shown by the models back on Mon/Tues. By 3/16 we are into another warm pattern, looks like the SE ridge pumps right back up due to lack of a -NAO and the AK ridge retrogrades to the Bering Sea 

 

[bluewave]

It’s always challenging to restart a snowy pattern once it shuts off. This winter was a one month wonder for snowfall in January. The SE Ridge became too dominant in February. Last year had the great February snowfall pattern that quickly reversed for March. 19-20 didn’t have any snowy intervals. 18-19 had the snowy November and the snowfall didn’t restart until March. 17-18 needed a major SSW to restart the snowy pattern in March following the snowy late December to early January. Snowfall in 16-17 was pretty evenly distributed despite the record 40° winter average temperature. 15-16 had the record snows from late January into early February before the snowy pattern reversed. 

[MJO812]

43 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

About 26 inches here.   Hoping for one more moderate event.

Same

Praying for more snow

Spring is boring 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

B- here.  Just based on total snowfall and average temperatures it would be a C, but it's tough to give any winter on the south shore of LI a C when we've had a 15+" snowstorm and solid winter weather for all of January. 

Compared to N&W, where expectations and averages are higher, yet the snow totals were lower, the Ds and Cs I'm seeing are justified there.

Well NW and up the Hudson Valley I’d give it an F. Albany has 24” and their season average is in the low 60s. Highly doubt they come close to making that gap up. That’s a disaster for them. Scranton is still under 20” so an F there as well. 

[Rtd208]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Same

Praying for more snow

Spring is boring 

April and October are the most boring weather months of the year IMO. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

April and October are the most boring weather months of the year IMO. 

Yes

No severe weather 

[Rtd208]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Yes

No severe weather 

Obviously there have been exceptions. 

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

BTW, good call on doubting the staying power of that cold shot next weekend. Also looks like that cold shot moderates and may not be as cold as what was being shown by the models back on Mon/Tues. By 3/16 we are into another warm pattern, looks like the SE ridge pumps right back up due to lack of a -NAO and the AK ridge retrogrades to the Bering Sea 

Tough to bet against the SE Ridge with the record SSTs off the East Coast. 
 

 

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Tough to bet against the SE Ridge with the record SSTs off the East Coast. 
 

 

Yep, those warm SSTs are a blessing and a curse. We get pounded by the coastal storms but the ridge also gets amplified. 

[Doorman]

 from cutter to coastal....just like that

We will snow next weekend !!!!  

[MJO812]

34 minutes ago, Doorman said:

 from cutter to coastal....just like that

We will snow next weekend !!!!  

That's our best bet 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Tough to bet against the SE Ridge with the record SSTs off the East Coast. 
 

 

Epo will be favorable going forward

Looks like a cold month in store

[Doorman]

 Benchmark .....get ready for a fun week of tracking 

[HVSnowLover]

I think maybe we can move from bantering mode back to tracking mode by late next week.  

[MJO812]

33 minutes ago, Doorman said:

 Benchmark .....get ready for a fun week of tracking 

Just need a good track. There will be enough cold air around. 

[MJO812]

Snowman19 can shove his weenies 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Epo will be favorable going forward

Looks like a cold month in store

Who cares if the EPO is favorable if there's no Atlantic blocking. It just means the cold gets dumped west as the SE ridge amplifies. 

Also cold month? I see a couple 70+ days ahead and then seasonal to AN afterwards with a couple colder days mixed in.

The Atlantic blocking & +PNA shown was just a headfake and transitory. Also I'm not sure what Doorman is smoking. How will that lead to a coastal track exactly? 

There's no blocking to force the low to the coast. There's a better chance on the 9th. CMC has a little snow with it 

[HVSnowLover]

32 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Who cares if the EPO is favorable if there's no Atlantic blocking. It just means the cold gets dumped west as the SE ridge amplifies. 

Also cold month? I see a couple 70+ days ahead and then seasonal to AN afterwards with a couple colder days mixed in.

The Atlantic blocking & +PNA shown was just a headfake and transitory. Also I'm not sure what Doorman is smoking. How will that lead to a coastal track exactly? 

There's no blocking to force the low to the coast. There's a better chance on the 9th. CMC has a little snow with it 

Dont need sustained cold for snow, just need to thread a needle and get lucky. 

[bluewave]

Sunday looks like 65-70° for the warm spots. Monday corrected even warmer to 70°+away from the shore. So these warm up days continue to be more impressive than the few cool days like today. 

 

[Intensewind002]

I’d give this winter a B at home mostly because I got 22” of snow in the blizzard and an D- here in albany because the sleet storm was interesting. I’m honestly sick of the cold though after walking to class every day for a month on this frigid windy ass campus

[SnoSki14]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Sunday looks like 65-70° for the warm spots. Monday corrected even warmer to 70°+away from the shore. So these warm up days continue to be more impressive than the few cool days like today. 

 

Looks like a real cold March coming up.

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like a real cold March coming up.

You seriously don't look at the models 

[CIK62]

JB says that March 12-13, 1993 is a good analog for upcoming period.

That was a Triple Phase starting in the GOM.       Models of the day could not get the deep southeast tip of the cold and snow----but did get the overall idea right 120hrs. in advance.       I do not see even a double phase?

I remember leaving work that Friday and going to the supermarket immediately.       NYC had about 12" but got into the dry slot.        Other spots north and west were 20"-40".      Pressures were near a record and 60-70mph gusts were common.    The Deep South had 3"-10"-----a decades worth for them.

Here is the GFSens.  for the upcoming period snow wise:        The mean has been rising from run to run while the Control has been everywhere.

   

[LoboLeader1]

34 here as of 4PM, after topping out at 36 earlier today.

[jm1220]

49 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

JB says that March 12-13, 1993 is a good analog for upcoming period.

That was a Triple Phase starting in the GOM.       Models of the day could not get the deep southeast tip of the cold and snow----but did get the overall idea right 120hrs. in advance.       I do not see even a double phase?

I remember leaving work that Friday and going to the supermarket immediately.       NYC had about 12" but got into the dry slot.        Other spots north and west were 20"-40".      Pressures were near a record and 60-70mph gusts were common.    The Deep South had 3"-10"-----a decades worth for them.

Here is the GFSens.  for the upcoming period snow wise:        The mean has been rising from run to run while the Control has been everywhere.

   

Until something gets to within 72-96hrs take it with a big dose of suspicion. The situation with the AO/NAO may improve somewhat but still not ideal so we have the same risk of too progressive or too amped. We have plenty of cold nearby but there's the risk it gets mistimed between storms. The wavelengths are shortening now so we may luck out regardless. Bluewave/Don I'm sure will have good stats to describe our odds in this upcoming pattern. 

I'll be looking forward to the warmth on Sun/Mon even though rain comes with it. If the snow's done, last thing I want are more pointless cold shots. Let's just warm up and be done. Hopefully the backdoors aren't too frequent this spring unlike the last few.