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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Those 1982 to 1994 Arctic outbreaks were focused south and west of NYC. The airports in DC and Philly also made it to -5 or colder. So there was a very sharp temperature gradient near the Hudson River. 

 

Time Series Summary for WASHINGTON REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT, VA - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1982 -5 0
2 1994 -4 0
- 1985 -4 0



 

Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1984 -7 0
- 1982 -7 0
3 1985 -6 0
4 1994 -5 0


 

Time Series Summary for ALLENTOWN LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, PA - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1994 -15 0
2 1961 -12 0
3 1984 -11 0
- 1942 -11 0
4 1954 -10 1
5 1985 -9 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1934 -14 0
2 1985 -8 0
- 1933 -8 0
4 1982 -7 0
- 1943 -7 0

In general though it just seems like it is no longer possible for NYC itself to get below -2 since it's been many decades since that's happened.

What I find amazing is that NYC even reached -1 on Christmas morning 1980 and December has historically been a difficult month (in recent history anyway) for NYC to get to single digits, let alone below zero.

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Only a few days between a snow squall warning and severe thunderstorm warning and possible tornado in PA.

 

 

 

 

There was no snow squall warning in effect for Schuylkill Cty at the time of the terrible multiple vehicle crash on I81 on Monday morning.  Due to the distance between the radar stations situated in this region weather radars cannot see below 9000 feet in that location.  The squall was low topped so it was underneath the radar beam.  A similar scenario played out in February in that area of PA.  I was out in the Scranton region on that day (I drove south on I81 and then onto I476 to the south of there.  Elevations range up 2000 ft in that vicinity.  The roads had been brined or were dry.  Temperatures ranged from 21 to 25 depending on altitude.  Penndot had signage posted on the electronic equipment about the potential snow squall hazard.  I encountered snow flurries and showers on my drive.  This squall that caused the accident was apparently in a narrow streamer that reached SE down to the Philadelphia area.  This has been a recurring problem in east central PA and I hope they decide to increase radar coverage in that area.

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

In general though it just seems like it is no longer possible for NYC itself to get below -2 since it's been many decades since that's happened.

What I find amazing is that NYC even reached -1 on Christmas morning 1980 and December has historically been a difficult month (in recent history anyway) for NYC to get to single digits, let alone below zero.

NYC had no below zero days from 1944-1960...1995-2015...

since 1960...

-2 1961

-2 1963

-1 in 1968

-1 in 1976

-2 in 1977

-1 in 1980

-2 in 1985

-2 in 1994

-1 in 2016

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43 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

There was no snow squall warning in effect for Schuylkill Cty at the time of the terrible multiple vehicle crash on I81 on Monday morning.  Due to the distance between the radar stations situated in this region weather radars cannot see below 9000 feet in that location.  The squall was low topped so it was underneath the radar beam.  A similar scenario played out in February in that area of PA.  I was out in the Scranton region on that day (I drove south on I81 and then onto I476 to the south of there.  Elevations range up 2000 ft in that vicinity.  The roads had been brined or were dry.  Temperatures ranged from 21 to 25 depending on altitude.  Penndot had signage posted on the electronic equipment about the potential snow squall hazard.  I encountered snow flurries and showers on my drive.  This squall that caused the accident was apparently in a narrow streamer that reached SE down to the Philadelphia area.  This has been a recurring problem in east central PA and I hope they decide to increase radar coverage in that area.

I remember tracking storms growing up in eastern PA and dealing with a lack of good radar data once they crossed the Susquehanna until they were almost on top of us in the Lehigh Valley, especially if they were approaching from the NW. It's an underrated radar hole, especially when you consider that the areas impacted are quite populated and growing rapidly.

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1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

There was no snow squall warning in effect for Schuylkill Cty at the time of the terrible multiple vehicle crash on I81 on Monday morning.  Due to the distance between the radar stations situated in this region weather radars cannot see below 9000 feet in that location.  The squall was low topped so it was underneath the radar beam.  A similar scenario played out in February in that area of PA.  I was out in the Scranton region on that day (I drove south on I81 and then onto I476 to the south of there.  Elevations range up 2000 ft in that vicinity.  The roads had been brined or were dry.  Temperatures ranged from 21 to 25 depending on altitude.  Penndot had signage posted on the electronic equipment about the potential snow squall hazard.  I encountered snow flurries and showers on my drive.  This squall that caused the accident was apparently in a narrow streamer that reached SE down to the Philadelphia area.  This has been a recurring problem in east central PA and I hope they decide to increase radar coverage in that area.

A warning probably wouldn’t have made much of a difference. Many people just ignore them anyway. We have seen how many people drive their cars into flash floods with or without specific warnings. Cars and trucks were maintaining their speed without slowing down when they encountered the squall. 

https://www.inquirer.com/weather/snow-squall-pennsylvania-81-philadelphia-weather-20220329.html

The squall, part of what Martin called an eight-hour siege, blew up a bit sooner than forecasters expected and in advance of the “main event” squalls in the afternoon. The weather service didn’t issue a warning for it. It likely wouldn’t have made much difference: A squall might be so short-lived that it’s over by the time a warning is issued. And the ones on Monday were “small … in and out in a couple of minutes,” he said. “You can’t get a lot of lead time with something like that.”

Radar hole?

It is uncertain whether it was a factor in terms of advance notice, but AccuWeather’s Walker said the accident site is not well-observed by radar. It is on the outer edge of radar ranges, since it is about equidistant from the weather service devices operated by the offices in Mount Holly, State College, and Binghamton, N.Y. Monday’s squalls had low cloud tops, and they might have eluded the radar peripheries.

The human factor

John Blickley, an official with the Schuylkill County emergency management agency, said he was amazed at how many of the vehicles appeared to be maintaining their speeds despite the blizzardlike conditions.

“I think there are some people who are naturally oblivious,” said Pennsylvania State Police Trooper David Beohm.

 

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16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A warning probably wouldn’t have made much of a difference. Many people just ignore them anyway. We have seen how many people drive their cars into flash floods with or without specific warnings. Cars and trucks were maintaining their speed without slowing down when they encountered the squall. 

https://www.inquirer.com/weather/snow-squall-pennsylvania-81-philadelphia-weather-20220329.html

The squall, part of what Martin called an eight-hour siege, blew up a bit sooner than forecasters expected and in advance of the “main event” squalls in the afternoon. The weather service didn’t issue a warning for it. It likely wouldn’t have made much difference: A squall might be so short-lived that it’s over by the time a warning is issued. And the ones on Monday were “small … in and out in a couple of minutes,” he said. “You can’t get a lot of lead time with something like that.”

Radar hole?

It is uncertain whether it was a factor in terms of advance notice, but AccuWeather’s Walker said the accident site is not well-observed by radar. It is on the outer edge of radar ranges, since it is about equidistant from the weather service devices operated by the offices in Mount Holly, State College, and Binghamton, N.Y. Monday’s squalls had low cloud tops, and they might have eluded the radar peripheries.

The human factor

John Blickley, an official with the Schuylkill County emergency management agency, said he was amazed at how many of the vehicles appeared to be maintaining their speeds despite the blizzardlike conditions.

“I think there are some people who are naturally oblivious,” said Pennsylvania State Police Trooper David Beohm.

 

The argument made by the Met from State College strikes me as being lame.  Six people dead and millions of dollars of property damage.  But the snow squall was short lived so no warning was necessary - really?  Many tornadoes are short lived however warnings are issued once rotation is detected in the atmosphere.  How many of those warnings verify?  I don’t disagree with the issuance of tornado warnings under these circumstances BTW.  In any case there is definitely a problem with how this threat was addressed (or not) by all parties involved.

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We have experienced a very impressive squall line out here tonight.  This feature would match up very well with one we could experience in the warm season.  We have had continuous lightning and thunder for over an hour now.  Rain total is up to 1.07”.  My Tempest has recorded 754 lightning strikes in the past three hours within 30 miles.  This is really impressive stuff for March!

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A warmer than normal March is now concluding. Despite an exceptional cold shot that was among the most significant cold shots this late in the season in nearly 40 years, March saw the temperature in Central Park average 45.3° or 2.5° above normal.

A line of strong thunderstorms was pressing eastward at 10 pm. Parts of the area will likely experience a severe thunderstorm with damaging winds, hail, and heavy downpours.

Tomorrow will see any early clouds give way to partly sunny skies. It will be somewhat cooler.

It is possible that New York City's Central Park has seen its last freeze of the season. Overall, April could wind up near to somewhat above normal overall in the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April.

The SOI was +6.17 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.562 today.

On March 29 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.670 (RMM). The March 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.596 (RMM).

 

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4 hours ago, Tatamy said:

There was no snow squall warning in effect for Schuylkill Cty at the time of the terrible multiple vehicle crash on I81 on Monday morning.  Due to the distance between the radar stations situated in this region weather radars cannot see below 9000 feet in that location.  The squall was low topped so it was underneath the radar beam.  A similar scenario played out in February in that area of PA.  I was out in the Scranton region on that day (I drove south on I81 and then onto I476 to the south of there.  Elevations range up 2000 ft in that vicinity.  The roads had been brined or were dry.  Temperatures ranged from 21 to 25 depending on altitude.  Penndot had signage posted on the electronic equipment about the potential snow squall hazard.  I encountered snow flurries and showers on my drive.  This squall that caused the accident was apparently in a narrow streamer that reached SE down to the Philadelphia area.  This has been a recurring problem in east central PA and I hope they decide to increase radar coverage in that area.

whats the solution to this-- do they need to place radar sites on mountain tops and/or ridge tops?

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

A warning probably wouldn’t have made much of a difference. Many people just ignore them anyway. We have seen how many people drive their cars into flash floods with or without specific warnings. Cars and trucks were maintaining their speed without slowing down when they encountered the squall. 

https://www.inquirer.com/weather/snow-squall-pennsylvania-81-philadelphia-weather-20220329.html

The squall, part of what Martin called an eight-hour siege, blew up a bit sooner than forecasters expected and in advance of the “main event” squalls in the afternoon. The weather service didn’t issue a warning for it. It likely wouldn’t have made much difference: A squall might be so short-lived that it’s over by the time a warning is issued. And the ones on Monday were “small … in and out in a couple of minutes,” he said. “You can’t get a lot of lead time with something like that.”

Radar hole?

It is uncertain whether it was a factor in terms of advance notice, but AccuWeather’s Walker said the accident site is not well-observed by radar. It is on the outer edge of radar ranges, since it is about equidistant from the weather service devices operated by the offices in Mount Holly, State College, and Binghamton, N.Y. Monday’s squalls had low cloud tops, and they might have eluded the radar peripheries.

The human factor

John Blickley, an official with the Schuylkill County emergency management agency, said he was amazed at how many of the vehicles appeared to be maintaining their speeds despite the blizzardlike conditions.

“I think there are some people who are naturally oblivious,” said Pennsylvania State Police Trooper David Beohm.

 

How about a more extreme solution- simply close the highway and set up roadblocks with state troopers?  Force people to stop driving until the squall passes, they will just have to sit there in their cars.

When human beings are this stupid, they need to lose their rights to make these decisions.

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11 hours ago, Tatamy said:

The argument made by the Met from State College strikes me as being lame.  Six people dead and millions of dollars of property damage.  But the snow squall was short lived so no warning was necessary - really?  Many tornadoes are short lived however warnings are issued once rotation is detected in the atmosphere.  How many of those warnings verify?  I don’t disagree with the issuance of tornado warnings under these circumstances BTW.  In any case there is definitely a problem with how this threat was addressed (or not) by all parties involved.

The issue of radar coverage gaps across the US has been known for years. Most of the time the issue comes up in the event of tornadoes. Tornadoes require a long enough lead time for people to get to safety. So issuing warnings for rotating storms is a good practice to give a long enough lead time in the event action needs to be taken. I am sure the local NWS meteorologists would like more radar sites in their forecast zones. The point of the article  that I posted is that traffic was moving too quickly for the low visibility and slick road conditions.The local NWS forecast mentioned that there would be snow squalls in the area. Hazardous road conditions whether warned or not often lead drivers to make poor decisions. We probably need a better education campaign on how drivers can avoid these pitfalls. While the story below pertains to flooding, the same can be said about ice and snow. 
 

https://theconversation.com/why-do-people-try-to-drive-through-floodwater-or-leave-it-too-late-to-flee-psychology-offers-some-answers-157577

While playing in or driving through flood waters are avoidable risks, the latter involve adults who generally know the risks – much to the frustration of emergency authorities. So what convinces people make risky decisions in a flood? 

Drivers in our study reported that they saw a majority of people in other vehicles (about 64%) driving through the floodwater, while only 2% were turning around. 

Seeing others do something often leaves people with the impression this behaviour is typical and relatively safe, an effect known as “normalcy bias”.

In 15% of cases we studied, passengers also put pressure on drivers to cross.

When things go wrong, they can go very wrong

Another key reason involves prior experience and perceived probability of adverse outcomes. While 9% reported a negative outcome (such damage to their car or having to be rescued), 91% reported proceeding without any incident. 

The reasons for these crossings were not sudden or impulsive, but often involved what the person saw as “careful consideration” of everyday needs — such as the need to get to work or buy groceries. 

This presents an obvious challenge for emergency authorities. While most people succeed without issues, the cases where something goes wrong can be catastrophic and in some cases fatal.

So, how do we convey the very real risks of floodwater? How do we highlight the need for people to prepare an evacuation plan and avoid entering floodwater?


 

 

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Several of our stations just missed a top 10 warmest March due to the Arctic outbreak at the end of the month. ISP tied with last year. Notice how many recent years have seen top 10 warmest Marches.

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2012 47.3 0
2 2016 45.5 0
3 2010 45.1 0
4 1973 44.9 0
5 2020 44.8 0
6 1977 43.4 0
7 2000 43.2 0
8 1995 42.9 0
9 1991 42.7 0
10 1979 42.6 0
11 2022 42.4 0
- 2021 42.4 0

 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The issue of radar coverage gaps across the US has been known for years. Most of the time the issue comes up in the event of tornadoes. Tornadoes require a long enough lead time for people to get to safety. So issuing warnings for rotating storms is a good practice to give a long enough lead time in the event action needs to be taken. I am sure the local NWS meteorologists would like more radar sites in their forecast zones. The point of the article  that I posted is that traffic was moving too quickly for the low visibility and slick road conditions.The local NWS forecast mentioned that there would be snow squalls in the area. Hazardous road conditions whether warned or not often lead drivers to make poor decisions. We probably need a better education campaign on how drivers can avoid these pitfalls. While the story below pertains to flooding, the same can be said about ice and snow. 
 

https://theconversation.com/why-do-people-try-to-drive-through-floodwater-or-leave-it-too-late-to-flee-psychology-offers-some-answers-157577

While playing in or driving through flood waters are avoidable risks, the latter involve adults who generally know the risks – much to the frustration of emergency authorities. So what convinces people make risky decisions in a flood? 

Drivers in our study reported that they saw a majority of people in other vehicles (about 64%) driving through the floodwater, while only 2% were turning around. 

Seeing others do something often leaves people with the impression this behaviour is typical and relatively safe, an effect known as “normalcy bias”.

In 15% of cases we studied, passengers also put pressure on drivers to cross.

When things go wrong, they can go very wrong

Another key reason involves prior experience and perceived probability of adverse outcomes. While 9% reported a negative outcome (such damage to their car or having to be rescued), 91% reported proceeding without any incident. 

The reasons for these crossings were not sudden or impulsive, but often involved what the person saw as “careful consideration” of everyday needs — such as the need to get to work or buy groceries. 

This presents an obvious challenge for emergency authorities. While most people succeed without issues, the cases where something goes wrong can be catastrophic and in some cases fatal.

So, how do we convey the very real risks of floodwater? How do we highlight the need for people to prepare an evacuation plan and avoid entering floodwater?


 

 

I agree with your commentary regarding hazardous conditions and drivers making bad decisions upon encountering.  As I alluded to in my earlier post my primary issue was with the explanation provided for the lack of a snow squall warning as noted in the posted article.  A few weeks ago in a similar situation Mt. Holly was very proactive in issuing a snow squall warning for eastern PA and it verified.  I even posted pictures of the before and during on this board.  As a point of reference the air temperature recorded here just before it hit was 40 so the road impacts were negated even though visibility’s were low.  
My issue with this situation is the fact that air temperatures prior to the Monday event were only in the low to mid 20s.  That is a big deal.  Furthermore the location where the accident took place has an elevation of 1600 ft. so that results in lower air temperatures as compared to surrounding areas.  In addition I 81 is a major trucking corridor in that part of PA.  In fact there are massive distribution centers operated by Walmart, Lowes, Wegmans, and Prologis within walking distance of the accident scene.  It is easy to think that this accident took place in the sticks somewhere and is not in a built up area that would be more impacted by this type of event.  I hope that the decision processes that took place as alluded to in the article are reviewed by the folks up in State College.

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34 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I agree with your commentary regarding hazardous conditions and drivers making bad decisions upon encountering.  As I alluded to in my earlier post my primary issue was with the explanation provided for the lack of a snow squall warning as noted in the posted article.  A few weeks ago in a similar situation Mt. Holly was very proactive in issuing a snow squall warning for eastern PA and it verified.  I even posted pictures of the before and during on this board.  As a point of reference the air temperature recorded here just before it hit was 40 so the road impacts were negated even though visibility’s were low.  
My issue with this situation is the fact that air temperatures prior to the Monday event were only in the low to mid 20s.  That is a big deal.  Furthermore the location where the accident took place has an elevation of 1600 ft. so that results in lower air temperatures as compared to surrounding areas.  In addition I 81 is a major trucking corridor in that part of PA.  In fact there are massive distribution centers operated by Walmart, Lowes, Wegmans, and Prologis within walking distance of the accident scene.  It is easy to think that this accident took place in the sticks somewhere and is not in a built up area that would be more impacted by this type of event.  I hope that the decision processes that took place as alluded to in the article are reviewed by the folks up in State College.

Areas like PA that get frequent snow squalls could probably use a VSL system like they have in other parts of the country.

https://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/speedmgt/ref_mats/fhwasa12022/chap_6.cfm

In order to provide an in-depth analysis of the VSL systems and to obtain additional information on their use in wet weather and issues related to sight distance and stopping distance, various States with active VSL systems were interviewed. These States were chosen from the list of known U.S. installations of VSLs, which can be found in Appendix B, based on their relevance to the purpose of this guide, the level of experience each governing agency had with VSL systems, and the agency's willingness to share detailed information about their systems. The States below have VSL systems that currently incorporate weather conditions in their speed-setting criteria. 

6.1 Alabama 

Alabama DOT (ALDOT) currently operates a VSL system on a 7-mile section of Interstate 10 in Mobile, Alabama. The section of roadway where the VSL system is implemented previously had a very high number of vehicle accidents due to visibility issues caused by fog. Following a very severe crash in 1995 involving 193 vehicles, ALDOT chose to deploy this low visibility warning system.

The VSL system collects data from remote vehicle detectors, fog detection devices, and visibility sensors. The visibility sensors use forward-scatter technology and are installed roughly every mile. The data is reviewed by the TMC operators, who then manually change the speed limit based on the existing weather and traffic conditions. The operators use charts that detail what the posted speed limit should be based on driver visibility. The speed limits are changed in increments of 10 mph within the range of 35 to 65 mph. The system controls a total of 24 VSL signs, but is divided into six zones, in which the speeds in each zone can be set independently. Table 1 below shows the speeds and other strategies based on visibility distance (19

https://www.roadsbridges.com/lake-effect

In Lake County, Ohio, winter weather spells trouble for a stretch of I-90 between S.R. 528 and S.R. 44.

Over a 10-year span, more than 800 winter crashes were recorded along this corridor. On Dec. 8, 2016, an intense snow band that produced massive squalls contributed to a bus crash that led to a multi-car pileup of more than 50 vehicles, a scene all-too familiar to local responding agencies that witnessed a remarkably similar incident in December of the previous year.

Northeastern Ohio is no stranger to winter weather, where areas of Ashtabula, Geauga and Lake counties can see more than 100 in. of snowfall annually. Unique to regions surrounding the Great Lakes, lake-effect snow can deposit more than 1 in. per hour, drastically reducing visibility and resulting in rapid accumulation. Lake-effect snow occurs when fronts of cold air pass over warm bodies of water. The location of I-90 along Lake Erie’s shore makes it a prime candidate for lake-effect squalls, known to surprise even the most experienced drivers.

“Drivers experience a rapid change in weather and road conditions,” explained Lake County Sheriff Daniel Dunlap, regarding winter on I-90. “After driving 60 to 70 mph on relatively clear roadways, they basically come to a curtain of snow. Over a distance of 3-4 miles, [accumulation] can go from very little snow to well over a foot of snow.” After much discussion, partnering agencies agreed that a 10-mph speed-limit reduction was the first step in encouraging drivers to understand the unique threat that snow squalls posed in this corridor.

Finding a fix

Looking for a quick way to reduce the risk and severity of multi-car and secondary crashes, on January 2017 the Ohio Department of Transportation (ODOT) temporarily reduced the 70-mph stretch of I-90 between S.R. 91 and Vrooman Road to 60 mph through April 1. Ongoing discussions with the Lake County Sheriff and Ohio State Highway Patrol made it apparent that speed was a high contributing factor to severe winter crashes. Speed data from the day of the December 2016 crash showed that even after entering the lake-effect snow band, vehicles had continued to travel in excess of 70 mph.

While the seasonal 10-mph speed-limit reduction on I-90 through Lake County caught the attention of the highway’s frequent travelers and local media, critics questioned its effectiveness. On days where no winter weather was predicted during the three-month period of the temporary reduction, commuters found themselves frustrated by the lowered speed limit. At the time, the Ohio Revised Code only allowed for the use of variable speed limits (VSL) within construction work zones. Interest in establishing a VSL corridor grew as local agencies and motorists discussed the safety of the corridor.

“If we can get people to slow down, that will give them more reaction time when there’s a crash ahead,” said Ohio State Highway Patrol Lt. Charles Gullet. “I definitely feel [variable speed limits] will be a step in the right direction to reduce crashes in that area.”

Legislation was passed in Summer 2017 that gave ODOT the go-ahead to move forward with designing a VSL corridor on I-90 between I-71 and the Ohio and Pennsylvania border. The limits of the project were narrowed to the stretch of I-90 between S.R. 44 and S.R. 528, a span that once saw 11 to 50 crashes per snow event—some that were multi-vehicle pileups.

With only a few months to install the new system before winter began in Ohio, ODOT was tasked with the challenge of showing the public that change was on the way. Plans for the new VSL corridor were finalized and sign fabrication began. In preparation for the upcoming snow and ice season, temporary VSL signs similar to those used in work zones were placed in four eastbound and four westbound locations on I-90.

 

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