March 2022

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Today could be our last shot at 70s this month. Models have a wetter pattern by next week with more blocking. Then maybe our last freeze potential in late March.

 

any snow with that late month freeze, Chris?

 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While the blocking pattern coming up doesn’t look like the strongest we have seen this time of year, it’s enough for the backdoor boundary to stall near our area in late March. Less warm temperatures after today than we have been experiencing. Then a slow moving storm system next week under the block. We’ll have to see if NYC can get the last freeze of the season around the 29th which has been the 15 year average.

 

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
Minimum	03-01 (2020)		10-31 (2020)		215
Mean	03-29		11-19		235
Maximum	04-16 (2014)		12-10 (2011)		257
2021	04-03 (2021)	32	11-23 (2021)	32	233
2020	03-01 (2020)	25	10-31 (2020)	32	243
2019	03-18 (2019)	32	11-08 (2019)	29	234
2018	04-09 (2018)	32	11-14 (2018)	32	218
2017	03-23 (2017)	23	11-10 (2017)	25	231
2016	04-10 (2016)	31	12-09 (2016)	29	242
2015	04-01 (2015)	32	11-24 (2015)	32	236
2014	04-16 (2014)	31	11-18 (2014)	24	215
2013	03-23 (2013)	32	11-12 (2013)	31	233
2012	03-27 (2012)	30	11-06 (2012)	31	223
2011	03-29 (2011)	31	12-10 (2011)	32	255
2010	03-27 (2010)	29	12-04 (2010)	32	251
2009	03-24 (2009)	27	12-07 (2009)	32	257
2008	03-30 (2008)	28	11-18 (2008)	29	232
2007	04-09 (2007)	32	11-11 (2007)	31	215

4-16-2014 and 4-9-2018 really stand out, not just because of very late freezes but also because of the snowfalls that accompanied them

 

[Brian5671]

where's all the rain?

[IrishRob17]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

where's all the rain?

It wasn’t supposed to rain all day. An early batch, which already moved through, and see what pops up later this afternoon. 

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I dont go by average temps that doesn't really indicate real warmth to me.  There has to be at least 1 80 degree day otherwise it won't compare to our other top Marches

 

Doesn’t look like there will be any 80° days this March. So we won’t be able to make it 3 in a row. This will only be the 2nd March since 2010 to have the monthly maximum temperature during the first week. 
 

Warmest March temperatures and date since 2010

Newark

3-7-22…...76°

3-26-21….84°

3-20-20…80°

3-15-19….77°

3-30-18...62°

3-1-17…….73°

3-9-16……82°

3-26-15….64°

3-11-14…..67°

3-30-13….61°

3-22-12….79°

3-18-11…..80°

3-20-10….75°

[gravitylover]

Are we really thinking that we're done with snow for the season? I mean, a wet inch here and there are always expected up here through mid April but outside of those events is there anything of consequence implied or expected? We have a good sized road trip (to VA) late next week and I'd really like to take the winter wheels off before we go because the tires that came with the car are useless in the slippery stuff.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

any snow with that late month freeze, Chris?

 

The best we have done during the last week of March since the snowier era began in 2003 has been a trace. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Mar 25 to Mar 31	Missing Count
2021-03-31	0.0	0
2020-03-31	0.0	0
2019-03-31	0.0	0
2018-03-31	T	0
2017-03-31	0.0	0
2016-03-31	0.0	0
2015-03-31	T	0
2014-03-31	T	0
2013-03-31	T	0
2012-03-31	0.0	0
2011-03-31	0.0	0
2010-03-31	0.0	0
2009-03-31	0.0	0
2008-03-31	0.0	0
2007-03-31	0.0	0
2006-03-31	0.0	0
2005-03-31	0.0	0
2004-03-31	0.0	0
2003-03-31	T	0

[Snowlover11]

are we in seattle or what? been foggy the last 3 days.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The best we have done during the last week of March since the snowier era began in 2003 has been a trace. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Mar 25 to Mar 31	Missing Count
2021-03-31	0.0	0
2020-03-31	0.0	0
2019-03-31	0.0	0
2018-03-31	T	0
2017-03-31	0.0	0
2016-03-31	0.0	0
2015-03-31	T	0
2014-03-31	T	0
2013-03-31	T	0
2012-03-31	0.0	0
2011-03-31	0.0	0
2010-03-31	0.0	0
2009-03-31	0.0	0
2008-03-31	0.0	0
2007-03-31	0.0	0
2006-03-31	0.0	0
2005-03-31	0.0	0
2004-03-31	0.0	0
2003-03-31	T	0

yeah really the first week of April has been better for snow for us than the last week of March lol....what are the chances this cold shot gets pushed back to the first few days of April?

 

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

yeah really the first week of April has been better for snow for us than the last week of March lol....what are the chances this cold shot gets pushed back to the first few days of April?

 

The EPS has our next big warm up during the first week of April.

 

 

 

[Shades]

Dropped in to see if there was any disco on the severe threat for this evening. SPC has slight risk knocking on the door of NYC metro, with 2% tornado risk, increasing to 5% in NJ/PA and lower HV, west of the Hudson.

 ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States...
   A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the middle Ohio River Valley,
   and an associated 70+ kt mid-level speed max within its base, will
   continue northeastward and reach eastern New York/western New
   England and nearby middle/northern Appalachians this evening.
   Strengthening forcing for ascent and increasing deep-layer shear
   will influence an increasing broad but modestly moist (50s F surface
   dewpoints) warm sector. Storms should initially develop and
   intensify across west-central portions of Pennsylvania and New York
   through early/mid-afternoon. 

   While warm sector moisture/buoyancy will not be robust (generally
   limited to 500 J/kg MLCAPE), it should be adequate for some severe
   low-topped storms. Relatively long/semi-straight hodographs atop a
   modestly curved near-ground (0-1 km) portion of the hodograph should
   support some low-topped supercells this afternoon, particularly
   across east-central/northeast Pennsylvania and far south-central New
   York. This is where a somewhat more focused potential for a brief
   tornado or two and/or severe hail may exist. Multicells/line
   segments capable of damaging winds are otherwise expected regionally
   through late afternoon and early evening.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The EPS has our next big warm up during the first week of April.

 

 

 

80s incoming

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

80s incoming

it's quite nice today, sunny and warm

[dWave]

Yday was 76, today overacheving with all this sun..sunny and 69..with a little humidity today

[LoboLeader1]

67 here as of 3:30, likely to fall short of the 70 mark this afternoon.

[the_other_guy]

70F

Busted very high

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The EPS has our next big warm up during the first week of April.

 

 

 

Nice cold shot on the euro at 240

[forkyfork]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nice cold shot on the euro at 240

here's what today looked like at day 7

 

[the_other_guy]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Westchester is currently at the 10th warmest March through the 18th. NYC and other areas are just outside the top 10. Plenty of competition for even warmer recent years.

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 18	Missing Count
1	2016-03-18	45.2	0
2	2012-03-18	45.0	0
3	1973-03-18	44.4	0
4	2020-03-18	43.9	1
5	1983-03-18	43.5	0
6	2010-03-18	43.1	0
7	1990-03-18	42.5	1
8	1977-03-18	41.6	0
9	2000-03-18	41.1	7
10	2022-03-18	40.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 18	Missing Count
1	2016-03-18	49.0	0
2	2012-03-18	48.3	0
3	2020-03-18	48.2	0
4	1977-03-18	47.7	0
5	1973-03-18	47.3	0
-	1921-03-18	47.3	0
6	1946-03-18	46.7	0
7	2010-03-18	46.3	0
8	1990-03-18	46.2	0
9	2000-03-18	46.0	0
10	1903-03-18	45.6	0
11	1945-03-18	45.5	0
12	1878-03-18	45.4	0
13	2022-03-18	45.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 18	Missing Count
1	1973-03-18	46.3	0
2	2016-03-18	45.3	0
3	2012-03-18	44.2	0
4	2020-03-18	43.9	0
5	2010-03-18	43.6	0
6	1977-03-18	43.4	0
7	2000-03-18	42.5	0
8	1983-03-18	41.9	0
-	1974-03-18	41.9	0
9	2011-03-18	41.6	0
10	1990-03-18	41.4	0
11	2022-03-18	41.3	0

Given what the forecast looks like, I imagine 2022 will firmly be in the top 10.

[snowman19]

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nice cold shot on the euro at 240

The Euro at day 10 lol Who wants to bet that actual reality 10 days from now is nothing even close to that? How many times have we done this so far? We were supposed to be in a deep arctic freeze right now according to the Euro at the end of February/beginning of March, remember all the hype? Reality….I’m in short sleeves and shorts today…same story for yesterday….

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The Euro at day 10 lol Who wants to bet that actual reality 10 days from now is nothing even close to that? How many times have we done this so far? We were supposed to be in a deep arctic freeze right now according to the Euro at the end of February/beginning of March, remember all the hype? Reality….I’m in short sleeves and shorts today…same story for yesterday….

EPS supports a cool shot but could easily moderate. Additionally cool shots by late March are not very cool. 

Still we likely haven't seen our last freeze.

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

EPS supports a cool shot but could easily moderate. Additionally cool shots by late March are not very cool. 

Still we likely haven't seen our last freeze.

Remember when we had snow showers in May last year.

[CIK62]

The GFS is much warmer, but here is the EURO........   Sorry, but nothing frozen showing to go with this:

[Tatamy]

Mt. Holly issues a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for parts of eastern and NE PA for the incoming squall line.  If you are in western or NW NJ or adjacent NY keep an eye on this one.

[donsutherland1]

Parts of the area could see a shower or thundershower this evening or overnight as a cold front crosses the region. In the wake of the frontal passage, tomorrow will be partly sunny and cooler.

A sustained warmer than normal pattern that could last for at least 1-2 weeks into the closing days of March remains underway. As a consequence, this month could rank among the 15 warmest March cases on record in much of the region.

There remains some potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal.

Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31:

Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2°
New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2°
Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3°

The longer-range guidance has turned cooler for the close of March. Nevertheless, there remains some uncertainty given both the timeframe involved and the small sample sizes for MJO-ENSO cases.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around March 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March.

The SOI was +19.10 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.529 today.

On March 17 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.761 (RMM). The March 16-adjusted amplitude was 2.013 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.3° (3.5° above normal).

 

[snowman19]

67 degrees at 6:30pm in Sloatsburg…the long range op Euro/EPS showed a freezer for right now at the beginning of March….

[forkyfork]

the warm front is blowing through the western metro. 71 at ewr

[SI Mailman]

Just heard my first rumble of thunder for the season

[CIK62]

[Rjay]

Loud thunder