STORMANLI Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 12° See if we can be 50-55° higher on Sunday afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 Weenie Breakfast 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 March 22, 1967 12" closed my Queens school for 2 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 12:09 PM, bluewave said: Yeah, it’s a combination of the +NAO and -PNA that keeps pumping the SE Ridge. The low tracks right over us or to our west around the 12th. We get several days of cold before the SE Ridge flexes a few days later. So it looks like it will be a challenge for NYC and Newark to reach 20” on the season. Expand We have seen this time and again in +NAO patterns…the models grossly underestimate the SE ridge in the long range, only to correct much stronger as we draw closer. If we get to 3/15 without any significant snow, the likelihood of getting a major snow event in the NYC metro after that date is very slim. I mentioned it last night, but if you go back to 1979, you can see how rare NYC snowstorms after 3/15 actually are, the numbers are extremely low when you add them all up over the last 43 years…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be mostly sunny and unseasonably cold today. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 38° Newark: 40° Philadelphia: 44° It will turn warmer tomorrow and Sunday could be exceptionally warm for the season. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 46.1°; 15-Year: 46.5° Newark: 30-Year: 47.1°; 15-Year: 47.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 48.7°; 15-Year: 48.9° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/3/2022 at 10:15 PM, snowman19 said: Go back to 1979 and count all the major NYC snowstorms that occurred after 3/15 over that 43 year period, shouldn’t take you long at all. This is why I’m at a loss when I look at all these “great snow pattern coming mid-month (3/15) and beyond”….maybe central and northern New England score? Even among those freak/fluke, anomalous big NYC snowstorms post 3/15 over the last 43 years, almost every single one of them had solid -NAO blocking, which isn’t happening this time around. Not sure what the hype and excitement is about, despite what JB and his followers are saying on twitter Expand Yep, and a 4" snow event, if it happens, is not considered a "snowy pattern" and would likely be gone by the next day. The late March early April snowy patterns that come to mind are 1982, 1996, 2003 and 2018 and all of those had anomalous blocks and even more to the point, they were all much colder a few weeks before the event (meaning NA was generally colder) than what we have going on right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 12:54 PM, bluewave said: There have only been 7 storms in NYC to produce 4” or more of snow between 3-16 and 3-31 since 1991. A strong -NAO and +PNA is important. So you can see how this composite looks different from the current forecast pattern. NYC 7 snowstorm composite of 4”+ 3-16 to 3-31 since 1991 Expand Chris can you extend this to include April and also generate a map for them....I wanted to see what years I missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 12:31 PM, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts… It will be mostly sunny and unseasonably cold today. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 38° Newark: 40° Philadelphia: 44° It will turn warmer tomorrow and Sunday could be exceptionally warm for the season. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 46.1°; 15-Year: 46.5° Newark: 30-Year: 47.1°; 15-Year: 47.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 48.7°; 15-Year: 48.9° Expand On 3/4/2022 at 12:54 PM, bluewave said: There have only been 7 storms in NYC to produce 4” or more of snow between 3-16 and 3-31 since 1991. A strong -NAO and +PNA is important. So you can see how this composite looks different from the current forecast pattern. NYC 7 snowstorm composite of 4”+ 3-16 to 3-31 since 1991 Expand Good morning Don and BW. During the years I’ve enjoyed weather forums I’ve noticed evolved changes in what folks look at. We have traditionally tracked/discussed excess and deficient rains/snows, tropical systems, excessive heat and cold periods. I notice another arising, thanks in part to our annoyed atmosphere. Short term air temperature ranges. A range of 50 degrees, low to high, is possible in CPK in a little overs two days. There may be others but that one here and in other parts of the country impressed me. Stay well, as always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 12:09 PM, bluewave said: Yeah, it’s a combination of the +NAO and -PNA that keeps pumping the SE Ridge. The low tracks right over us or to our west around the 12th. We get several days of cold before the SE Ridge flexes a few days later. So it looks like it will be a challenge for NYC and Newark to reach 20” on the season. Expand We've already reached and exceeded 20" Chris, it's only a small NW corner of NYC that hasn't 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/3/2022 at 9:37 PM, Doorman said: stay tuned..... Expand What I see is the AO going sky high 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/3/2022 at 3:01 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Sandy has by far the highest reoccurrence rate of any of the above at 1-600 years. The others are probably closer to 1-100 years. what I would love to see is a repeat of the March 1993 event triple phaser displaced 100 miles to the east. That would be our all time snow event Expand Yesss I wonder if that would be anything like Feb 1921 but all snow that would be AMAZING. Look up Feb 1921....there was 4.5" of total precip over 3 days, 18" of it was snow, the rest was a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 1:15 PM, LibertyBell said: What I see is the AO going sky high Expand And the AO dropping 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 1:21 PM, MJO812 said: And the AO dropping Expand Do you mean the NAO dropping Ant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 1:14 PM, LibertyBell said: We've already reached and exceeded 20" Chris, it's only a small NW corner of NYC that hasn't Expand The areas from JFK to LGA and east have reached 20”+. But areas near and west of NYC are all under 20”. Very progresssive +AO pattern favored eastern sections this year. NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 17.5 NJ HARRISON COOP 17.4 CT DARIEN 2.4 NW CoCoRaHS 17.4 CT DARIEN 1.8 ENE CoCoRaHS 17.3 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 17.1 NY GREENWOOD LAKE 3.0 SW CoCoRaHS 17.1 NY SHELTER ISLAND HEIGHTS 2.1 SSW CoCoRaHS 17.0 NY STATEN ISLAND 1.4 SE CoCoRaHS 16.3 NY BROOKLYN 3.1 NW CoCoRaHS 16.3 CT EAST HAVEN 3.5 SSW CoCoRaHS 16.2 NJ FAIR LAWN 1.2 SE CoCoRaHS 16.1 NJ NEW PROVIDENCE 0.8 ESE CoCoRaHS 16.0 NJ OAKLAND 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 15.8 NJ MONTCLAIR 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 15.5 NJ CLARK TWP 1.3 ENE CoCoRaHS 15.5 NJ NORTH ARLINGTON 0.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 15.3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 1:26 PM, bluewave said: The areas from JFK to LGA and east have reached 20”+. But areas near and west of NYC are all under 20”. Very progresssive +AO pattern facired eastern section this year. NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 17.5 NJ HARRISON COOP 17.4 CT DARIEN 2.4 NW CoCoRaHS 17.4 CT DARIEN 1.8 ENE CoCoRaHS 17.3 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 17.1 NY GREENWOOD LAKE 3.0 SW CoCoRaHS 17.1 NY SHELTER ISLAND HEIGHTS 2.1 SSW CoCoRaHS 17.0 NY STATEN ISLAND 1.4 SE CoCoRaHS 16.3 NY BROOKLYN 3.1 NW CoCoRaHS 16.3 CT EAST HAVEN 3.5 SSW CoCoRaHS 16.2 NJ FAIR LAWN 1.2 SE CoCoRaHS 16.1 NJ NEW PROVIDENCE 0.8 ESE CoCoRaHS 16.0 NJ OAKLAND 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 15.8 NJ MONTCLAIR 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 15.5 NJ CLARK TWP 1.3 ENE CoCoRaHS 15.5 NJ NORTH ARLINGTON 0.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 15.3 Expand But what about Brooklyn, I see that places like Sheepshead Bay and etc also got 10-12 inches in that January snowstorm, so I figure Brooklyn should also be over 20"? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 1:27 PM, LibertyBell said: But what about Brooklyn, I see that places like Sheepshead Bay and etc also got 10-12 inches in that January snowstorm, so I figure Brooklyn should also be over 20"? Expand I'm at 22 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 1:24 PM, LibertyBell said: Do you mean the NAO dropping Ant? Expand AO I think it's a long shot to see any more snow. Always a chance but a slim one right now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 10:55 AM, snowman19 said: The pattern shown on the operational models through 3/15 demonstrates the importance of having -NAO block in place….when you don’t, you get this as a result: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2022030406&fh=264&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Expand We all know that. Thanks for posting a 264 hour op run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 12:09 PM, bluewave said: Yeah, it’s a combination of the +NAO and -PNA that keeps pumping the SE Ridge. The low tracks right over us or to our west around the 12th. We get several days of cold before the SE Ridge flexes a few days later. So it looks like it will be a challenge for NYC and Newark to reach 20” on the season. Expand The pattern still looks cold moving forward. Now hopefully we can still get snow but it's going to be a slim chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 1:26 PM, bluewave said: The areas from JFK to LGA and east have reached 20”+. But areas near and west of NYC are all under 20”. Very progresssive +AO pattern favored eastern sections this year. NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 17.5 NJ HARRISON COOP 17.4 CT DARIEN 2.4 NW CoCoRaHS 17.4 CT DARIEN 1.8 ENE CoCoRaHS 17.3 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 17.1 NY GREENWOOD LAKE 3.0 SW CoCoRaHS 17.1 NY SHELTER ISLAND HEIGHTS 2.1 SSW CoCoRaHS 17.0 NY STATEN ISLAND 1.4 SE CoCoRaHS 16.3 NY BROOKLYN 3.1 NW CoCoRaHS 16.3 CT EAST HAVEN 3.5 SSW CoCoRaHS 16.2 NJ FAIR LAWN 1.2 SE CoCoRaHS 16.1 NJ NEW PROVIDENCE 0.8 ESE CoCoRaHS 16.0 NJ OAKLAND 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 15.8 NJ MONTCLAIR 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 15.5 NJ CLARK TWP 1.3 ENE CoCoRaHS 15.5 NJ NORTH ARLINGTON 0.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 15.3 Expand I’m at about 29” which is slightly below normal for the winter if there’s nothing else. I think @NorthShoreWX has 34” a few towns east of me. I’d give this winter a C if we get no more snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 1:27 PM, LibertyBell said: But what about Brooklyn, I see that places like Sheepshead Bay and etc also got 10-12 inches in that January snowstorm, so I figure Brooklyn should also be over 20"? Expand Par for the course when banding is involved. There are always winners and losers in the same county or borough. Very sharp cutoff this year to the west with the progressive +AO. Last winter areas further west did better with the south based -AO tucked in storm track near SNJ. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 1:35 PM, MJO812 said: We all know that. Thanks for posting a 264 hour op run. Expand It’s only ok when you post it because it shows snow huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 1:45 PM, snowman19 said: It’s only ok when you post it because it shows snow huh? Expand I have no clue what you are trying to prove posting that. The pattern doesn't look warm at all. Keep posting nonsense from Twitter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 1:18 PM, LibertyBell said: Yesss I wonder if that would be anything like Feb 1921 but all snow that would be AMAZING. Look up Feb 1921....there was 4.5" of total precip over 3 days, 18" of it was snow, the rest was a mix. Expand That event has always intrigued me. It’s far and above the highest all frozen Precipitation total for NYC. While it wasn’t a record snow event, from a snow removal perspective it’s even more challenging. That would produce some truly incredible and long lasting piles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 1:46 PM, MJO812 said: I have no clue what you are trying to prove posting that. The pattern doesn't look warm at all. Keep posting nonsense from Twitter. Expand The cold doesn’t last lol it’s in and out….SE ridge and AK ridge retrograde FTW lol Dee dee dee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 1:42 PM, bluewave said: Par for the course when banding is involved. There are always winners and losers in the same county or borough. Very sharp cutoff this year to the west with the progressive +AO. Last winter areas further west did better with the south based -AO tucked in storm track near SNJ. Expand It's almost like Manhattan has the least chance to have decent snowfall than the rest of the area, because chances are there will be more snowfall to the east, west, north and south. Manhattan is a true thread the needle location that needs all the indices to be perfectly lined up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 1:46 PM, MJO812 said: I have no clue what you are trying to prove posting that. The pattern doesn't look warm at all. Keep posting nonsense from Twitter. Expand We're now at a time of year where we need anomalous cold to get a decent snow event. "doesn't look warm" isn't going to be good enough 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 1:36 PM, jm1220 said: I’m at about 29” which is slightly below normal for the winter if there’s nothing else. I think @NorthShoreWX has 34” a few towns east of me. I’d give this winter a C if we get no more snow. Expand C sounds about right to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 Solid D is western Hunterdon. Six weeks of cold and a -10" departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 A bit early for us up North to start giving grades but what the hell. I would give it a C- for me up here. Over 30 days of snow cover from January to February but very low snow totals at a clip. I still have solid sleet cover as of this morning, should be gone by Sunday. Hoping for one MASSIVE storm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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