wdrag Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 RJay said go ahead: More wintry threats appear for our area the first 3 weeks or so of March based on any chance of ensemble reliability. Beyond the first day of Spring = March 20, MJO/ENSO trends may be the best choice. The storm track appears to favor the Ohio Valley into the northeast with a tendency for increasing contrast in air masses between the developing colder than NORMAL southern Canada (in response to Arctic Warming aloft that has modeled for at least the past 2 weeks of weeklies by the EC 46 day EPS) and what appears to be a rather warm southeast USA (MLB-there's your cue to get things settled). The ensembles are favoring an energized storm track from about the 5th-6th of March into the middle of the month. Some of us should enjoy more IMPACT snow (or ice if you enjoy that). Increasing solar input will allow faster daytime melting. Whether we can match the recent decade of March heavier snow totals vs December snowfall in NYC? (referring to some earlier NYC subforum documentation that caught our attention earlier in February). Added the CPC updated graphics of weeks 2, 3-4 at 557P/25 6 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 You know things aren't looking good when there isn't a post in the last 22 hours. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: You know things aren't looking good when there isn't a post in the last 22 hours. Good morning Anthony. Its probably because everyone was online trying to order Will's swimsuit calendar. Stay well, as always …. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 Wednesday night/ Thursday is something to watch for. Northern areas probably favored on this one but it may be a minor/moderate event for some. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: You know things aren't looking good when there isn't a post in the last 22 hours. Well it is March… March and April are the two most unpredictable weather months and often the gloomiest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 26, 2022 Author Share Posted February 26, 2022 Good idea not to draw too much conclusion on anything yet, but I do think trends should be monitored. I am pretty sire there will be a snow accumulation that is hazardous in the higher terrain of I84 anytime from late Tue-Thursday morning. The way it's going it looks more like later Wed-Thu as a clipper tries to develop southward. A number of models favor I84 or I90 now... jury out. NYC-I80 nil or just a few showers. After that : think there is alot more coming but spacing the short waves and their proximity to passing through NJ are all in doubt but I have no doubt that there will be several events coming between 5th and 15th for starters. I favor our biggest threat in this short range as sometime between 9th-11th. Again they could all be warm wet I80-LI but there is no doubt in my mind that this could provide interest, at the least I84 corridor northward. So the over under on my evceeding 19" of snow here in Wantage, or should I raise it to 29"? Pathetic for us here in nw NJ but still a winter of interest and I do expect more accums. I like the comment of turning every moderate event to historic. Ain't happening. For now, I'd love to see a 500MB closed low develop s of Li by spring time. Those are the better longer duration storms. For now, I'll settle for events like yesterday, albeit with more snow. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 Every model has this clipper but different locations 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 41 minutes ago, wdrag said: Good idea not to draw too much conclusion on anything yet, but I do think trends should be monitored. I am pretty sire there will be a snow accumulation that is hazardous in the higher terrain of I84 anytime from late Tue-Thursday morning. The way it's going it looks more like later Wed-Thu as a clipper tries to develop southward. A number of models favor I84 or I90 now... jury out. NYC-I80 nil or just a few showers. After that : think there is alot more coming but spacing the short waves and their proximity to passing through NJ are all in doubt but I have no doubt that there will be several events coming between 5th and 15th for starters. I favor our biggest threat in this short range as sometime between 9th-11th. Again they could all be warm wet I80-LI but there is no doubt in my mind that this could provide interest, at the least I84 corridor northward. So the over under on my evceeding 19" of snow here in Wantage, or should I raise it to 29"? Pathetic for us here in nw NJ but still a winter of interest and I do expect more accums. I like the comment of turning every moderate event to historic. Ain't happening. For now, I'd love to see a 500MB closed low develop s of Li by spring time. Those are the better longer duration storms. For now, I'll settle for events like yesterday, albeit with more snow. I don't see how we do not get snow events with this look 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 26, 2022 Author Share Posted February 26, 2022 I agree but timing maybe crucial and the way it’s been going if the anti snow permitting forces have it their way, it won’t. But I expect two more moderate or greater snow and ice events between the 3rd and 15th. As many as yourself and Brooklyn etal note. It’s a good pattern but not necessarily going to produce what we would like. Let’s just use the models smart, realizing their deficiencies. Also since we know the GGEM is better than the UK and GFS since their Dec 1 upgrade: the GGEM GDPS RDPS REGEM whatever you want to call them, they have to be on board to be sure it can happen. No Canadian, no snow is my experience. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 Expectations need to be really tamed here….first and foremost it’s March after all and it gets very, very hard post 3/15 to get anything big snow-wise at this latitude. Second, the real “big” March snowstorms had strong west-based -NAO blocks….that’s not happening this year, they also usually had very anomalous true arctic outbreaks and not seeing signs of a true arctic outbreak here on the models….the Plains, Rockies and Upper Midwest maybe. I wouldn’t rule out some minor/moderate snow and/or ice events (obviously I-84 favored) but the upcoming setup definitely does not scream KU’s riding up the coast to me, that’s for sure 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 2015 and 2017 were recent snowy Marches that I don’t believe featured a -NAO. 1967 was also an old snowy one that didn’t have Atlantic blocking either. And didn’t the March superstorm of 1993 have a poor Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 From just north of Albany to northern New England, March is typically the snowiest month. We too have had some epic Marches in souther New York/New England. What I am seeing on the models shows a fairly typical March from what I can tell. Anyone with a season ski pass to Killington or an Epic pass should have some great weekends this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 16 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said: 2015 and 2017 were recent snowy Marches that I don’t believe featured a -NAO. 1967 was also an old snowy one that didn’t have Atlantic blocking either. And didn’t the March superstorm of 1993 have a poor Atlantic? Correct and add 2019 to that list One 3.5 inch and one 8 inch storm in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 50 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said: 2015 and 2017 were recent snowy Marches that I don’t believe featured a -NAO. 1967 was also an old snowy one that didn’t have Atlantic blocking either. And didn’t the March superstorm of 1993 have a poor Atlantic? 1993 had a record, anomalous end of season true arctic outbreak plunging all the way down to the Gulf coast. The common themes with the March’s that featured major snowstorms/KU’s riding up the coast either had 1) a strong west-based -NAO/Greenland blocking or 2) a late season true arctic outbreak or in some cases both. Can there be a bunch of minor events that add up and give you a snowy March even without a favorable Atlantic (-NAO) or an arctic outbreak? Sure, and it certainly has happened. But regular March “cold” is alot different than Dec, Jan, Feb cold and by 3/15 just by climo alone, major snow events are very hard to come by at our latitude, thicknesses that gave you snow events back during those previous months don’t work in March. And yes, climo, sun angle and length of day are a very real problem in March, by the end of the month, there’s an August sun overhead 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Expectations need to be really tamed here….first and foremost it’s March after all and it gets very, very hard post 3/15 to get anything big snow-wise at this latitude. Second, the real “big” March snowstorms had strong west-based -NAO blocks….that’s not happening this year, they also usually had very anomalous true arctic outbreaks and not seeing signs of a true arctic outbreak here on the models….the Plains, Rockies and Upper Midwest maybe. I wouldn’t rule out some minor/moderate snow and/or ice events (obviously I-84 favored) but the upcoming setup definitely does not scream KU’s riding up the coast to me, that’s for sure Who would expect a KU event in March in NYC? Someone recently showed that its extremely rare for NYC to get >12 inch storms in March. However if we can dink and dunk to another 5 or so inches NYC will hit seasonal their average for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 I need 30" to get to average. Two blockbusters ain't happening. Glad you're closer to seeing it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Who would expect a KU event in March in NYC? Someone recently showed that its extremely rare for NYC to get >12 inch storms in March. However if we can dink and dunk to another 5 or so inches NYC will hit seasonal their average for the winter. The greatest KU in history happened in March. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, Nibor said: The greatest KU in history happened in March. I guess you mean 93 but it wasn't a KU event for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 14 minutes ago, Nibor said: The greatest KU in history happened in March. 8 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: I guess you mean 93 but it wasn't a KU event for NYC. Probably referring to the 1888 blizzard. 1993 was a KU for many though and you'd agree, pretty significant for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 https://www.silive.com/news/2017/03/a_look_back_at_the_5_biggest_m.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 1 hour ago, WarrenCtyWx said: 2015 and 2017 were recent snowy Marches that I don’t believe featured a -NAO. 1967 was also an old snowy one that didn’t have Atlantic blocking either. And didn’t the March superstorm of 1993 have a poor Atlantic? east based -nao 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 Borrowed from NE thread courtesy of ORH wxman 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 2 hours ago, Metasequoia said: Probably referring to the 1888 blizzard. 1993 was a KU for many though and you'd agree, pretty significant for NYC. Both saw 12+ in NYC, are arguably the greatest east coast snowstorms of all time and happened in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 9 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Borrowed from NE thread courtesy of ORH wxman March 13th, no -NAO blocking, -PNA, broad, positively tilted trough, maybe New England gets something out of it, yawn….. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 11 hours ago, Nibor said: Both saw 12+ in NYC, are arguably the greatest east coast snowstorms of all time and happened in March. No, March 1993 wasn't anywhere near one of the greatest east coast storms (the operative word being "coast").... you could say it was the greatest interior northeast snowstorm though (along with greatest interior southern snowstorm too). March 1888 coverage wasn't enough to get it up there either. The greatest east coast snowstorms of all time were..... Jan 1996, Jan 2016, Feb 2003, Feb 1983, Feb 1961, Feb 1978, March 1960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 The look is still present on the GEFS and GEPS. Let's see if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 Any last gasps of winter will probably wait until the second half of the month with Pv split effects (maybe) and mjo cold phases….. My gut tells me it’s over outside a late spring hilltop snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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