wx2fish Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I should have just left the original 6-10" range that I had....even 8-12" may have been an unnecessary blink. Def. the narrow 10-14" slot I had in N ORH hills and se NH. I liked that general idea too near the CF, but so far models were too far west with that by a good bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Just now, George001 said: This storm kinda sucks, what a letdown after the models showing a widespread 12+ for days. George, Honestly, These don't produce 12"+ just for the record, So remember that the next time you hug the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 1 minute ago, George001 said: This storm kinda sucks, what a letdown after the models showing a widespread 12+ for days. Still could make a comeback with the second half, but radar looks bad so that’s not looking likely. Nothing showed 12" for you. How many times do we need to tell you about the clown maps in these events? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Will got some CF enhancement I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 12.1F +SN 4"ish vis 1/8" mile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Just now, wx2fish said: I liked that general idea too near the CF, but so far models were too far west with that by a good bit. I mentioned to Scott yesterday that I felt that was too far west, but at the end of the day, I went with it. Oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Will got some CF enhancement I think. Man, you two just can't lose past few seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 46 minutes ago, wx2fish said: It was alot better earlier in the heavy echos. Pretty good stuff for a swfe. Been worse recently with lighter echoes. Hair under 6" here so far Guidance (at least last night) showed that the dry slot raced in between 500 and 700 mb around 15z. So I can't say I'm surprised that it's getting poor now. 19 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: model fail ftw. why don't we just nowcast every storm from now on. There were signs of Scooter on the runway with his flares. I was always a little skeptical of the northern edge of this. There was broad 700 mb f-gen, but more of a widespread light stuff, vs the 850 mb f-gen which cranked near the MA border. 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Always be skeptical of widespread totals of 12"+ in a SWFE.....regardless of guidance. This is correct. I was on board with a beefier SWFE here, but it's clear that the dry slot aloft is overwhelming good forcing around 850 mb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 This system flew through the area. The NWS 8-12” zone will be more like a 5-9” zone. The QPF was probably there but the snow growth was a limiting factor. Little over 6” here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: George, Honestly, These don't produce 12"+ just for the record, So remember that the next time you hug the models. He'll learn, but it's gonna take a few years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Best snow of the season right now to end this system it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: all the energy moving to the coastal? If modeled correctly, It looked between 17-23z was when the best rates were to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: George, Honestly, These don't produce 12"+ just for the record, So remember that the next time you hug the models. Yeah I should have known but still annoying to see the modes printing out 12+ like 2 days from the storm, only for it to cut back a ton and me ending up with like 6-7 inches. What happened to cause this to underperform so much? Low ratios? My area got boned a bit from the sleet but it looks like even north of the pike isn’t getting great snow rates either, which is surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nothing showed 12" for you. How many times do we need to tell you about the clown maps in these events? I still don’t know where he lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, George001 said: This storm kinda sucks, what a letdown after the models showing a widespread 12+ for days. Still could make a comeback with the second half, but radar looks bad so that’s not looking likely. Never believe more than 10” in a swfe event. 12” is max imwo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 1 minute ago, dryslot said: If modeled correctly, It looked between 17-23z was when the best rates were to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 3 hours ago, DFRI said: Because I can see right through you and your ego. lol. It's just snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nothing showed 12" for you. How many times do we need to tell you about the clown maps in these events? A few runs of the Euro and a couple mesoscale models did with the 10:1 maps, but I’m guessing ratios were less than that. Also got boned by the sleet line setting up north of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: This system flew through the area. The NWS 8-12” zone will be more like a 5-9” zone. The QPF was probably there but the snow growth was a limiting factor. Little over 6” here. I remember some very reputable pro mets were tossing out numbers like 15 and even 18".....as many as these have, we always end up back at lesson 1 in the remediation process. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I still don’t know where he lives Foxboro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: radar pretty shitey to our west but I'm guessing that redevelops I think there will be some redevelopment too, my concern is that will be a narrow area. I would like to see cloud tops cooling if we were to pick up widespread accumulations to end it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Just now, George001 said: Yeah I should have known but still annoying to see the modes printing out 12+ like 2 days from the storm, only for it to cut back a ton and me ending up with like 6-7 inches. What happened to cause this to underperform so much? Low ratios? My area got boned a bit from the sleet but it looks like even north of the pike isn’t getting great snow rates either, which is surprising. That's generally the case as they will cut qpf back, Thats why these SWFE's have a ceiling, Its driven by WAA, Now if this was more of a coastal or a Miller B with well developed centers, Then its a different ball game for many then your relying on the track of those to who gets the goods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 If look carefully on TBOS radar, can see OES echoes that Coastal was talking about moving westward under the heavier echoes moving eastward Getting better snowgrowth now (mixed with sleet) in past 20 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 5 1/2 inches here, getting packed down with the crap falling now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 1 minute ago, wxsniss said: If look carefully on TBOS radar, can see OES echoes that Coastal was talking about moving westward under the heavier echoes moving eastward Getting better snowgrowth now (mixed with sleet) in past 20 min It's really neat to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Just a few flurries here now. Steady precipitation looks over for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 2.4" with 0.18" LE at 11. Currently S- with about half the "flakes" being 0.1" graupel, at <10°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I remember some very reputable pro mets were tossing out numbers like 15 and even 18".....as many as these have, we always end up back at lesson 1 in the remediation process. lol I mean, we have seen these produce a foot in our respective areas but all the ingredients need to come together for that. I was also a little surprised how aggressive the on air Mets were and the NWS. In the end the pike region was the winner, no surprise this year though. no complaints, still a decent storm and the snow has some meat to it. Still only gets me to about 24” for the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Wow...best periodI have seen now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: I mean, we have seen these produce a foot in our respective areas but all the ingredients need to come together for that. I was also a little surprised how aggressive the on air Mets were and the NWS. In the end the pike region was the winner, no surprise this year though. no complaints, still a decent storm and the snow has some meat to it. Still only gets me to about 24” for the year. BOS 6.9". So yeah it might be pike area near Will. Thought SNH would do a bit better, but they have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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