rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 14 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The secondary barely looks to form, which is why precip. is being cut off from the east as well. Looks like my call of 3 to 6 inches from Sunday with all the reasons I thought might happen will come to fruition. You never said that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Not much has really changed TBH, all the meso-models have 0.5"-0.75" liquid which is what the NWS and WPC have.. Ratios should be better as one heads north.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: You never said that Um, yes I did. I've mentioned it numerous times throughout the week. I always get hopeful if amounts look like they're going to be more though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: You never said that Are you done trolling me? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 If you look at the 0Z runs from last night (Thursday) to tonight's (Friday), it's a huge difference though. Talk about a north shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 On 2/21/2022 at 11:45 AM, tombo82685 said: These systems are notorious for late in the game warm pushes On 2/21/2022 at 9:10 AM, tombo82685 said: Reason why I’m thinking mix gets to i90. Globals will miss sneaky warm layers as we have seen all winter long. Let’s see what mesos show as we get closer in. Regardless still looks like 4-8” event region wide Not bad thoughts from Monday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Still looks like we could be dealing with a little downsloping, just not as pronounced as the NE wind..The same brick wall tombo deals with on a westerly flow, I deal with on an NE/E flow lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Still looks like we could be dealing with a little downsloping, just not as pronounced as the NE wind..The same brick wall tombo deals with on a westerly flow, I deal with on an NE/E flow lol Have fun with it man, it’s brutal. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 I better be careful about teasing Matt. He might shiv a bitch. God damn, those numbers…..wtf 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I better be careful about teasing Matt. He might shiv a bitch. God damn, those numbers…..wtf Lol. You're safe. I promise. Oh, and those Syracuse totals get a Bronze trophy? No. Just no. More like a Gold Pile of Sleet covered dog doo doo. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I better be careful about teasing Matt. He might shiv a bitch. God damn, those numbers…..wtf Syracuse at nearly half of their usual is nuts. Albany well below half. Binghamton down almost 40% too. This should at least let ENY cash in pretty well. Only BUF-ROC close to average. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: Syracuse at nearly half of their usual is nuts. Albany well below half. Binghamton down almost 40% too. This should at least let ENY cash in pretty well. Only BUF-ROC close to average. Yep. 4 winters of well-below normal snowfall (my first winter was on the Tug during one of their worst snowfall winters), 2 consecutive summers with record breaking heat, and record warm falls have made me pretty hissy pissy in terms of Syracuse weather. It's been a bad stretch for a cold/snow lover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yep. 4 winters of well-below normal snowfall (my first winter was on the Tug during one of their worst snowfall winters), 2 consecutive summers with record breaking heat, and record warm falls have made me pretty hissy pissy in terms of Syracuse weather. It's been a bad stretch for a cold/snow lover. Honestly I'm enjoying the summer and the warmer fall (outdoor weather well into October). My ideal is 6 months of 25 and snow, followed by 6 months of 85 and sun. No in between. What I can't stand is the s___ like April and November when it's 50 degrees and drizzly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 That was actually a somewhat normal winter Matt, it just snowed everytime you left lol I recorded 175" in Altmar.. It's actually the last solid year this area has had lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: Honestly I'm enjoying the summer and the warmer fall (outdoor weather well into October). My ideal is 6 months of 25 and snow, followed by 6 months of 85 and sun. No in between. What I can't stand is the s___ like April and November when it's 50 degrees and drizzly. The northern Plains would do you well. That's like their kind of climate...can be a bit arid though. I could do without Spring. For me it's: November through April - 20s and snow May through August - mid 60s to mid 70s with blue skies with puffy cumulus clouds, low humidity, gentle breeze and crisp nights in the 40s/50 degrees September and October - gloriously sunny days with NO WIND and highs in the 50s with lows in the 30s. The UP of MIchigan would do me well. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: That was actually a somewhat normal winter Matt, it just snowed everytime you left lol I recorded 175" in Altmar.. It's actually the last solid year this area has had lol Thanks for posting. I've looked at that before and have highly doubted the South Redfield totals. It definitely wasn't that much that winter. There was not one substantial lake effect event that winter for the Southern Tug. I think maybe like 2 6 to 10 inch events. (Check lake effect page..lol) There were also many thaws that winter, so a solid snowpack was hard to come by. I remember several times seeing the ground and flooded yards throughout that winter up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 20 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: Syracuse at nearly half of their usual is nuts. Albany well below half. Binghamton down almost 40% too. This should at least let ENY cash in pretty well. Only BUF-ROC close to average. I mean we’re kind of above at KBUF…put down the sharpened spoon Matt… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The northern Plains would do you well. That's like their kind of climate...can be a bit arid though. I could do without Spring. For me it's: November through April - 20s and snow May through August - mid 60s to mid 70s with blue skies with puffy cumulus clouds, low humidity, gentle breeze and crisp nights in the 40s/50 degrees September and October - gloriously sunny days with NO WIND and highs in the 50s with lows in the 30s. The UP of MIchigan would do me well. lol I was gonna say maybe the Sierras or Colorado for you. Somewhere the elevation produces a lot of snow in winter and mild temps in summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Check out that cutoff between Cortland and BGM/ITH/ELM.... geesh. Hopefully the cold can hold in at all layers here and the Low stays far enough south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I mean we’re kind of above at KBUF…put down the sharpened spoon Matt… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2022 Author Share Posted February 25, 2022 Jamestown 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Check out the chaos of the GFS for WNY which came NORTH (lol): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Will be surprised if Bgm keeps the WSW going with the overnight update save maybe Oneida County. Atleast with radar being down they can blame the bust on that and not being able to follow the mix line movement on the coefficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Will be surprised if Bgm keeps the WSW going with the overnight update save maybe Oneida County. Atleast with radar being down they can blame the bust on that and not being able to follow the mix line movement on the coefficient. They recently updated it just before 10 (so after seeing those meso runs) and just added the wording of "sleet and freezing rain possible" as well. ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected and possibly sleet and freezing rain. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 6 to 10 inches. Total ice accumulation of less than a tenth of an inch. * WHERE...In New York; Onondaga, Madison, Oneida, Cortland, Chenango, Otsego, Delaware and Sullivan counties. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 4 PM Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Main items of note from observations upstream late afternoon into this evening indicate overall theme of going forecast remains in tact. Still looks like a bit more QPF occurs in the 06z-09z/1A-4A time frame over the Southern Tier. Ptype remains a tough diagnostic issue, mainly in terms of how far north mix will get over western NY. Overall, seems warm layer is farther north than expected in Ohio with CLE reporting FZRA as ptype most of the evening, sometime as a mix or other times exclusively. Initial signs of this into NY is the wintry mix that is moving across Southern Tier currently ahead of schedule (see BFD reporting FZRA now). Another more stout warm layer is expected to lift across Southern Tier overnight and already introduced more FZRA/PL or even just strictly FZRA to the forecast to account for this. Still appears that cutoff for snow and sleet will stay south of the Thruway, but it will be close. Period of most ice would be after midnight, maximized along and south of Southern Tier Expressway/I-86. Heaviest snow over western NY (snowfall rates 0.5 to 1.0 inch per hour) occurs after 08z and runs through 14z, so the morning commute will be difficult for both BUF and ROC metro areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 28 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Check out the chaos of the GFS for WNY which came NORTH (lol): Well…it was the same for 23 runs…and then this. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Just now, rochesterdave said: Well…it was the same for 23 runs…and then this. Lol To think...the ICON saw this and held on to it for a few days while none of the others did.... 1 point for Icon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Well, look who decided to wake up from its Labatts coma and come to work... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2022 Author Share Posted February 25, 2022 Models have trended north with every storm this winter within 12-24 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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