Spring/Summer 2022 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion.

[Carvers Gap]

On 7/3/2022 at 11:03 AM, Matthew70 said:

Looks like the heat is trying to be in this area for a few days this coming week.  I will be at beach so hoping no rain & a clean blue ocean.  

Yeah, the return to moderation was a total mirage.   When there is heat modeled for Texas, it usually finds a way into our area.  The furnace is on with no end in sight.  This summer is going to be remembered as a hot one.  A good chunk of the forum area is now showing up on the drought monitor.  I have zero idea how my area is not.  I have had about .50 of an inch of rain in three weeks.  We had one rainy-sh day and one stray shower which barely got the dirt wet.  My yard is fried.  I have quite watering it.  At this point, I am just watering the garden.  

[Met1985]

On 7/4/2022 at 9:16 PM, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, the return to moderation was a total mirage.   When there is heat modeled for Texas, it usually finds a way into our area.  The furnace is on with no end in sight.  This summer is going to be remembered as a hot one.  A good chunk of the forum area is now showing up on the drought monitor.  I have zero idea how my area is not.  I have had about .50 of an inch of rain in three weeks.  We had one rainy-sh day and one stray shower which barely got the dirt wet.  My yard is fried.  I have quite watering it.  At this point, I am just watering the garden.  

Long range into the SE looks great for us. Looks like a decent trough may come through 3rd week this month.

[Matthew70]

On 7/5/2022 at 8:32 PM, Met1985 said:

Long range into the SE looks great for us. Looks like a decent trough may come through 3rd week this month.

LR is not to be trusted.  It’s been wrong the majority of times.  Plus even with cooler near seasonal temps.  No rain is setting up crops to be a huge bust & fire dangers increasing. Just not a pretty picture if things don’t change very soon.

[Carvers Gap]

On 7/5/2022 at 9:32 PM, Met1985 said:

Long range into the SE looks great for us. Looks like a decent trough may come through 3rd week this month.

Cosgrove mentioned on FB that a pattern shakeup was possible in about a month.  If I read it correctly, the wheels might be starting to turn on that now, but will take some time for the current pattern to decay.  We have been roasting here.  That would be a welcome change, even if temporary.  

On a positive note, it has been raining for about three hours here.  Feels a bit foreign to hear rain falling for that long!

[Carvers Gap]

On 7/7/2022 at 12:03 AM, Matthew70 said:

LR is not to be trusted.  It’s been wrong the majority of times.  Plus even with cooler near seasonal temps.  No rain is setting up crops to be a huge bust & fire dangers increasing. Just not a pretty picture if things don’t change very soon.

The 0z GFS is very warm late in the run.  Most cool downs have not verified.   We may, however, get a slight reprieve here before descending into the next heat wave later this month.   

[Carvers Gap]

Since my last posts about precip, we have received a out 2” of desperately needed rain IMBY.  

[Met1985]

12 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Cosgrove mentioned on FB that a pattern shakeup was possible in about a month.  If I read it correctly, the wheels might be starting to turn on that now, but will take some time for the current pattern to decay.  We have been roasting here.  That would be a welcome change, even if temporary.  

On a positive note, it has been raining for about three hours here.  Feels a bit foreign to hear rain falling for that long!

Yeah yall have been getting hit hard that way especially in the valley. Talked to a friend in KNOXVILLE the other day and hw said it hit 100 there this weekend. It's the humidity for me. Hopefully we get a reprieve. 

[nrgjeff]

Looks like the core of the heat ridge wants to head out West for much of the rest of July, but could return to the Midwest late month.

Would love an order of the Sunday CFS, normal through Aug. However global wind and others hint we are not done with AN heat in the Southeast. 

Hoping to get more rain showers while the ridge is centered out West. Guess we were due for a hot summer. 

[nrgjeff]

ECMWF weekly UPDATE: After the turd balance of July, ECW want to back off to normal August in the Southeast. They still torch the Plains and Midwest; so, some of that heat will bleed in here at times. 

Gonna need a barf bag!

[Carvers Gap]

Pretty amazing how quiet the tropics are this year(so far).  Just looking at the LR, that might change in August.

[nrgjeff]

Chunks of northern Middle and East Tennessee are in the WPC excessive rainfall outlook the next two days. My how things change. Gotta love the Tennessee Valley.

About the heat. Fades middle of the week through next weekend if no sharp model changes. More thundershowers. About the following week to start August. Oh wait back in Kindergarten they said if you don't have anything nice to say...

[1234snow]

This summer has been so interesting. Periods of drought and heat then several days of good rain back to stifling heat. This weekend was a hot one but now back to several days of a good chance of rain.

[1234snow]

Chunks of northern Middle and East Tennessee are in the WPC excessive rainfall outlook the next two days. My how things change. Gotta love the Tennessee Valley.
About the heat. Fades middle of the week through next weekend if no sharp model changes. More thundershowers. About the following week to start August. Oh wait back in Kindergarten they said if you don't have anything nice to say...

Some chunk of the Valley is under the slight risk for excessive rainfall for every day out to Day 5.

[John1122]

The big rainer yesterday put down 1-2 inches across the area here. Closing in on 15 inches for the last 30 days here with an area of 15-20 just west of me in Scott County. More big storms tomorrow would easily trigger flooding I'd think.

[Carvers Gap]

18 hours ago, 1234snow said:

This summer has been so interesting. Periods of drought and heat then several days of good rain back to stifling heat. This weekend was a hot one but now back to several days of a good chance of rain.

Yeah, this kind of how I remember it as a kid.  What I fear the most are the extended droughts like the year we had the forest fire on the west slopes of the Smokies.  The back and forth pattern with July being rainy is what I remember.  I also remember August being almost always hot.  That said, usually we would get our first cold front before the middle of September.  There is less fall than when I was a kid.  On the flip side, it almost never snowed at my home(Knoxville then) before Jan1.  Lately, we have had more snow in Nov/Dec than when I was a kid.  During the past few winters, it seems like most of the winter wx IMBY has come prior to Jan1.  But still, one common denominator of the last 20 years seems to be that summer lasts well into September.  It would be nice to catch an early fall this year though I don't expect it due to La Nina.  

As an aside and not directed at 1234....Man, I feel terrible for the folks in Yosemite right now.  Big fire there.  What is crazy is that the Cascades north of California seemed to have done ok in regards to snow pack.  That said, it is has been HOT out West in places and no amount of snowpack is going to keep the forests from drying out in that heat.  Sometimes, great snowpack just adds more fuel for the fire season later that summer.

[Carvers Gap]

One the plus side, my yard was gone from "crispy brown" to green in the places which are still alive!  Whiplash gardening this summer to paraphrase @1234snow.

[1234snow]

One the plus side, my yard was gone from "crispy brown" to green in the places which are still alive!  Whiplash gardening this summer to paraphrase [mention=6441]1234snow[/mention].

Got hit twice today by storms. Radar estimate is around .75. New Tazewell, Tazewell, TN shows 2-3 inches of rain and under a FFW.

[dwagner88]

I've had one good rainstorm all summer. One. It was last Thursday morning. I have zero confidence in any significant rain over the next week. Looks like the majority will be focused on I-40. I'm destroying my wallet watering new sod.

[nrgjeff]

Oh yeah this is a bad year for new sod. Established lawns recovered with the rains after the 4th of July. Sod is just so needy until it roots deeper. 

I also have little faith in much rain. Today the ARWs/NSSL had phantom rain again. NAM/HRRR are Dr. No short-term and right. Maybe Friday or over the weekend.

Note to the forum this is a south of I-40 problem, Chattanooga back toward Memphis. When is fall? I miss football!

[BlunderStorm]

Good disco by MRX this morning.

X000 FXUS64 KMRX 280744 AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
344 AM EDT Thu Jul 28 2022
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)...
Key Messages:
1. Flash Flooding threat for our southwest VA counties through late
morning/early afternoon, Flood Watch in place through 18Z.
2. Conditional Flash Flood threat this afternoon, once again, mainly
along and north of I-40.
3. Isolated damaging wind gusts possible with any stronger storm
this afternoon.

Discussion:
Now through sunrise:
Periods of showers and storms will move across southwest VA
through at least late morning according to the last few runs of
the HRRR. Periods of moderate to heavy rain are expected. Current
1 hr FFG values across our SWVA counties ranges from 0.75 to 1.25"
with 3 hr FFG values from 1 to 2". The ongoing and additional
rainfall that is expected will likely cause localized flash
flooding, depending on where the heaviest rainfall occurs. For
this reason, went ahead and issued a Flood Watch for Flash
flooding through 18Z for our SWVA counties. The HRRR has also
shown additional showers and storms developing along the KY/TN
border, also through late morning. Radar returns are beginning to
increase across these areas, confirming what the HRRR has been
showing. This will also be an area to watch for potential isolated
flash flooding but not confident enough to include these areas
within a Flood Watch at this time. Will continue to monitor things
closely.

The rest of the day:
The forecast over the past few days has been very frustrating to
say the least. As mentioned in previous discussions, it`s very
difficult to pinpoint where convection will be focused in a weakly
forced environment. The good news, we`ve missed out on the heaviest
rainfall over the past few days as it has largely remained to our
north. The bad news, FFG values still remain very low for areas
north of I-40, especially across southwest VA. The environment for
today remains unchanged with a frontal boundary to our north and
high PWs still in place, so moderate to heavy rainfall is still
expected with any convection that develops. As of now, the CAMs seem
to show a little better coverage of showers and storms across our
area through the day compared to previous days but we will see
how that goes. As with the past few days, an isolated flash
flooding threat still exists for today but is conditional on the
amount of shower/storm coverage we see. In addition to the flood
threat, we will also see a threat of isolated damaging wind gusts
with any stronger storms if they develop, mainly during the
afternoon hours.
POPs will continue into the overnight hours as a weak shortwave
impulse moves through the upper trough, keeping isolated to
scattered showers and storms going through the night. Highest POPs
will be across far northern areas. Patchy fog likely overnight
across areas that see rainfall through the day today.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)...
Key Messages:
1. Unsettled pattern through the extended period with high rain
chances through about Monday.
2. Locally heavy rainfall and flooding possible through the weekend.
3. Ridging aloft begins to build back over the region Tuesday with
more diurnally driven convection.
Discussion:
On Friday, a frontal boundary will be lying across central Kentucky
and western Tennessee early in the day and then shift south to the
southern areas of east Tennessee by evening. High precipitable water
values and CAPE values up to around 2000 J/KG during the afternoon
could cause some strong winds with the storms Friday and possibly
Saturday and Sunday if there is enough heating.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move across
the northern parts of the CWA early in the day Friday. Highest
rainfall totals for the forecast area for the first day of the
extended forecast look to be over the same area as Thursday and a
second area over the southern Valley. The front is forecast to shift
farther south during the day Friday with heavy rainfall shifting
southward out of the northern area. Then Saturday more shortwaves
will move from west to east along the front and affect much of east
Tennessee with heavy rainfall.Sunday the front seems to lift north
again with heavier rainfall across the northern sections. The broad
troughing over the eastern states deepens Monday night and Tuesday
with Ridging aloft building in from the central states back into the
Tennessee Valley. Convection will then become more diurnally driven
Tuesday and especially Wednesday and fast moving shortwaves will
only bring light amounts of rainfall to the region. The showers and
storms will be more typical afternoon and evening convection
triggered by heating. High temperatures will stay mostly below
normal...in the 80s through the period.
TD
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CHA and TYS will be VFR through the period, other PROB30 MVFR for
afternoon storms. Showers and storms are currently just north of
TRI across southwest VA. A few showers may move across TRI through
sunrise, resulting in MVFR conditions. Then, VFR conditions
through the rest of period except for PROB30 MVFR for late
morning/early afternoon storms. Winds will generally be 10 kts or
less from the southwest at all sites.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             92  74  90  73  88 /  50  40  80  50  70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  90  73  86  71  85 /  70  40  80  60  70
Oak Ridge, TN                       89  72  85  71  84 /  70  50  80  60  60
Tri Cities Airport, TN              86  70  83  68  82 /  60  40  80  50  60
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for Lee-Russell-Scott
     VA-Washington VA-Wise.

[8283 El Nino Baby]

On 7/26/2022 at 3:12 PM, nrgjeff said:

Oh yeah this is a bad year for new sod. Established lawns recovered with the rains after the 4th of July. Sod is just so needy until it roots deeper. 

I also have little faith in much rain. Today the ARWs/NSSL had phantom rain again. NAM/HRRR are Dr. No short-term and right. Maybe Friday or over the weekend.

Note to the forum this is a south of I-40 problem, Chattanooga back toward Memphis. When is fall? I miss football!

Microclimates save me I guess. I am 60 miles north of you on the Plateau, which is still well south of I40 and I am at 7 inches so far in July. However, it all came quick hitting downpours, so it still somehow feels like its been a dry month.

[nrgjeff]

Yes @8283 El Nino Baby the Plateau, Walden's Ridge and the like are a whole other world. Winter they get snow while we get cold rain.

I have come to the conclusion that a significant tropical system will be required to break the Eastern North American ridge before Labor Day or even mid-Sept. Otherwise it's gonna be a cruel something until October.

Short-term addition: 18Z guidance Thursday for Friday has.. You guessed it! Dry friggin fropa for KCHA.

[nrgjeff]

Complaining occasionally works. Got a thunderstorm last night. And now...

17 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Short-term addition: 18Z guidance Thursday for Friday has.. You guessed it! Dry friggin fropa for KCHA.

[Windspeed]

[Carvers Gap]

20 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Yes @8283 El Nino Baby the Plateau, Walden's Ridge and the like are a whole other world. Winter they get snow while we get cold rain.

I have come to the conclusion that a significant tropical system will be required to break the Eastern North American ridge before Labor Day or even mid-Sept. Otherwise it's gonna be a cruel something until October.

Short-term addition: 18Z guidance Thursday for Friday has.. You guessed it! Dry friggin fropa for KCHA.

Yeah, Nina summers never want to end.  I am not sure I can think of one which ended early.  Oddly, I think I remember @John1122mentioning that some Nina summers can have a lot of precip.  Right now, it is a good lesson on how Kingsport gets much less precip than every one else(even within a short distance), and I am not complaining this go around.  Storms are sliding through @1234snow's neighborhood currently.  We had one passing shower here.  About 5 miles to my north, flood warnings are posted due to training of storms.  It has been that way all week.  We have had our share of rain, but nothing like what the folks in SW VA and KY are experiencing.  Temps IMBY have finals moderated from the 90s furnace that consumed the first half of summer.  The humidity is another story altogether.  

 

And yes, this pattern has been locked in for weeks.  Ridging out West and ridging over the SE.  The Plains...better make sure their AC is primed and working.  Man.

[Carvers Gap]

Totally knew this would happen after stating the above....now the system has dropped south of the VA line.  Going to get a few rounds of rain here it looks like.

[Windspeed]

Totally knew this would happen after stating the above....now the system has dropped south of the VA line.  Going to get a few rounds of rain here it looks like.

Training cells are definitely a concern into the evening. Some portions of Sullivan Co. are pushing 2" already. Hopefully this convection can lift over the Apps. in a hurry.

[jaxjagman]

Parts of the NW Tn is in a extreme drought and around the Ozarks,rest of us is in a moderate.severe west of I-65 and in the south,just as bad around Chatty,Alabama/Tn line .We got some rain yesterday and early this morn but would have liked more.Boundary should lift northward around Sunday so maybe some training cells,anything is better than nothing.Brutal summer here and especially west of us

[Carvers Gap]

6 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Parts of the NW Tn is in a extreme drought and around the Ozarks,rest of us is in a moderate.severe west of I-65 and in the south,just as bad around Chatty,Alabama/Tn line .We got some rain yesterday and early this morn but would have liked more.Boundary should lift northward around Sunday so maybe some training cells,anything is better than nothing.Brutal summer here and especially west of us

Not good.  Yeah, it was terrible here until about three weeks ago.  Pretty sure at one point we were pushing 4 weeks with barely a drop in my back yard.  About 20% of my yard is still just dead and soggy brown.  The other half looks like Florida during rainy season - lush and green.  It is surreal to see this much rain after barely a drop.  The effects of the drought(which just ended) are numerous.  If we had gone about two more weeks, we would have had severe fire issues.  Spring was very dry IMBY.  I raise a batch of beans on city water pretty much.

For you folks in KY and Virginia, my heart goes out to your communities.  I cannot imagine.  Hang in there.

[1234snow]

Next round of rain is moving in. Unfortunately WPC has placed Eastern KY and a small portion of SWVA in a moderate risk for flash flooding today. Hopefully that is just a precautionary measure due to the recent devastation. The rest of TN is in the slight category.

Radar estimated that 4-5 inches of rain fell since Monday here at the house. No flooding issues here thankfully unlike our neighbors to the north and northwest in SWVA/KY. I finally got my jungle of a yard mowed on Saturday.